Liu Zhixin: Zhong long Analysis of Short term Factors Affecting Crude Oil Prices

　　刘智辛：中 long Short term impactcrude oilAnalysis of Price Factors
　　
　　纵观整个市场，不是广告就是人性的挣扎，抱怨声此起彼伏，在这个市场赚钱相当不易。很多人已经失去了判断的方向，麻木了！刘智辛愿平复这场战争！带你先了解影响原油价格的因素；
　　
　　石油除了一般商品属性外，还具有战略物资的属性，其价格和供应很大程度上受政治势力和政治局势的影响。近年来，随着政治多极化、经济全球化、生产国际化的发展，争夺石油资源和控制石油市场，已成为油市动荡和油价飙涨的重要原因。
　　
　　石油（原油），也称黑色金子，是一种不可再生能源，有着广泛的用途，与我们的日常生活息息相关，石油的价格关系着国计民生和世界经济政治格局。受诸多因素共同影响，最近油价上下波幅明显，在冻产会议之前，后市改如何下去？想了解这个问题，我们必须先了解哪些因素能对原油市场带来直接影响，刘智辛根据多年的市场经验以及总结之前原油大趋势的走势。讲解一下影响油价变动的几类因素
　　
　　
　　原油需求与原油价格成正比例关系;
　　
　　原油供给与原油价格成反比例关系;
　　
　　美元指数与原油价格成反比例关系;
　　
　　地缘冲突与原油价格成正比例关系
　　
　　
　　因素一：原油需求
　　
　　原油的需求主要由世界经济发展水平及经济结构变化，替代能源的发展和节能技术的应用决定。目前原油需求方面的数据主要看美国等大型工业国的用油需求量，如工业产出月率、制造业PMIValue, etc.
　　
　　
　　1Global oil consumption is significantly positively correlated with the global economic growth rate. Global economic growth or unexpected growth will drive up international crude oil market prices. The strong economic growth of developing countries represented by China and India has also led to a sharp increase in demand for crude oil, resulting in fluctuating world crude oil prices. Liu Zhixin learned that China's demand for oil has driven the growth of global oil consumption1/3Conversely, abnormally high oil prices are bound to hinder the development of the world economy, and a slowdown in global economic growth will affect the increase in oil demand.
　　
　　
　　2The cost of alternative energy will determine the upper limit of oil prices. When the price of oil is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Energy conservation will ease the supply-demand imbalance in the global oil market. At present, countries are vigorously developing renewable energy and energy-saving technologies, which will inevitably have an impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.
　　
　　
　　因素二：原油供给
　　
　　影响石油价格的供给因素主要包括世界石油储量，石油供给结构以及石油生产成本。目前供给上的影响主要通过美国EIACrude oil inventoryAPIQuantify the impact of crude oil inventory and the production of some major international oil exporting countries on data.
　　
　　
　　1Oil supply must be based on oil reserves. In the past few decades, the proven reserves of world oil resources have been continuously increasing. However, due to the non renewability of oil resources, the International Energy Agency predicts that world oil production will be2015The peak was reached before the year, and the global oil supply gradually entered a phase of decline.
　　
　　
　　2The supply characteristics of the world oil market also have a significant impact on oil supply. At present, the main suppliers of the world oil market include the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)And nonOPECcountry.OPECHaving the vast majority of the world's proven oil reserves, its production and pricing policies have a significant impact on global oil supply and prices. rather thanOPECThe state primarily exists as a price taker, adjusting production based on prices.
　　
　　
　　3The cost of oil production will also have an impact on oil supply. As a non renewable energy source, the production cost of oil will affect producers' cross period production allocation decisions, thereby affecting market supply and indirectly causing fluctuations in oil prices. The lower limit of world oil prices is generally determined by the oil production in high cost regions, while the oil in low-cost regions determines the fluctuation range of prices.
