6.15黄金原油周一行情走势分析精准预测及开盘操作策布局附解套

　当你看到这篇文章时，我已经明白你目前遇到困境，那么首先王铭鑫想表明一点，你们能够在千万篇分析贴中看到我的文章这是一种缘分，既然是一种缘分，那么我希望能够保持下去，找到我并且与我交流，那么你目前遇到的困境或许是王铭鑫入行以来见到过到许许多多例子当中的其中一个而已，所以你可以把所遇到的问题都拿出来与我交流，既能够让自己能够在我这边多学习一点知识，也能够多明白一点道理，甚至能够在这个变化莫测的市场中持续存活并持续获利。当然你目前持续在亏损，那么你便要在心里在反问自己的问题出现在哪里，还是说我缺少一个和自己有默契的老师？那么我想只要你认真的看了王铭鑫的分析，你必定会有收获！

　　

　　市场回顾与展望：

　　

　　刚刚过去的一周，全球金融市场“冰火两重天”：上半周，在全球开始放松卫生事件封锁措施、经济活动重启，以及美国最新的非农就业报告惊艳市场之后，投资者风险偏好高涨，美元则遭遇持续抛售；到了周三美联储决议公布了经济前景的黯淡预期，以及"warning"复苏的风险，再加上市场对于美国第二波卫生事件的担忧，市场走势风云突变，美股暴跌，道指狂泄1800点，美元迎来避险资金的涌入。周五美股有所反弹，扳回周四的部分跌幅。  王铭鑫认为，虽然美联储悲观基调和卫生事件担忧充当了触发因素，但市场走势反转也跟前期市场的严重泡沫化不无关系。这就是市场从超买状态的一次修正。

　　

　　尽管经济逐渐放开的希望提振市场风险偏好，一度令美股反弹、美元与美债收益率走高，令金价承压，但对疫情二次爆发的担忧仍令本周金价收涨。与此同时，美联储本周暗示疫情或对经济造成永久伤害，同时承诺将继续购买资产，强化了市场对于美联储持续宽松的预期，因此美元跌至3个月新低，推动gold刷新逾一周高点。油价终结连续六周的上涨步伐，在美联储警告卫生事件对经济造成长期损害之后，市场情绪恶化，而对第二波卫生事件的担忧有可能破坏需求恢复。尽管在OPEC+减产的支持下，油价已从4月创纪录的零下水平回升，但市场基本上没有理会该联盟最近延长减产的举措。

　　

　　接下来的一周，市场将关注美联储主席鲍威尔周二和周三在国会的半年度证词，他可能在证词中重申美联储本周的鸽派立场。其他重要的宏观数据将是5月份的美国零售销售和工业生产数据，这两份报告都定于周二发布。下周将出炉的其他数据和事件包括下周一的纽约联储6月制造业指数，周二的日本央行利率决定，周三的美国营建许可和房屋开工，周四的英国央行利率决定、美国的初请失业金人数以及费城联储6月制造业指数。

　　

1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold

　　

　　技术面来看，金价小幅上涨，现货黄金收涨0.18%to1730.75dollar/盎司，本周涨约2.7%；美股反弹、美元与美债收益率走高，令金价承压，但对卫生事件二次爆发的担忧仍令本周金价录得涨幅。日线均线交织，MACD有结成金叉的迹象，KDJGolden fork,K线在相对高位录得一根“射击之星”，指示后市走势存在较大变数，短线需要警惕金价筑顶回调的风险，下方初步支撑布林线中轨1721.34附近，该位置同时靠近5Daily moving average and20日均线，若失守，则削弱短线看涨信号，10The daily moving average is supported by1717.7附近，若下破该位置，则增加短线见顶信号，进一步支撑在1700整数关口，若进一步失守，则金价将进一步试探布林线下轨1687.74附近支撑力度；不过，由于布林线中轨目前为金价提供良好支撑，若金价坚守该位置，则后市仍有进一步走高的可能，上方初步阻力在周四高点1744.73附近，若突破该位置，则金价将进一步试探布林线上轨1754.95附近阻力，并可能对七年半的高位1765.43一线再次发起冲击；综合来看，金价短线走势存在一定变数，需要警惕筑顶回调的可能，重点关注布林线中轨1721.34位置得失，但在失守该位置前，金价仍然偏向震荡上涨，所以下周一短线操作思路上王铭鑫个人建议低多为主，高空为辅；

　　

Focus on resistance above:1744.73、1754.95；

　　

Focus on support below:1721.34、1717.70；

　　

　　行情实时变化，策略仅供参考，实时进出场点位及中长线布局咨询王铭鑫获取！

　　

　　二、美crude oilTrend analysis

　　

