孙奕臣；8.17黄金有望上涨吗？晚间黄金原油走势分析及行情预测

The daily market fluctuations never stop, there is no need to worry about not having the opportunity to recover losses, and the money invested in the market will never be earned. If one persists in making up for losses at this time and refuses to stop, it is likely to incur even greater losses. Because at this point, your trading mindset has become chaotic and you have lost the ability to calmly observe the market. As the saying goes, those who are in the game are lost, while those who are on the sidelines are clear. Step back and re-examine the changes in the market is the only way to gain the ability to judge market trends.


　　goldLatest Market Analysis


Friday（8month14Japanese goldT+DClosing up0.84%to416.42element/Gram; silverT+DClosing up2.56%to6078element/千克。美元指数依旧弱势，黄金在此前多头获利了结之后，再度陷入多空博弈中。孙奕臣认为长期内美元将走软，原因为美联储已经转移到零利率政策，由于新冠病毒的影响，美国经济增长的表现可能不及其他主要经济体，政治不确定性上升，不断增加的美国预算赤字将需要外国资本融资；美联储已表示在可预见的未来，将把利率维持在接近零水平。欧元区第二季度季调后GDP符合预期，但欧元区第二季度季调后就业人数季率录得-2.8%, creating1995年有记录以来新低。美国劳动力市场的压力略有减轻，但随着失业补助到期，这一降幅也支撑了美国失业救济可能进一步收紧。目前贵金属价格或仍暂时陷于震荡格局之中，但由于目前低利率以及大力度的量化宽松政策导向依然不会轻易改变，故此未来贵金属走势依然相对可期。


　　黄金周五日内围绕在1960-40Between oscillations, that is, around1950Up and down competition, according to the current daily structure, the short-term market is in a state of competition5、20Daily line1950上下，方向还是很不确定的，如果今日能收于1950上方，那么后期行情可能还会有一定的惯性延伸回弹，不过空间依旧不会很大，上方着重也还是要关注1970The pressure test in the area shows that the gold daily line has been consolidating at a high level after a sharp rise yesterday, and is currently hovering around20Near the daily moving average.MACDDead cross, green kinetic energy column remains stable,KDJDead cross, random indicator decline in50附近放缓，目前有勾头向上趋势，指示黄金看跌动能可能放缓，4From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the gold price is hitting a low point1862The US dollar rebounded and its upward trend stopped at100Mean Square1966Near.MACDGolden cross, the red kinetic energy column gradually expands,KDJ金叉，随机指标持续向上触及超买水平，指示黄金看涨压力强化，短线或整固，从走势来看，黄金短线多空焦灼，走势料相对震荡，所以操作上孙奕臣建议低多看涨为主，高空为辅。上方短期重点关注1960-1965Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1935-1930一线支撑。目前手上有低位空单和高位多单不知道如何处理或者近期出现严重亏损可添加孙奕臣老师微信请咨询孙奕臣的官微：syc475。寻求帮助，我会抽空给予我粉丝最大的帮助。


　　crude oilLatest Market Analysis


Friday(8month14day)，国际油价下跌，因新冠疫情持续重创全球经济，OPECandIEA相继下调全球需求预估。俄罗斯油长诺瓦克认为，OPEC+会议不会调整现行减产政策。不过美国和中国需求复苏均不乏亮点，料限制油价回落空间。根据俄罗斯多家新闻机构周四报导，孙奕臣认为即将举行的OPEC+Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee(JMMC)会议不会就减产迅速做出新的决定。石油输出国组织和包括俄罗斯在内的合作伙伴自五月以来联合减产10%，以解决全球新冠危机引发的严重需求萎缩。不过，美国政府数据显示，上周原油、汽油和馏分油库存均下降，炼厂加大生产且成品油需求改善。晨雷认为，中国柴油需求年内可能会创历史新高，因受益于积极的刺激政策，建筑和运输活动热情被点燃，公路货运活跃，重型卡车销售迅速复苏。


　　原油日线级别日线上看，布林带缩口略微向上运行，MA5Mean Square andMA10The moving average runs to the right with stickiness, and the long period moving average runs with multiple heads arranged below to form support,KThe line intersects between the upper tracks in Bolin,MACDThe fast and slow lines are located above the zero axis and run smoothly,KDJ三线呈金叉窄口缓和上行，日图行情整体表现震荡偏多头趋势，但昨日维持在42.90一带承压下行，整体符合日评给出的震荡区间，短期内暂时在43.0-41.拉锯。本周又是一周震荡并没有突破的迹象。今日周线收官之作，依旧看震荡收尾，而上方区间高点43.仍是压制点，但未突破前高43.50之前，震荡节奏不改。随后回撤给到了这波上涨的百分之50Retreat position41.0位置止跌，进一步表现了原油多头上涨意愿，若原油守住41-41.5位置支撑，大概率原油有望出现进一步上探的概率。所以综合分析操作上孙奕臣建议回落做多为主，上方短期重点关注43.0-43.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below41.5-41.0一线支撑。行情千变万化，需要获取每日在线实时指导操作策略，可直接添加本人指导交流微信【syc475】本人孙奕臣将尽量为您解决一切问题。


　　看着很容易的事，实际上做起来往往是很不容易的。除了少许的天份之外，大多是靠努力得来的：三分天才，七分努力。是成功不变的法则，一个不愿或不肯努力的人，比起原地踏步，还要糟糕，所以你要好好的去把握一分一秒的时刻。


Wen/孙奕臣
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