单晨金：黄金暴跌仍未摆脱震荡格局！大非农多头动能否复苏？

SpotgoldWednesday(6month3day)跌幅一度超过40美元，美市盘中最低触及1688.89dollar/盎司，重启经济的乐观情绪继续升温令市场避险需求大受抑制，而技术面顶背离现象进一步得到确认，这令投资者情绪遭受冲击。美国ADP就业数据大幅好于预期，随着许多州开始分阶段恢复营业，失业人数可能已在4月份达到峰值。而黄金产业基本面正在转变，供需两端均存在利空。近期黄金市场的一个大转变就是实物黄金供应开始大幅增加。黄金市场在实物需求方面继续受到疫情的极大影响，印度5月黄金进口量大跌。另一方面，黄金近期避险需求大降，投资者纷纷涌向风险资产，全球股市再度纷纷走高，但黄金仍未摆脱震荡格局。

　　黄金为何暴跌：小非农数据与风险事件双管齐下，黄金下破千七关口
　　
　　最新经济数据显示，美国5monthADPDecreased employment population276万，远远低于市场预期的900Ten thousand, the previous value was corrected to decrease1955.7万。对于这份ADP报告，这一数字远低于道琼斯调查经济学家估计的875万。造成这种巨大差异的原因尚不清楚。但白宫经济顾问委员会主席哈塞特表示，美国经济接近触底。ADP就业数据公司副总裁AhuYildirmaz称，疫情危机的影响继续给各种规模的企业带来压力。尽管劳动力市场仍在受流感大流行的影响，但失业人数可能在4月份达到峰值，因为许多州已经开始分阶段恢复营业。
　　
However, another risk event broke out within the day, according toCNBCAccording to the latest report on Wednesday, the Trump administration will ban Chinese passenger airlines from flying to the United States from later this month, coinciding with China's ban on American airlines resuming flights to the United States. This order will be announced on Wednesday and will be released on6month16Effective date, but may be advanced. Sources said that the order applies to Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines Holding Company. After the release of the new US documents, the US Department of Transportation has requested that Air China, Capital Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, and Xiamen Airlines resubmit their flight schedules to the US Department of Transportation. The implementation of the "no fly order" will further intensify the tension between China and the United States, thus increasing the uncertainty of the future situation. It is believed that it will to some extent offset the impact of economic optimism, which will provide some support for the price of gold.

　　黄金行情走势分析：黄金多头动能不足，短期仍有回撤风险
　　
Technical analysis of gold: From a daily perspective, the golden dayKDraw a solid yin line and directly swallow the previous yang line, forming a clear reversal pattern of high yin wrapped in yang. This kind of yinKThe signal is a sudden appearance in the rebound and upward trend, causing gold bulls to temporarily lose their strong upward momentum4From an hourly perspective,4After a slow rise in the hour, there is a large bearish candlestick that retreats, and there is a lot of room for retreat, especially on Tuesday1745Horizontal consolidation took a long time, but ultimately broke through without success and fell back under pressure. Yesterday, the market opened with1727Below, the short-term chart seems to have further room for retreat.
　　
Currently, gold has plummeted30The US dollar has ample bearish momentum, and1700Defensive failure, continue to be bearish in the short term. The current market belongs to the low level market of retracement testing after accelerating upward trend,1682区域是这轮行情的阶段性低点，所以就现在的下跌来说，单晨金认为差不多了，当然空间其实已经不小了，特别是行情遇阻，从多转为震荡也需要时间来酝酿，而且对比之前上升来说，现在下跌算是一步到位式的，所以空单短线获利平仓后，价格即将临近1680First line, then1710就成了高点阻力了，顺势下跌的情况下前期的高点不会破，但是下跌应该要趋缓反弹了。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上单晨金个人建议以反弹做空为主，上方关注1708-1710One line of resistance, pay attention below1685-1688Frontline support.

　　亚欧盘黄金操作策略参考：
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Gold rebound1708-1710Short nearby, stop loss5Points, target1695-1690Nearby. Break the position to see1685frontline;
　　
Multiple order strategy:
　　
Gold Callback1685-1688Long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1695-1700Nearby, break down and take a look1705frontline;
　　
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Author of this article: Shan Chenjin
　　
Writing time:2020/06/04