MBG Markets：黄金高位回落，商品货币冲高可兑现部分利润

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – This week is relatively weak compared to Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）,And I think it was recommended last weekAustralia/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）It is close to a high level and can partially realize profits.
[/li][li]On the European side,欧盟理事会将于下周召开会议讨论刺激措施，短期对于欧元而言形成了一定支撑。但考虑到欧元区经济前景依然黯淡，欧元或将中期承压。Technically,支撑下移到1.0800，1.1000It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.
[/li][li]On the UK side,为应对新冠病毒疫情，英国将停摆期延长三周。另外，英国表示将拒绝欧盟任何延长脱欧过渡期的要求，这对于英镑而言构成了一定压力。Technically，1.2650已转化为中期pressureShort termfollow1.2400brace。
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,从澳大利亚公布的3月就业数据来看，录得0.59万人，短线对于澳元形成了一定支撑，但疫情对澳洲经济的冲击已非常明显，因此，我们认为澳/美或将继续走弱。技术上，澳/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6150已转化为中期压力，短线关注澳/beautiful0.6200, New/beautiful0.5900Support.
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,因就业数据触目惊心推动投资者避险，美元大涨，但随后因投资者获利了结也限制了其升幅。另外，市场获取美元的成本依旧很高，美元紧缺或将进一步推动美元上涨。总的来看，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，短期100有一定压力。
[/li][li]beautiful/日因美元上涨而小幅上升，但是随着美元巨量的流动性释放，市场对于美元的追捧实际上已经有所缓解，这使得日元相比于美元可能短时间更具优势。所以，我们认为美/日恐难有太大升幅。
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[li]It is worth noting that the money market is2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combinations for the year.
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[li]MEX Quantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week4.52%And set a new historical high.This week's combination and as of Beijing time4month17day07:04The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference – second halfWe maintain the weekly schedulegold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For oscillating structures.长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，市场对美国放松疫情限制措施的希望升温，也削弱了黄金的避险需求。Overall, we still maintain a strong and volatile structure for gold.
[/li][li]In terms of oil prices,Although OPEC+达成减产协议对油价形成一定利多。但市场预计短期依然不能解决供应过剩的局面，油价下跌。中长期来看，我们认为这确实为oil price未来提供了一个价格“底部”，短期的破位是为了更好的立，We需要等待的是time。
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stock market indexprospect

[li]股指方面，港股周四低开低走，早盘开跌0.5%，跌幅一度扩大至1.2%，午后缩窄跌幅，最终恒指收跌0.58%。盘面上，在线教育股持续走高，在线医疗股活跃；电信股疲软。Considering the impact of the epidemic, it is recommended that investors still prioritize defense. In terms of technical form,24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。
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abstract

[li]CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.
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[li]Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.0850	107.50	1.2500	1.4050	0.6350	0.6000
midline	1.0850	107.50	1.2500	1.4050	0.6300	0.5900

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	20.00	1,710
midline	20.00	1,710

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