MBG Markets:隔夜欧元突破1.14，内容关注两大央行利率决议

Quantitative trading strategy

MBG动量反转量化策略继续在2020年货币市场展现出稳固并明显的每周动量反转效应，并再次来到历史新高附近，投资者在下半年可继续参考我们的每周建议组合。
MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.23%。本周组合及截至北京时间7month15day06:30The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

Focus of foreign exchange market

避险货币方面，隔夜美元指数继续走软，一方面因美国6monthCPI通胀的回升，另一方面因市场预计欧盟就一揽子救助计划将达成一致，欧元的走强施压美元。日元方面，今日，日本央行将在11:00公布利率决议，目前市场预计日央行将保持货币政策不变，与此同时，预计日本央行将在前景展望报告中下调经济增速预期，但这不会令市场感到意外，因此，料不会对日元走势产生太大影响。

欧元区方面，隔夜欧元大涨，主要是因市场对欧洲央行会议和欧盟峰会之前的欧元前景保持乐观。明日欧洲央行将公布利率决议，目前市场预期欧洲央行将维稳政策不变，暂不增加宽松力度，欧元是有望也因此而获得提振。不过，从德国总理默克尔的讲话来看，似乎对本周达成协议感到悲观；如果欧盟领导人在峰会上一致同意欧盟复苏基金，欧/美有望上行突破1.1450，否则有转而下跌的风险。

商品货币方面，隔夜澳元大涨，我们认为主要是因中国进出口数据整体向好，提振了商品货币。今晚22:00，加拿大央行将公布利率决议。目前市场预计加拿大央行将保持利率在当前水平不变，而资产购买计划也将不会出现任何变化，或重申继续大规模购买资产直至经济复苏步入正轨。技术上，调整基本已经结束，时间上有利于多方。

commodity market

Trading preference –  今日维持crude oil（WTI）、gold（XAU）均为高位震荡结构。
黄金方面，隔夜金价走高，主要是因国际地缘政治关系紧张以及美国的冠状病毒病例数继续激增，令金价得到支撑。不过考虑到金价已攀升至2011年以来的最高水平，出现了获利回吐，使其价格承压。因此，继续维持黄金为高位震荡结构。

油价方面，隔夜油价周上涨，主要是因欧佩克上调2020年全球原油需求增速预期，以及OPEC+成员国如期履行减产额度。今日，APIReduction in crude oil inventory832.2万桶，超过市场预期的减少227.5万桶；考虑到APIandEIA走同向的可能性较大，因此，预计今晚的EIA库存数据将继续支持油价。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，港股周二低开低走，反复下挫，盘中曾跌逾500点。收盘恒指全日跌1.14%。考虑到市场担忧香港疫情状况，以及美股走势分化。港股或将继续面临压力。技术上看，关注25000Support.

abstract

CFTC资金流数据显示，美元、加元空头仍处于极值，因此，我们认为短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨，另外，欧元、澳元多头也处于极值。

Australia/美、纽/美调整基本已经结束。

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.The above content is general information and does not take into account your investment objectives, financial condition, or other needs; It does not constitute any invitation to invest or buy or sell financial products. Before you make an investment decision,MBG MarketsWe suggest that you seek independent financial advice. Meanwhile,MBG MarketsWe shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses arising from the use of this review/Liability or obligation resulting from or damage.You are making a decision to selectMBG MarketsPlease read carefully before providing the financial productsMBG MarketsAnd confirm full understanding of the transaction in accordance with the terms and conditions and product disclosure statementMBG MarketsRisks related to financial products.