MEX Group:Morning Express-经济衰退预期强烈，市场仍需紧盯美元。

Focus of foreign exchange market
Trading preference – 本周策略和上周策略保持一样，继续看弱欧/Beauty（EURUSD）,并认为澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）已经接近高位，还未兑现利润的冲高可兑现部分利润。
欧洲方面，今日将召开欧盟峰会，由于欧盟内部还存在分歧，欧元也因此承压。另外，今日欧元区各国将公布制造业数据，我们认为悲观的经济预期将继续施压欧元。技术上，支撑下移到1.0800，而且跌破的可能非常大。
英国方面，就目前来看，英国的发病率依然处于相对高位，这不免令投资者感到担忧。同时疫情也干扰了原计划中的英欧过渡期谈判进程，另外，英国方面仍拒绝延长谈判期限，这也令英镑承压。因此，我们还是维持英镑为偏弱结构，技术上，支撑下移到1.2200。

商品货币方面，油价在近期大幅下跌后反弹，缓解了大宗商品相关货币的压力。此外，澳大利亚强劲的零售数据也推动澳元领涨其他货币。但我们还是维持原来的观点，冲高可兑现利润。技术上，短线关注澳/beautiful0.6200, New/beautiful0.5900Support.

避险货币方面，虽然油价出现了一定程度回升，但全球疫情仍然严峻，这也促使投资者仍然坚定持有美元避险。而且，短期来看这样的格局不会有太大改变，因此，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，100关口基本已经有效站稳，上方关注101Pressure.
beautiful/日近期波动不大，因避险情绪上升，日元获得了一定支撑，短期，我们还是维持日元相比于美元可能更具优势。所以，维持美/The day is a fluctuating structure.


It is worth noting that the money market is2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX動量反轉量化策略因而一再創下新高，投資者在2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combinations for the year.
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7货币对冲组合》。组合净值上周下跌0.06%。本周组合及截至北京时间4month23day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).


commodity market
Trading preference – 下半周我们维持gold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，随着美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，也再度提振了金价，总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏强结构。
油价方面，受助于OPEC产油国可能进一步减产的初步迹象和美国库存增幅没有预期得那么可怕，油价上涨。不过我们认为短期需求的疲弱仍将限制油价。中长期来看，我们认为短期油价的下跌将会为未来油价提供一个相对“底部”，正所谓不破不立，我们更多需要的是时间。


stock market indexprospect
股指方面，恒指周三低开高走，盘初一度跌约1.3%，随后不断发力向上，午后涨幅继续扩大。收盘恒指涨0.42%。盘面上，阿里概念股大涨，航空股、半导体板块均上扬。近期建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.

Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.
Europe/美可继续持有。
Target price    Europe/beautiful    beautiful/day    Pound/beautiful    beautiful/plus    Australia/beautiful    Newtonian/beautiful
short-term    1.0800    107.50    1.2300    1.4200    0.6300    0.5900
midline    1.0800    108.00    1.2200    1.4200    0.6250    0.5900
Target price    WTI    XAU
short-term    7.00    1,700
midline    7.00    1,700