MBG Markets:国际油价暴跌，避险还需看美元

Market Focus

Trading preference – 本周策略和上周策略保持一样，继续看弱欧/Beauty（EURUSD）,并认为澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）已经接近高位，还未兑现利润的冲高可兑现部分利润。
欧洲方面，本周四将召开的欧盟峰会，讨论如何应对新冠疫情的经济影响，考虑到欧盟内部还存在一定分歧，短期或将令欧元承压。技术上，支撑下移到1.0800，1.1000It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.
英国方面，周一，英国与和欧盟已经正式开启第二轮谈判，考虑到疫情影响，增加了无协议“脱欧”的可能性，因此，我们维持英镑为偏弱结构。另外，今日英国将公布一系列经济数据，疲弱的经济或将继续施压英镑。技术上，1.2650已转化为中期压力，短期关注1.2400Support.

商品货币方面，随着全球经下行的压力加剧，我们建议投资者可兑现近期利润。今日，澳洲联储将公布4月货币政策会议纪要，料偏鸽派。技术上，澳/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6150已转化为中期压力，短线关注澳/beautiful0.6200, New/beautiful0.6000Support.

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

避险货币方面，油价狂泻提升了美元作为避险资产的吸引力。另外，就目前来看，市场获取美元的成本依旧很高，美元紧缺或将进一步推动美元上涨。总的来看，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，短期100有一定压力。
beautiful/日近期并没有太大波动，短期来看，日元相比于美元可能短时间更具优势。所以，我们认为美/日恐难有太大升幅。

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBG量化策略年初至今已大幅跑赢标的。组合净值上周下跌0.06%。本周组合及截至北京时间4month21day07:01The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).



commodity market


Trading preference – 下半周我们维持gold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，因创纪录油价下跌刺激了避险需求，油价走势震撼了市场，导致美国股市下跌，投资者远离高风险资产，进入黄金之类的避风港。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡结构。
油价方面，由于市场预计短期依然不能解决供应过剩的局面，叠加因重要原油交割地库欣的储油空间接近极限，加剧了对即将到期的原油合约的抛售，油价暴跌。中长期来看，我们认为短期油价的下跌将会为未来油价提供一个相对“底部”，正所谓不破不立，我们更多需要的是时间。




stock market indexprospect

股指方面，港股周一高开后触底，收盘恒指跌0.21%。盘面上，互联网医疗板块领涨，阿里概念股、内地医药股、游戏软件股均有不同程度涨幅。考虑到国际油价暴跌，WTIcrude oilfutures首次跌破负值，或将拖累能源股表现，建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。



abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.

Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.
Europe/美可继续持有。



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