MBG Markets-Morning Express2020-04-22

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – 本周策略和上周策略保持一样，继续看弱欧/Beauty（EURUSD）,并认为Australia/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）已经接近高位，还未兑现利润的冲高可兑现部分利润。[/li]

[li]On the European side,就目前来看，市场对欧洲央行可能在今日会议上讨论是否接受垃圾债作抵押品的报导应不大。本周重点建议关注明日的欧盟峰会，如果欧盟内部还存在分歧，短期或将继续令欧元承压。技术上，支撑下移到1.0800。[/li]

[li]On the UK side,Pound/美昨日创近四周最大跌幅，主要因失业数据低迷，且脱欧风险再度回到人们视野。今日英国将公布通胀数据，结合近期经济数据，我们认为依旧偏弱。therefore，我们still维持英镑为偏弱结构，Technically，已破1.2400，支撑下移到1.2200。[/li]

[li]In terms of commodity currency,油市暴跌，股市下行，投资者逃离风险较高的资产，商品货币纽元、澳元跌幅居前。其实，我们在上周就已经给出建议冲高可兑现利润，现已如期实现。技术上，短线关注澳/beautiful0.6200, New/beautiful0.5900Support.[/li]

[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,因疫情影响和油价狂泻，市场资金从大宗商品货币和其他风险资产转移到美元计价的避险资产。另外，短期疲弱的经济资料或将进一步推动美元上涨。总的来看，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，短期关注100是否有效突破。[/li]

[li]beautiful/日近期波动不大，因全球股市下跌，日元获得了一定支撑，短期，我们还是维持日元相比于美元可能更具优势。所以，维持美/The day is a fluctuating structure.[/li]

[li]It is worth noting that the money market is2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combinations for the year.[/li]

[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％。组合净值上周下跌0.06%。This week's combination and as of Beijing time4month22day07:03The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).[/li]

commodity market

[li]Trading preference – second halfWe maintain the weekly schedulegold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For oscillating structures.长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，各国央行为缓解新冠病毒疫情对经济造成的损害而采取的一系列刺激措施，以及ETF市场的增持，我们认为可能会继续支撑金价。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡结构。[/li]

[li]In terms of oil prices,库存问题已经成为影响油价的主要因素，因美国原油库存即将爆满，美原油连续暴跌，若今晚的EIA原油库存继续大增，油价可能进一步承压。中长期来看，We believe that短期油价的下跌将会为未来oil price提供一个相对“底部”，正所谓不破不立，我们更多需要的是time。[/li]

stock market indexprospect

[li]股指方面，港股周二低开低走，早盘便失守24000点关口，午后未见起色。收盘恒指跌2.2%，50只成分股仅有一只上涨。所以，建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.[/li]

[li]Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.[/li][li]Europe/美可继续持有。[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.0850	107.50	1.2300	1.4200	0.6300	0.5950
midline	1.0800	108.00	1.2200	1.4200	0.6250	0.5900

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	7.00	1,680
midline	7.00	1,680

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