Fan Chenjie:7.29黄金牛气冲天空头昙花一现原油区间待破今日操作建议

    投资是个长久之计，不是一朝一夕，所以不可操之过急。就算你现在亏损了，那也没什么可怕的，只要选择正确，失去的都会再回来。聪明人总是结伴而行，把握做单时机，掌握行情动向，方可百战百胜。无论成功还是失败，都让我们明白，人生需要一个好的心态。人生的进退，生活的好坏，有时取决于我们的心态，努力是一种结局，放弃也是一种结局。只是不同的心境，有着不同的结果，你笑天是蓝的，你哭天是阴的。学会投资，需要一个好的心态，走好人生，需要一个好的心境，心态有时决定着你投资的成败。
    Message interpretation:
    gold面，周二(7month28day)The US dollar index rebounded from a two-year low,COMEX12Monthly goldfutures历史上首次触及每盎司2000The sharp fluctuations in the US dollar indicate that the market's long-term expectations for gold prices have been pushed up2000Above the US dollar, there are many factors currently driving the rise of precious metals, including a weak US dollar, intensified geopolitical tensions, and a decline in real interest rates,ETFThe surge in purchase volume, etc. Today, investors should first focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its quantitative easing policy unchanged. According to the latest US financial report season, many companies were hit hard in the second quarter as a result. The Federal Reserve has extended most of its emergency loan plans by three months until the end of the year to help the economy, which is still struggling with the pandemic.
    On the other hand,8The monthly gold contract is about to be delivered, and the final delivery date is7month30Early morning of2Point, previously announced by Zhishang8Gold to be delivered for monthly contracts2600Ten thousand ounces, but the actual warehouse storage is far less than this amount, so we need to be aware that there may be extreme market conditions after contract delivery, where bears may make a big comeback, and bulls may also make a big push to short. Of course, we also need to judge based on specific fundamental news.
    crude oil面，北京时间周三(7month29day)In the early morning, the American Petroleum Institute(API)According to published data, as of7month24Day and WeekAPIReduction in crude oil inventory682.9Ten thousand barrels, expected increase0Ten thousand barrels; Increase in gasoline inventory108.3Ten thousand barrels; Refined oil inventory increase18.7万桶；油价在亚洲盘早盘开盘之后短线走强。周二(7month28day)欧市盘中，美国原油期货震荡微跌，抹去稍早的涨幅，因新冠病毒感染病例持续增加，美国出台更多刺激措施提升了市场对原油需求更强劲复苏的希望。
    另一方面，目前市场对通胀的逻辑很强烈，美元走软对基础金属和贵金属都有支撑，而能源对于推升通胀的影响是见效最快的，在燃油需求下滑的情况下，原油破位之后油价始终维持在41美元的上方说明下跌意愿并不强烈。
    Gold Technology Analysis:
    昨日黄金延续周一早盘的同一个动作强势从1933位置一路拉高到1981，随后的2轮暴跌让市场不知所措，1906位置的探底回升让惊魂未定的散户更加迷糊，大幅下跌73美金后市场是短期见顶转势开始下跌或者说调整还是继续上行？市场最终在美盘给出了答案，1930的关键支撑重新站稳，1946区域的阻力也重新收复，那么现在来看昨日的下跌似乎只能定义为主力洗盘换手的走法了！而这一个洗盘换手洗掉了多少追涨杀跌的散户？主力换手后的利润又已经超过了50美金之多！而昨日进行的急跌，便是对前期连阳大涨的行情进行修正动作。并且价格刚好回撤日线5日均线附近，之后便碎阳上攻，完成了蓄势和调整。那么后面将会再度对1980高点进行发起冲击，如果突破1980将继续延续极强式单边多头，不能突破的话，行情将会进行调整和1-2个月的反复整理走势。
    gold10Trading days200美金的大幅拉高，昨日进行了1980-1906-1964ofV型反转。昨日刚好回撤到日线5日均线位置进行反转。日线收出8连阳，短期多头依旧强势，那么行情将会再次朝着1980发起冲击。重点先关注1980的得失，破位则走牛市单边多头上扬；不破1980则会是1-2个月的整理调整行情。
    from30分钟周期看，1906进行的拉涨，经过1935-1922、1956-1945、1962-1949的三次回调，多头趋势还在延续之中。最临近的两个回调低点形成最主要的支撑区域，在1945-1949。日内回落至该区间内，可进行多单布局，看价格二次冲高至1965-1980。牛市行情不言顶，但短期有回调也很正常。7月即将收官，已经注定是月线长阳。不论价格是突破1980走极强牛市延展，还是短期不破1980先进行1-2个月的整理回调。最终都会向上继续冲击2000、2100甚至于2500，有格局趋势观，再去把握节奏细节，顺应趋势、珍惜机会。综上所述，日内操作上樊辰杰建议回调做多为主，高空为辅。日内关注1948-1949Regional long, stop loss1942Target to see1965-1980。一旦冲破1980，会走极强式牛市多头延展，届时关注加多机会。不破则关注短线多单止盈后的震荡回调动作。
    Technical analysis of crude oil:
    Crude Oil Tuesday41.9Shake down to reach40.8Frontline, closing41One line, unilateral downward fluctuation is small, hourly line40.8Blocked and beginning to rebound, the four hour line has flattened and fluctuated in a range. Oil prices have been continuously fluctuating in a range but have not yet effectively broken through. From the current perspective, oil prices will still be in the short term40-42.5Interval oscillation, pay attention to todayEIACan the data improve in the morningAPIData benefits are abundant,40.8Look for rebound before breaking, operational strategyEIA数据公布前以震荡为主，那么日内短线操作上樊辰杰建议区间不破高抛低吸为主。短线上方关注42.3-42.5One line of resistance, pay attention below40.5-40.0Frontline support.
    关于套牢：
    对于套牢之后的减仓或斩仓，以我的经验来看，投资者在做这样的操作时，下手必须要狠要果断，特别是在下跌趋势中。很多投资的都有这样的操作经历，套牢之后天天盼解套，终于等到有一天解套了，又不甘心了。我都拿了这么多天了，怎么也要赚一些钱。结果错过了最好的平仓机会，当市场重新进入下跌，又再次被套。最终彻底绝望，丧失信心割肉出局。这是下跌趋势中最忌讳的。
    套牢之后，无论如何处理都是被动的操作，解套固然是投资者必须掌握的基本功，但是投资者更应该把精力放在套牢之前，想办法提高分析技巧和买卖水平，尽可能减少被套牢的次数，始终占据资金和心态的主动。
    市场行情难测，平时在操作中会遇到很多套单的朋友来找解套策略，套单基本是现在投资者中最常见的问题，特别是大行情的时候，黄金原油急涨急跌方向难测，提醒广大投资者：做单过程中一定要做好风险控制，带好止盈止损，我们可能会因为判断错误而扫损，但是一旦出现套单，那么紧随其后的就是扛单甚至是割肉，就算解套，我们也不能奢求能够获利解套，最后的损失比当初的扫损反而要多出很多，所以希望大家记住，投资，首先要学会控制风险，其次才是获利。
    writing/Fan Chenjie 指导（fcj66886688）