Zhou Hongjin:6.20黄金延续涨势，原油冲高遇阻-下周黄金原油走势预判操作策略

Summary:goldTrend analysis, gold trading strategy, gold market analysiscrude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　
　　常常有投资朋友向鸿金调侃：“一直不明白，为什么我一个小小的散户就可以彻底左右整个foreign exchange市场，每当我一买多时，市场就下跌，一卖空它就涨回来。反手时，左右挨耳光，顺势时，横盘装孙子，逆势时，急拉打止损，如此反复……为什么手握百亿资金的庄家们，几年来，就派人盯住我这几万块钱不放？这到底是为什么？”幽默背后实则满是辛酸——长此以往，交易者很容易陷入自我怀疑中，甚至对做单产生畏惧心理。在投资的路上一个人的力量是很有限的，一只老虎看见一群狼也只能远远的躲开，所以当你投资不顺利，屡次受到挫折的时候，你可能需要一个分析团队为你出谋划策！
　　
　　市场回顾与展望：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，市场焦点转向卫生事件二次爆发方面，新增感染病例激增令投资者忧心忡忡，股市的超级涨势遭到打击，促使投资者买入美元以避险，黄金也是一度爆发冲破1740关口。在全球抗疫封锁措施放松一段时间后，美国许多州的新增感染病例上升，加上北京发现新的本土感染病例，本周对卫生事件爆发2.0的担忧不断加剧，投资者对全球经济从卫生事件大流行中迅速复苏的信心遭到打击。除了卫生事件二次爆发的担忧，本周经济数据表现喜忧参半，美国5月零售销售在连续两个月下滑后录得创纪录增幅，但美国初请失业金人数及续请失业金人数依旧处于高位，暗示就业市场复苏之路还很漫长。此外，地缘政治风险集中大爆发，中印、朝韩以及中美局势均传出重大消息，这也令投资者保持谨慎，不敢大举加仓。
　　
　　自周初以来现货金一直维持窄幅震荡格局，尽管盘中出现较大波动，但日涨跌幅都不超过10美元，而这一局面在周五被打破，金价周五终于实现大爆发，一举攻破1740Pass, highest touch1745美元，为连续第二周收涨。原油价格基本延续此前震荡反弹的势头，OPEC+深化减产前景提振油价，但卫生事件担忧又拖累价格。最终本周美国原油上涨8.7%，布伦特原油上涨9%。
　　
　　接下来的一周，各国将公布PMI数据，这对于判断全球经济是否进一步复苏具有参考意义。同时周四美国将公布一系列一季度数据的终值以及耐用品订单数据，周五还将公布PCE数据。同时新西兰联储周三公布利率决议，预计会扩大购债规模且可能会暗示和负利率有关的信息。而加拿大央行新任行长将在周一进行上任后第二次讲话，预计会透露更多和7月决议有关的消息。值得一提的是，周一纽约原油7月合约进行移仓换月，市场需警惕市场波动风险。
　　
1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold
　　
Technically speaking, due to concerns in the market about the development of global health events, gold's safe haven demand has been boosted, and the price of gold hit a weekly high on Friday, rising more than20USD, highest hit1745.26dollar/Ounces, final closing1743.87dollar/Ounces, the daily chart recorded a full bullish candlestick,MACDThe random indicator is moderately flat, with the red kinetic energy column appearing faintly,KDJ金叉，金价一度刷新周高点1745.26Post oscillation operation1740Above, but still unable to break the previous triangular convergence pattern, indicating relatively limited action potential. In the short term, there is still a need to be vigilant against the risk of a volatile pullback,5Daily moving average1729.09This is the initial support below, and further support is needed20Daily moving average1720.97Nearby, if it breaks below this position, it weakens the short-term bullish signal;6month17Daily low point support at1713.2Nearby,3month9The daily high is supported by1703.39Nearby, if the position is accidentally lost, the gold price may further test the offline track of the Bollinger Line1694.55附近支撑；不过，鸿金认为，黄金以积极的姿态结束了本周交易，因为卫生事件病例增长，加速了避险资金流入黄金市场的趋势。总体而言，全球抗疫局势依旧严峻，在疫苗出现之前，任何好转的消息对于金价的打压有限，如果避险情绪成为主导的市场主题，则预计黄金将在未来几周内还将大涨；若金价坚守20If there is support near the daily moving average, there is still a possibility of further upward movement in the future, with preliminary resistance above as a reference1750Integral level, track resistance on the Bollinger Line1755.85附近，鸿金认为金价需要突破该位置才可能进一步冲击前期高点1765.43And open up new upward space;
　　
　　综合来看，鸿金认为，尽管金价迟迟未能突破1750At the critical point, but it is expected that after a period of stability, the gold price will still rise. The gold price has not yet broken through1750dollar/盎司的阻力水平，但整个黄金市场仍然在多年高位附近的震荡区域里。从过去几年金价走势来看，黄金市场在为突破做准备。最终而言，黄金多头面对的关键问题在于通胀如何表示。为应对卫生事件，全球各国央行和政府都大举宽松，进行各种刺激项目。此外经贸问题影响下，全球化也面临挑战，这意味着通胀变得更重要。在这种情况下，在实际利率依然极为低迷的背景下，黄金有足够支撑，金价长线仍需看涨；但短线技术面来看，金价仍处于三角收敛形态，所以下周一操作思路上周鸿金zh66646My personal suggestion is to sell high and sell low;
　　
Focus on resistance above:1750.00、1754.85；
　　
Focus on support below:1729.09；1720.97；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
2、 Analysis of the trend of US crude oil
