Zhang Jucheng;7.28黄金续破新高？原油何去何从？

　　美国参议院共和党公布新一轮财政刺激方案美国参议院多数党（共和党）领袖麦康奈尔公布了共和党的新一轮一万亿美元新冠疫情救助计划。参议院共和党领导人希望他们的提议可以作为与民主党就可能通过国会两院的法案进行谈判的起点。该提案将扩大后的联邦失业保障定为工人此前薪资的70%，以取代本周到期的每周600美元的失业补助。
　　
　　美国国家经济顾问库德洛：V型复苏可能会放缓美国国家经济顾问库德洛表示，预计7月份的数据将会是“稳健”的，计划延长了贷款项目，增加了其规模。此前他曾表示预计美国第三和第四季度GDP增速将达20%，经济将出现V型复苏。(See contact information at the end of the article)

　　

internationalgold消息层面解读：
　　
Message analysis: Monday(7month27day)现货黄金盘中触及每盎司1945.72美元的创纪录高位，现货白银一度飙升8%To per ounce24.603USD, for2013year8月以来最高；因美元连续下跌，全球疫情的发展为黄金带来了持续的推动力，除了实际利率走低，地缘政治风险的升温也进一步推动金价；分析师还指出，大量资金流入黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)也是贵金属上涨背后的推动因素。随着金价飙升至历史新高，交易员们正在放弃对黄金的看跌押注。根据IHS Markit Ltd.的数据，规模750Billion dollarSPDRgoldETF（代码GLD）的空头头寸占已发行份额的百分比接近2009year7月以来最低水平。与此同时，该ETF的看涨option成交量上周创下历史次高水平。周一金价涨至1946美元这一历史最高纪录。
　　
　　技术面分析；黄金从日线上来看，日线5The bullish trend continues to rise, and the daily level is already outside the Bollinger Bands. Gold prices continue to rise and continue to rebound with the support of the above trajectory. The Bollinger Bands continue to open upwards, and the moving average below is arranged in a bullish pattern. On the indicator,MACDThe energy of the golden cross and red kinetic energy column increases,KDJMoving upwards again, the overall gold price is still optimistic and upward. Currently, the gold price has reached a new height, with no obvious pressure above, only room for upward movement1921The resistance to the historical high of the US dollar has shifted to support, followed by the upward trend1906Strong support, if there is a pullback in gold prices, it is not recommended to blindly short at a high level. Any pullback may be a good time for investors to buy. Looking at the four hours of gold, after opening low in the morning and continuing to rise, the bullish sentiment has become even stronger, and the price of gold is stepping on itMA10The moving average fluctuates and rises, with a tight upward phase at the tail end. Continuous volume increases to new highs, and short-term non closingMA10Below the moving average, the bullish trend has not changed. In this strong market, do not speculate on the top and keep trading with the trend. The current market would rather bear losses rather than be bearish. The intraday support position is easy for us to judge. BelowMA5/MA10都是目前比较合适做多的位置。今日操作上张钜诚建议回撤做多为主，上方关注1970-1973One line of resistance, pay attention below1920-1925Frontline support.

　　

Beautycrude oil消息层面解读：
　　
Monday(7month27day)European market, US crude oilfuturesto41美元上方转涨，新冠病毒感染病例继续增加及贸易紧张局势持续，推动投资者转向避险资产，油价反弹也鼓励了全球主要产油国再次增加产量和出口，不过美元指数再度刷新逾两年新低，石油需求较第二季的低谷有所改善，均支撑油价，但值得留意的是，需求复苏路径并不平坦，因美国和世界其他地区恢复封锁限制了消费。
　　
　　不过布伦特原油期货价格料录得连续第四个月上涨，美国原油期货价格料连续第三个月上涨，因石油国家组织(OPEC)及其盟友俄罗斯和美国前所未有的减产提振油价。石油需求虽较第二季的低谷有所改善，支撑油价，但需求复苏路径并不平坦，因美国和世界其他地区恢复封锁限制了消费。投资者还在关注飓风汉娜的影响。汉娜上周末袭击了德克萨斯州海岸，有可能在德克萨斯州和墨西哥带来暴雨。石油和天然气生产商和炼油商上周五(7month24day)表示，他们预计风暴不会影响业务。
　　
Analysis of International Crude Oil Prices:
　　
　　原油短期难以下跌，日线级别一直处于上升趋势，空头无力反击，回撤布林带下轨跑步进场多，原油整体是震荡运行，四小时k线运处于上升通道中，低点不断抬高，上升势头保持良好，呈现契行，k线运行于布林带中轨下方，捅破中轨仅仅是时间而已，回撤到下轨是意料之中的事情，这也是多头进场的绝佳机会。
　　
　　一小时k线形态底部出现吞没形态，多头强势上扬，借助布林带下轨强势击穿布林带中轨，直捣布林带上轨，布林带中轨显示值41.3附近，这也是短期的阻力，macd运行于零轴上方，呈现红色能量，金叉向上运行，多头依然坚挺原油目前来回震荡，蓄势后在发力上扬，震荡洗盘是必然，所以今日操作上张钜诚建议回撤做多为主，高空为辅。短线上方关注43First line pressure, following below40.5-40.0Frontline support.  本文由张钜诚供稿，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，技术总监张钜诚在线解套，亏损回本，一对一实时指导微信：zjc8393  Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.