Fan Chenjie:7.25黄金逼近历史新高空还是多？原油高抛低吸下周操作建议

   投资是一门复杂的学问，是技巧、技能、心态、人性等的综合博弈过程。在这一过程中，谁的风险意识强，谁的风险管理做的好，谁的风险控制措施执行到位谁就是最后的赢家。从而真正将“投资有风险，入市须谨慎”落到实处。投资的过程是一个逐渐成长的过程，对风险认知的加深是一个投资人不断成熟的标志。而当一个投资人对风险有了正确的认知，又能以正确的心态去执行，很好的去规避风险，就是一个成功的投资人。


   Message interpretation:


   gold面，周五(7month24day)美元指数连续第五周下跌，续刷2018year9月以来低点至94.32，避险买盘推动日元升至3月以来最高水平。现货黄金创2011year9New high since the beginning of the month1906.56dollar/盎司；地缘政治紧张局势加剧及人们对全球经济增长的担忧助推黄金上涨，此外，实际利率较低、美元走弱以及通胀预期上升等因素也共同支撑了金价。受疫情蔓延打击美国经济复苏前景的影响，机构开始逃离股市并逐步涌入金市。近期国际担忧情绪升温，或削弱美国刺激措施对于股市的支撑作用，股市短期存见顶风险，推动避险资金流入黄金。鉴于通胀预期将上升，对长期投资者来说，黄金应该是一种大型的分散投资工具。总体而言，金价上涨动力十足，并且基本面仍是看涨，金价距离历史高点仅20美元，创下新高只是时间问题。


   crude oil面，受到一些利好经济数据的提振，美油周五小幅上涨，盘中在平盘上下波动，本周累计涨幅为1.7%；美元跌至近二年以来最低提振了以美元计价大宗商品的吸引力；与此同时，库存增加和冠状病毒疫情升温而导致需求放缓的担忧也增加。调查显示，欧元区企业活动7月恢复增长，因经济中有更多曾封锁的部分重新开放，消费者也走出家门回到工作岗位或消费。该消息提振了市场人气。樊辰杰认为“欧洲的经济数据远好于预期，这将表明近几个月来疫情造成的需求破坏可能没有人们想象的那么糟糕。”周五公布的其他数据显示，美国7月企业活动升至六个月高位，因全国新增冠状病毒病例再次激增，令需求承压。巴克莱商品研究表示，如果燃料需求进一步放缓，尤其是美国，则油价近期可能出现修正。ConfluenceInvestmentManagement执行副总裁BillO’Grady指出，市场受到两种强劲而相反的作用力推动：一方面，库存压力持续存在，另一方面，美元疲软，实际利率为负，这些因素通常对大宗商品有利，特别是原油。


   黄金技术分析及下周策略：


   黄金连续上涨，已突破1900大关，离人类历史新高1920仅一步之遥；目前行情依然是多头走势，历史新高1920肯定是要破的，但短期能不能破不好说，最近的行情大周期一直沿着趋势线运行，日线上周五1795企稳向上，本周多头发力，涨了100个美金。下周来看，沿着小时图趋势线向上，多头强势；并且始终没有跌破顶底换换支撑！所以，不要觉得价格高了就可以做空，也不要觉得价格低了就可以做多；只要多头行情没有改变，价格高了可以更高，只要空头行情没有改变，价格低了可以更低。


   对于黄金下周的走势，周五黄金晚间冲破1900关口，依然是多头趋势没有改变，依托低点1880干多！重点关注1913的破位情况，如果突破，黄金将继续维持当前的走势上行，但是如果还是承压回落，那么可能要进行一波调整后才能继续！所以下周1913还是非常重要的，决定了我们后市的操作思路是高抛低吸还是低多！对于当前的行情来说，樊辰杰认为我们还是继续维持低多不变，下周依然继续做多，依托1880一线继续进场多即可，最低回落不能破位1873位置，否则在1小时级别上就会构建双头走势！在趋势没有转变前，下周操作上樊辰杰建议继续做多为主！如果行情突破1913整数关口，则上看至1920的历史高位甚至更高！综合来看，操作上建议上方阻力关注1913-1922First line, support attention from below1885-1880frontline.


   原油技术分析及下周策略：


   原油日线收盘阴线中阴线，高价没破前，低价破新低，出现了落尾走势，油价在二连阳后出现下跌，表现了多头不够坚决，三步一回头，布林带向右走平，没有出现明显的拐头迹象，多空指标上，多头线出现萎靡迹象，但是没有形成死叉，表现了油价高位震荡。如图所示，原油在6month15Daily contact35.0After the US dollar, oil prices received support and experienced a volatile upward trend, with an overall small magnitude7month21Setting a new high every day42.48After the US dollar, it further affected the continuation of the upward trend line. If we maintain the support of the downward trend line during today's pullback, there is a high probability that there will be signs of continuation. I will pay attention to the upward pressure level41.32The resistance of the US dollar fluctuation platform will be tested after further breakdowns41.7Horizontal resistance, first focus on supporting the downward trend of oil prices40.5-40.0Position range support, further breaking will change the pattern of oil price fluctuations and rise, testing the early support39.0-39.2水平支撑。综合来看樊辰杰认为，在油价上涨趋势线没有下破的前提下，油价下周望出现上涨概率，所以下周操作上樊辰杰建议考虑回撤布局多单为主，短线上方关注41.3-41.7USD, follow below40.5-40.0USD support.


   黄金原油投资被套，如何快速解套？


   （1）Lock in position and price difference method: After being covered, it indicates that our judgment direction is wrong. The market and our prices in the opposite direction are moving, and when they rebound or fall to a certain height, it is estimated that they will reach a short-term high. We need to continuously increase the funds in the lock in position to ensure that the lock in position is greater than the position in the lock in position. By using this technique of taking advantage of the situation to increase the price difference earned by locking orders, and finally waiting for the total funds to make up for the loss, completing the removal of the bedding and making a profit, and then selling all of it?


   （2）Bottom adding method: After being covered, one should be patient and dare to lock in the position, because of the characteristics of the product, some prices and bottom signals may appear, especially in large cycles such as the weekly chartKWhen there is a rebound signal or a bottom signal on the line, it will be very stable. As long as there is a bottom signal in the large cycle, it is necessary to boldly unwind, buy continuously on dips, increase positions, and once the large cycle rebounds, it can be resolved.


   （3）Lowering the average price method: After being trapped, if you are trapped at a relatively low point in history, there is no need to worry, as there is bound to be room for rebound. At this time, you need to constantly buy on dips and increase positions to buy on dips15%的空间加仓一次，降低平均的价格，这样等黄金原油产生一波反弹，就可解出局。这种技巧也有人称它为金字塔法。


   （4）Single stop loss method: When you feel that your direction and trend are wrong and there are really no opportunities left, choose a certain rebound space for single stop loss. The gold market is very large on one side, especially when the opposite direction of high or low orders is trapped, you need to make a decisive single stop loss. Single stop loss is the most effective solution technique, because you can redo the order and ensure the principal.


   市场行情难测，平时在操作中会遇到很多套单的朋友来找解套策略，套单基本是现在投资者中最常见的问题，特别是大行情的时候，黄金原油急涨急跌方向难测，提醒广大投资者：做单过程中一定要做好风险控制，带好止盈止损，我们可能会因为判断错误而扫损，但是一旦出现套单，那么紧随其后的就是扛单甚至是割肉，就算解套，我们也不能奢求能够获利解套，最后的损失比当初的扫损反而要多出很多，所以希望大家记住，投资，首先要学会控制风险，其次才是获利。

   writing/Fan Chenjie