　　
　　技术面来看，因欧佩克及其盟友加大减产力度提振了市场的乐观情绪，油价周五盘中一度刷新周高点，触及40.6dollar/Bucket, final closing39.5dollar/The barrel, the daily line recorded a bullish line similar to the "Shooting Star", and the Bollinger Line's orbit began to close,MACDDead cross but weak kinetic energy,KDJForming a golden cross again, the upward trend of oil prices is still affected3month6Daily low point41.05附近压制，周五盘中，油价在刷新逾一周高点40.6dollar/Back of the bucket falling close2The US dollar, indicating that action can still be limited; The risk of secondary spread of health incidents still limits the increase in oil prices, while some nonOPEC产油国开始放松减产的力度，总体而言油价仍在测试此前跳空缺口所在的位置，油价需要突破并企稳41.05Only above can a new upward space be opened. If oil prices are under pressure again at this position, we still need to be vigilant about the possibility of a peak correction in oil prices,5Daily moving average38.30This is the initial support below, and if it breaks below this level, it weakens the short-term bullish signal;20The daily moving average is supported by36.72附近，若下破该位置，则增加短线看空信号；不过，由于原油价格目前正迅速接近至少一些主要产油国的舒适水平，且伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦计划进一步减产以弥补5The incomplete adherence to the practice of reducing production during the month has supported the oil market; The middle track of the Bollinger Line also provides good support for oil prices. If this position is not lost, the bullish outlook on the middle line will remain unchanged; Next week, let's first follow40.6Nearby resistance, if breaking through, look up3month6Daily low point41.05Nearby resistance, located on the upper edge of the gap with a low opening in the sky, and close to the Bollinger Line track. Once broken, it will greatly boost the bullish sentiment in the market, further increasing resistance levels3month2Daily low point43.32；
　　
　　综合来看，鸿金认为，随着各国放松封锁措施，世界各地的需求已开始逐渐上升。但市场也在担忧需求和供应，油价此前上涨过快，而全球石油需求可能不会在2021年底之前就回到疫情前的水平。供应问题或许会卷土重来，随着价格上涨，美国页岩油将重启生产；此外，当欧佩克和盟国开始减少减产幅度时，石油产量将急剧增加；油价短线仍然面临一定的回调风险，所以下周短线操作思路上周鸿金zh66646My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude; The central line focuses on the daily line, the Bollinger Line, and the middle rail35.65Nearby support, this position is not lost, and it is still possible to consider laying out multiple single lines on the centerline;
　　
Focus on resistance above:40.60、41.05；
　　
Focus on support below:38.30、36.72；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
　　三、体验福利：凡是有意向咨询合作的投资朋友，便于后期合作互相信任，可凭实仓截图体验3Tian Shou Dan, you can choose whether to cooperate based on your earnings in the future! I believe this welfare is a good turning point opportunity for friends who have suffered long-term losses in the market and investors who have lost confidence. Whether you seize the opportunity depends on your choice.
　　
　　四、关于解ㄒ：因为周鸿金不知你的ㄒ单点位、仓位风险等具体ㄒ单情况，不能给出相应的解ㄒ策略。那么有需要的朋友可以咨询周鸿金或者关注“周鸿金”在此本人还是建议各位投资朋友以后做单不要抗单，仓位不要过重，避免下次再ㄒ，不是每次都是可以成功解ㄒ，不是每次都顺心如意，每一次的做单是应该有计划的做单，详情解ㄒ思路周鸿金将会在实盘实时在线给出，风险掌控及后续方案将会做出规划。
　　
Financial investment is a serious job, do not pursue windfall profits, because windfall profits are unstable, what we pursue is stable trading. The essence of trading is not to consider how to make money, but to effectively control risks and manage them well,利润自然而来，交易不是勤劳致富，而是风险管理致富！没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作！解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资趋势，对黄金、原油投资有兴趣却无从下手或者已经在接触却并不理想的朋友，订阅“周鸿金”zh66646你给我一份信任，我还你十分财富。下半年中长线布局开始，大好机遇就在眼前，机会是留给有准备的人，周鸿金期待与你成为朋友！
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