MBG Markets：美国十年期国债收益率走低，美元短线或将继续承压

Quantitative trading strategy
虽然近几周我们的量化交易策略净值有所回落，但回撤幅度相对有限；并且值得注意的是，货币市场在2020年展现出稳固并明显的每周动量反转效应。投资者下半年可继续参考我们的每周建议组合。另外，本周组合有一定调整。
MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7货币对冲组合》。组合净值上周下跌0.01%。本周组合及截至北京时间8month18day6:27The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of safe haven currencies,周一，美元指数连续第四个交易日下跌。一方面是因纽约州制造业扩张速度低于预期，预示经济复苏力道可能不足。另外，风险偏好的回升，也提振了美股升向历史高位，削弱了美元需求。考虑到美国新一轮援助计划仍未达成一致，且美国确诊病例增加，市场押注美联储将继续扩大刺激。因此，短线维持美元指数为震荡偏弱结构。

英镑方面，周一，英镑兑美元升0.15%。主要是因昨日，英国首相府表示，仍然相信下个月可以与欧盟达成脱欧后贸易协议，提振了英镑。技术上，英镑目前徘徊于五个月高位附近，均线呈现多头排列，KD指标显示调整已经接近尾声，因此，短线或许有继续走高的需求。

In terms of commodity currency,周一，澳元兑美元大涨0.61%。一方面是因美元的回落，另一方面澳大利亚就业数据的利好以及中国经济的继续回升也支撑了澳元。今天上午09:30，澳洲联储将公布8月货币政策会议纪要。此前，澳洲联储主席洛威指出，澳洲低利率水平或将长期维持，这可能导致澳元承压。

commodity market

Trading preference –  今日维持crude oil（WTI）为震荡偏多、gold（XAU）For oscillating structures.

黄金方面[size=; font-size: inherit,inherit]，周一，金价大涨40美元，盘中一度站上1990关口，主要是因美债收益率回落导致美元走弱，以及巴菲特购买主要金矿公司股份，提振了投资者的情绪。短线来看，10日均线存在一定压力，因此这个位置有震荡的需求。

In terms of oil prices,周一，油价涨1.9%。一方面是因投资者对经济复苏的乐观情绪提振了石油需求的预期；另一方面，欧佩克+技术委员会预计7月份的减产执行率将达到95%也提振了油价。因此，短线维持油价为震荡偏多结构。

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，周一，恒指小幅高开，午间收涨1.28%，尾盘涨幅收窄，收盘涨0.65%。盘面上，中资券商股、黄金及贵金属板块领涨大市，汽车股、半导体板块阴跌。技术上看，继续关注24500Support and26000The pressure.

abstract

CFTC资金流数据显示，加元、美元空头仍处于极值，因此，预计短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨，另外，欧元、瑞郎、澳元多头也处于极值。

Europe/USA and Australia/美多头可继续持有，但如遇冲高可兑现部分利润。

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.
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