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Fundamentals:
Monday(4month27day)goldPrice from1727附近下跌到最低1706附近,日线收阴线。
Today's data
Technical aspect:
日线上,黄金日线收阴线,目前处于短期线附近运行,5Japan and Japan10日均线金叉但方向混乱分歧大,中期线仍向上运行,MACD粘合将死叉形成,KDJ粘合,指标无方向。黄金前一波上涨从1450到近期高点1748Nearby, the increase is close to300The US dollar is approaching the limit of its previous year's increase, as seen in this way1748附近及上方很可能成为今年顶部了,也就是说即使上方还有空间,比如涨到1800,也还是顶部区域,而且很难再有多少空间,相比向下可能调整100-200美金空间来说空间已经很小了,再往上随时见今年顶部,一旦调整就是100-200美金空间。今年由于疫情影响,想要真正趋势转空还是需要等待疫情拐点,只有拐点出现后无限QE才可能停止,宽松流动性才会减弱,这样黄金才能走出持续性回调,否则拐点出现前即使回调100美金后仍然可能企稳继续拉升冲高,不过已经说了1748附近及上方就是顶部区域,所以预计未来1-2Maintain for a month1600-1748区间波动概率大,然后等待疫情逐步控制到达拐点,之后黄金才会开始真正回调下跌,目前看时间上可能是6From the beginning of the year to the beginning of the month, in terms of time cycle3Gold is showing a clear upward trend in the month, entering into3A wave appeared after the month1700-1450Great plunge, but due to insufficient liquidity, unlimited in the Federal ReserveQEAfter providing sufficient liquidity, gold began to soar and even broke through1700Pass, this indicates3After the month, it is not a downward trend, but currently it cannot be completely said to be an upward trend. From a spatial perspective, it is a large-scale fluctuation, which means3月份到现在整体其实是一个超大区间波动,只不过是波动空间太大,在更短的周期上看是趋势行情,但你退一步出来看是更偏向区间波动,那么12Month to3month3The period of one month is on an upward trend,3month-6The month should be a volatile market, but there is a lot of room for it. Wait until6A new trend market will only appear after the month, and it is likely that the epidemic has reached a turning point. As mentioned before, once the epidemic reaches a turning point, gold will fall6月份后黄金很可能走下跌趋势了,到时候将走出持续回调的走势,不再是来回震荡颠簸没有真正方向,不过也这一切的推断预测都是建立在6月出现拐点的前提下,这是未来中期需要注意的节奏,唯一改变这种预期的可能就是疫情影响时间大大超出预期。
日线昨天还是回落收出阴线,整体慢慢开始有利于短期空头,短期线虽然是金叉,但是方向是混乱的,说明这样的形态支撑力度不足,为下跌提供了条件,当然短期下方还有趋势线支撑,到底是否能出现大幅回落无法判断,中间跌至趋势线附近支撑企稳出现反弹拉升也是可能的,至于是否会是新的一波上涨还是说只是下跌中的反弹就不得而知了,不好判断,结合周线看5周均线附近支撑在1680附近,那么若本周出现调整,不排除跌至1680附近,日内短期支撑还是在1707-1700,跌破就毫无疑问转空,没跌破前可能还会反复颠簸,甚至出现反转向上的可能,所以短期交易最好的方式是短线中做带止损博弈,等待盘中每次反弹做空机会,然后盈利减仓持有到最终目标,比如1680-1660,然后再等待企稳布局多单,当然如果日线跌破1660,那么将打开下方空间,目标重回1600附近及下方。(Band Midline Trading Opportunity Reminder:1690-1700的空单下来1700附近先出来)
4小时震荡颠簸缓慢回落,目前处于短期线下方运行,短期线向下运行,中期线金叉但方向混乱,MACDRun down,KDJRunning downwards, the indicator is bearish.4小时两次冲击1639-1636后开始震荡回落,沿着短期线缓慢下行,目前即将触及趋势线支撑,没有跌破趋势线前企稳仍然可能会拉升冲击新高,跌破将加速下跌,然后关注1680-1660支撑,不跌破企稳仍有机会大幅拉升,若跌破1660将打开下方空间,跌至1600附近及下方,今天趋势线支撑在1700Nearby, overall view4小时短期更明显要回落下跌,除非无法真正跌破1700关口,那就要重新看多,今天日内盘中先反弹短期线附近高空为主,压力大概在1710-1715Follow1700附近支撑跌不破企稳做多,或者1680-1660Stabilize and go long.
pressure1710-1715-1720-1740-1748-1800
brace1700-1680-1660-1600-1570-1500-1450-1400-1350
Spot gold:
1. 1707-1710Short selling, stop loss1719, Objective1700-1690-1680-1660-1600
2. 1670-1680Long, stop loss1659, Objective1690-1700-1720-1740-1748-1800