郭禹缘：7.24收官之战谨防黑天鹅，黄金原油晚间走势分析指南 。

前言：每天行情波折不断，我所能做的就是用我多年的经验，带领各位投朋友走向市场前端，给你想要的帮助。合理规划资金进行投资，做到手中有粮、心中不慌，不带情绪化做单，切勿被利益冲昏头脑，盲目下单。顺势而为，取财有道，请永远不要和趋势作对。服务从未改变，责任常在心中指导全方位的分析，盯单，守盘服务；郭禹缘的合作客户可以轻松的进行交投，这是我们服务的尊旨；要想和客户的关系像朋友一样融洽，在合作的过程中就力求做到互惠互利，只有客户在我们这边技术上得到提高，仓位上得到改善，我们负责耐心的做到授之以渔，这样才能达到合作共赢的局面。

goldMessage analysis: Friday（7month24日），美元指数持续走软，连续第六个交易日走低，盘中最低续刷近两年低点。预计即使美联储在下周利率决议维持不变，美元仍可能进一步疲软。受疫情蔓延打击美国经济复苏前景的影响，机构开始逃离股市并逐步涌入金市。近期国际担忧情绪升温，或削弱美国刺激措施对于股市的支撑作用，股市短期存见顶风险，推动避险资金流入黄金。鉴于通胀预期将上升，对长期投资者来说，黄金应该是一种大型的分散投资工具。总体而言，金价上涨动力十足，并且基本面仍是看涨，金价距离历史高点仅20美元，创下新高只是时间问题。

国际黄金技术分析：黄金从日线上来看，昨日延续上涨逼近千九关口，日图依旧大阳收线，目前连续5On the first trading day, the price of gold broke through the upper track, and the Bollinger Belt opened up on the three tracks, with a short-term moving average of long positions,MACDThe energy of the golden fork and red pillar increases, and the price of gold is still on the rise. However, it is worth noting that,KDJHigh index close to90，需要警惕短线或因金价超买而高位回调的风险，另外今天周五，小心主力多头获利了结，整体来说，黄金依旧要维持看涨的思路。

从四小时来看，金价贴着10单位均线尾部放量上涨，连续上涨之后节奏开始变缓，短期均线就是短线强弱临界点，指标上来看，MACDStill golden forks, but the energy of the red pillar weakens,KDJHigh dead cross operation implies a risk of a pullback in gold prices, please follow belowMA10average1880支撑，守住10均线继续看涨，跌破则会转为震荡回落，上方则关注布林带上轨1907Resistance, if broken upwards, may be tested upwards1921，整体来看，黄金短期有回调风险，但长期仍以看涨为主。综合来看，黄金今日短线操作思路上郭禹缘个人建议以回调做多为主，上方短期重点关注1902-1907Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1880-1875Frontline support.

crude oilMessage analysis: Friday（7month24日）美原油窄幅震荡，现报41.06USD, increase0.22%。周四因为因疫情持续蔓延，且美国上周初请失业金人数增加，分析师准备下调能源需求预测，这使得美原油下跌2%。同时数据显示美国商业原油库存继续攀升，且美原油产量出现小幅复苏的迹象，在需求仍显示出疲软迹象之际，可能会导致库存进一步上升。此外由于成品油需求不足，近期炼厂运行率有所下滑，也对原油需求构成损害。同时还需要关注国际紧张关系，这也对原油需求构成影响。

不过分析人士认为，美原油已经连续5周围绕着40美元上下2美元的区间波动，说明近期总体油市处于平衡的状态，市场需要关注疫情和经济复苏前景、8monthOPEC的减产情况、亚洲原油需求，这将推动油市进行方向选择。日内关注各国制造业PMI，由于制造业是制造业复苏是经济复苏的前兆，市场将从中进一步寻找有关疫情对于经济影响的线索。同时关注热带风暴对于美国原油生产的影响。

Technical analysis of US crude oil: 原油从日线上来看，昨日承压回落收低，最高触及42.30一带承压，尾盘整理后跌破前一日低点，且收在低位，日图收盘小阴KLine,K线实体依旧不大，重新回归区间震荡，同时布林道依旧紧紧收口，今日周线收官，继续看震荡收尾，暂时走不出单边。

原油从四小时来看，昨日试探前高位42.30后回落，有形成M顶风险，目前短期均线初步形成死叉，MACD死叉，绿能持续放量，KDJ于超买区域拐头死叉下行，暗示空头占优，下方关注布林带下轨及隔夜低点40.8支撑，若进一步下破则增加看空信号，上方关注近期高点42.5附近阻力，不过按照近期的走法，空间延续性有限，仍然区间震荡为主。综合来看，原油今日短线操作短线思路上郭禹缘个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注42.0-42.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below40.5-40.0Frontline support.

禹缘赠言：这个市场没有常胜将军，更没有神这一说，分析师都有出错的时候，那么关键问题来了，笔者郭禹缘个人坚持一个仓位和节奏要求VIPJinyou Trading does not involve heavy positions, and no matter how many times it is done correctly, there is no need to discuss whether risk control is good or not. Therefore, when there is an error in an order, the trend and expectations are not consistent. It is important to cut the position as soon as possible instead of waiting for a stop loss foolishly. What needs to be done is the win rate, relying on profit accumulation to earn wealth, rather than heavy position trading. If there is an error in a loss, it is necessary to repeatedly increase the position. I do not have such guidance here, nor do I agree with it. Investment trading always puts technical risk control first, mentality and technology second, only then can profits continue.

本文由郭禹缘（官方指导热线：gyy7819）As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publication, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source of the reprint.