　　技术面来看，在美联储警告卫生事件对经济造成长期损害之后，市场情绪恶化；此外，对第二波卫生事件的担忧也可能破坏需求恢复。油价终结连续六周的上涨步伐，美原油本周跌逾6%Report collection36.56dollar/桶；日线MCDPreliminary dead fork,KDJ死叉，油价上行受到5Daily moving average and10Daily moving average*，短线存在进一步走低的风险，下方初步支撑在100Daily moving average34.22附近，该位置同时靠近周五低点，若下破该位置，则短线看空信号将进一步增强，进一步支撑在布林线中轨33.43附近，一旦失守，油价将再次回踩5month22Daily low point30.72附近支撑并大幅增加市场看空情绪；不过王铭鑫认为市场已经消化了最快的需求的改善和最大的供应下降，且美国钻井公司连续第六周将石油和天然气钻井平台削减至历史最低水平，若油价坚守布林线中轨支撑，则仍然需要警惕油价震荡反弹的可能；上方初步阻力在5Daily moving average37.68附近，进一步阻力在周高点40.44附近，若突破该位置，则油价将进一步试探3month6Daily low point41.05附近阻力，该位置位于前期跳空低开的缺口上沿，一旦回补完缺口，将大幅提振市场看多情绪，新的上行空间也将打开；综合来看，下周一短线操作思路上鹅个人建议以高空为主，低多为辅；中线关注布林线中轨33.43一线得失，该位置不失，可考虑布局中线多单；

　　

Focus on resistance above:37.68、40.44；

　　

Focus on support below:34.22、33.43；

　　

　　行情实时变化，策略仅供参考，实时进出场点位及中长线布局咨询王铭鑫获取！

　　

GoldKLine theory:

　　

The theory of relative position is goldKThe second largest theory of line theory. As the saying goes, oranges born in the south are called oranges, which are sweet and sweet;Born in the north, it is bitter and astringent, known as trifoliate orange. The same seeds, grown in different environments, have vastly different results. Same, exactly the sameKLines, if placed in different relative positions, have a completely different guiding effect on the future market.KThe position of the line is crucial for analysis and judgmentKLines are extremely important. goldKThe theory of relative position of lines includes the following two meanings:

　　

UsuallyKThe position of a line does not have an absolute high or low point, so we can only use relative position to represent it. This depends on an individual's judgment of the market height and requires a certain level of understanding, but we must make a simple distinction. It is generally divided into three positions: relatively high, relatively low, and halfway up the mountain. Because high and low points are not absolute, there is no need to overly demand accurate positioning, just give a rough distinction.

　　

It is generally divided into three types: upward trend, downward trend, and consolidation trend, also known as upward channel, downward channel, and horizontal consolidation. At a relatively high levelKSpecial attention should be paid to analyzing whether the main force needs to wash the market or if there is a change in the overall situation, and the main force needs to ship at a high level. Generally speaking, the main force washing the market will fluctuate sharply downwards, making it easy for people to be deceived;However, if the main force wants to ship at a high level, it will be very gentle, giving people a feeling of needing to adjust at a high level and continue to hit higher peaks. By observing and calculating the inflow and outflow of the main force's funds, it can be found. Nine out of ten retail investors compensate for this reason, always being deceived by technical data and confused by the main force. Relatively lowKGenerally, the line falls to a certain extent, so there will be a relatively low level, but whether the incoming buying is awesome depends on the subsequent trend. Low position long and short positions are usually fought back and forth, whenKThe smaller the amplitude of the line, the more reasonable the price range has been organized. At this time, the normal trading volume will be relatively low. If there is a continuous upward or downward long lead or cross star, and the trading volume starts to rise, it indicates that the market is about to change. At this moment, it is necessary to constantly pay attention. If the main funds are continuously entering but the price fluctuates little, then buy decisively, When the main force builds up their positions, they will give up suppressing prices and turn to aggressively entering the market to start pulling up, usually starting with a bullish candlestick. A sharp rise in prices is relatively important, but it should be combined withKBased on a comprehensive assessment of the line and trading volume, whether the price does not rise or fall is not necessarily a bad thing, but rather the preparation for the next surge.

　　

Fund management is one of the core contents of trading systems, and its essence is risk management. The core logic of financial markets is that potential returns are equal to risks. Pursuing higher profit goals will inevitably face greater risks. Trading is valuable in the long run, and trading operations should pursue a balance between attack and defense. All positions and significant losses are the result of heavy attacks and light defenses. Fund management mainly involves building positions, stopping losses and profits, increasing positions and reducing positions, and so on. Here is only a brief explanation of warehouse construction. Assuming you use a1000Using USD accounts for international gold trading（XAUUSD）Margin trading, current market price is1390USD, you are considering setting the stop loss at a new high and then moving back to the previous low1381Below the US dollar1380On the position of the US dollar, the target price is considered to reach a new high1440Below the US dollar, per transaction2%Loss rule (usually recommended for classic trading)1-2%(Small funds can be adjusted accordingly), what is the amount of loss you can bear20USD（1000USD x0.02）In this way, you can only pay the market price1390Establishment of US dollars0.02Buying multiple positions by hand（20÷10）The profit and loss ratio is approximately5:1. If you use1385Set a price limit for buying orders in US dollars, and positions can be set0.04Hand（20÷5）Profit loss ratio1：10Left and right. Of course, you can also adopt the fixed position method, using a secure fixed position for each order placed over a period of time.

　　

　　本文由黄金分析师王铭鑫独家策划，感谢广大读者对笔者文章的喜爱和支持，希望大家能从我的文章中有所收获和感悟！因文章撰写和上传具有延时性，仅供参考！王铭鑫薇/Letter（  ymsd06）For gold/Investors who feel that investing in crude oil is not going smoothly or want to learn how to read and analyze the market can contact me