　　
　　
　　因素三：美元指数
　　
　　汇率变动；石油价格变动和美元与国际主要货币之间的汇率变动存在弱相关关系。由于美元持续贬值，以美元标价的石油产品的实际收入下降，导致石油输出国组织以维持原油高价作为应对措施。
　　
　　原油价格历来都是和美元紧密挂钩的，其交割和计价都是用美元来结算，所以美元指数也会对原油价格产生影响。石油价格变动和美元指数变动成一定的反相关关系。比如美元若持续贬值，以美元标价的石油产品的实际收入下降，导致石油输出国组织就需要通过提升原油价格作为应对措施来保持其价值的相对稳定。同理，若美元升值，则油价会有所下调。
　　
　　
　　因素四：地缘冲突
　　
　　在影响油价的因素中，地缘政治是不可忽视的重要因素之一。在地缘政治中，世界主要产油国的国内外发生革命或者暴乱，中东地区爆发战争，包括恐怖分子在世界范围内的暴动等等，都会对油价产生重大的影响。这些在历史油价图中反映的一清二楚。自1971Year to2008Since the beginning of the year, the chart of changes in international oil prices clearly shows that any geopolitical conflict will inevitably trigger significant fluctuations in oil prices.
　　
　　
　　因素五：影响石油价格的短期因素
　　
　　短期影响因素是通过对供求关系造成冲击或短期内改变人们对供求关系的预期而对石油价格发挥作用的。
　　
　　1.Sudden major political events
　　
　　
　　2.Changes in oil inventory
　　
　　库存是供给和需求之间的一个缓冲，对稳定油价有积极作用。oecdThe inventory level has become an indicator of international oil prices, and the impact of commercial inventory on oil prices is significantly stronger than that of conventional inventory. whenfuturesWhen the price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory, stimulate the rise of spot prices, and reduce the spread between futures and spot prices; When futures prices are lower than spot prices, oil companies tend to reduce commercial inventory, resulting in a decrease in spot prices and a reasonable price difference with futures prices.
　　
　　
　　2.OPECAnd the International Energy Agency（IEA）Market intervention
　　
　　OPECControlling the vast majority of the world's remaining oil production capacity,IEAThey have a large amount of oil reserves, which can change the market supply and demand pattern in a short period of time, thereby changing people's expectations of oil price trends.OPECThe main policies are to limit production and maintain prices, and to reduce prices to maintain production.IEAof26Each member country jointly controls a large amount of oil reserves to cope with emergency situations.
　　
　　
　　3.Short term flow of funds in the international capital market
　　
　　20century90Since the 1960s, the international oil market has been characterized by a significant increase in the influence of the futures market, and a price formation mechanism has been formed that transmits from the futures market to the spot market. Although speculative activities in the international crude oil market are not the triggering factor for the rise in oil prices, the lack of investment opportunities in the global financial market has led to a large amount of funds entering the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, inevitably pushing up international oil prices and causing them to deviate significantly from fundamentals.
　　
　　
　　6.Abnormal climate
　　
　　欧美许多国家用石油作为取暖的燃料，因此，当气候变化异常时，会引起燃料油需求的短期变动，从而带动原油和其他油品的价格变化。另外，异常的天气可能会对石油生产设施造成破坏，导致供给中断，从而影响油价。
　　
　　
　　7.Interest rate fluctuations
　　
　　在标准不可再生资源模型中，利率的上升会导致未来开采价值相对现在开采价值减少，因此会使得开采路径凸向现在而远离未来。高利率会减少资本投资，导致较小的初始开采规模；高利率也会提高替代技术的资本成本，导致开采速度下降。
　　
　　
　　8.tax policy
　　
　　政府干预会使得市场消耗曲线凸向现在或未来。跨时期石油开采模式的税收效应依赖于税收随时间变化的现值。例如，税收现值随时间减少会改变开采顺序的决策。和不征税相比，税收最终还是会减少任意时点上的净收益，也就减少了相应时期开采的积极性。而且税收会降低新发现储量的投资回报。
　　
　　详细进出场做单方式及风控通知，以及原油，foreign exchangeWait for operational suggestions to analyze the transaction, talk to Liu Zhixin(WeChat:qgf9696)Obtain guidance information on physical warehousing.