Jinrong China: Trump announces economic restart plan, gold price expands and falls, maintaining volatility

Market Review:
  internationalgoldThursday（4month16Japan) maintains a volatile trend, opening price1713.37dollar/Ounces, highest price1738.83dollar/Ounces, lowest price1709.98dollar/Ounces, closing price1722.49dollar/ounce.
Message surface:
Thursday's announcement from the United States to4month11Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week524.510000 people, higher than market expectations510.510000 people.


S&P analysis, expected to annualize in the second quarter of the United StatesGDPShrinking Near35%。 U.S.A5The overall monthly unemployment rate may reach19%。
Moody's Analytics predicts that the average US unemployment rate in the second quarter will be8.8%-16.2%。
Friday Beijing time（4month17Trump said in the morning that the United States has passed the peak of the COVID-19. We are opening up our country, and we must do so. The federal government's guidelines allow for phased reopening. The economy will recover in three stages. Some states have the capacity to reopen starting tomorrow. Most parts of the United States could consider reopening.29The state should be able to reopen soon. We are formulating a package of infrastructure measures, which may reach a scale of2Trillion dollars and attempts to increase capital for loan projects (small business loan program) that have exhausted funds2500USD100mn
The report shows that Trump has formulated guidelines for states to restart the economy in three stages, setting out the testing standards that states must meet and requiring prompt provision of protective equipment for reopening. Governors of each state can implement guidelines based on their own state situation, without relying on orders from the federal government. This guideline is called 'Open America Again' and has not yet been officially released. Trump has already distributed the document to governors of various states. Call for the continuation of remote work as much as possible, phased resumption of work, reduction of non essential travel, and measures to maintain social distancing in the 'first phase'; In the 'second phase' (states with no signs of a resurgence in the epidemic), unnecessary travel can be resumed, schools and organized youth activities can be reopened, and bars, gyms, and large venues can be reopened with social distancing measures in place. In the "third stage", vulnerable groups can resume using public transportation, but should maintain distance, and low-risk groups should consider minimizing their stay time in densely populated areas.
New York Governor Cuomo announced that the lockdown measures in New York State will be extended until5month15Day.
Federal Reserve official Huck said that economic recovery will take place in one industry after another, and public activities will resume in the end. Many job positions will be restored, but gradually. The Federal Reserve does not intend to bring everything in the financial market back to its original level, but will assist in its operation. The unprecedented impact has caused a lot of chaos in the economy.
Federal Reserve official Brad said that if the correct decision is made on the testing issue, it may be possible to achieveVType of recovery. The possible outcomes facing the economy include recession. It is expected that the lockdown measures will have a serious impact on the economy.
Federal Reserve official Williams said that caution may slow down the pace of economic recovery after the crisis. One of the risks facing the global economy is that we have not yet seen the full impact of COVID-19 because there has not been a large-scale outbreak in some regions. It may take several months or quarters before people are willing to return to public events such as Broadway and concerts. It may take one to two years to fully recover the economy, but restarting the economy will be earlier than this time. Learn from China and Europe's experience in restarting the economy. There is no sign of a reversal in the long-term downward trend of interest rates. The economy may perform poorly for a period of time. Low interest rates are boosting the economy. It is believed that there will be more economic pains to come. It is not yet clear to what extent the economy will be harmed. The market function has improved, but pressure still exists.
Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that restoring consumer confidence is the biggest challenge facing economic recovery. Restarting the economy cannot wait until the infection rate drops to zero. In this crisis, the actions of the Federal Reserve can only rank third after health and fiscal measures.
Federal Reserve official Kaplan said that the highest unemployment rate could reach15%Approaching20%The interval. We will see many examples of failures (corporate bankruptcies) in the oil industry. The growth rate of the US economy will be2021Annual growth rate higher than potential. But the crisis may lower the potential economic growth rate in the long run. It is expected that the US economy will experience a steady recovery, but there are still doubts about consumer confidence. Consumers may need to2021It takes years to stabilize. It is expected that the US economy will start to grow again in the third quarter. It is expected that by the end of this year, the unemployment rate may reach8%、9%or10%My views on the economy are basically the same as two weeks ago.
Federal Reserve official Bostic said that forward guidance on determining the path of monetary policy may be the next oneFOMCPart of the meeting discussion. Economic recovery is expected to mean that the Federal Reserve's loans will be repaid soon. It would not be surprising if there were new pressures leading the Federal Reserve to take further action. Atlanta Fed staff report predicts that small businesses' monthly funding needs may be as high as5000USD100mn It is important to save as many businesses as possible.
IMFDuring the epidemic, Latin American countries will face severe economic recession,2020The annual economy will shrink5.2%The Latin American region2015-2025The year may face another 'lost decade'. most likely2015Year to2025During the year, there was no economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean.
HSBC analysis states that it will2020Year and2021The average annual spot gold prices have been raised to1743dollar/Ounces and1690dollar/Ounces, previously were1690dollar/Ounces and1613dollar/ounce.
Eurozone:
Sky News reports that the UK will extend its lockdown measures. The Chief Minister of Wales stated that the Scottish, Northern Irish, and British governments have confirmed the extension of the lockdown measures by three weeks.
according toCMEFederal Reserve Watch: The Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates at0%-0.25%The probability of the interval until next year3Monthly average100%。
Today's Focus
17:00 eurozone3monthCPIMonthly and annual final values
22:00 U.S.A3Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate
Technical aspect:




International gold prices fluctuated and closed lower on Thursday, while gold prices remained stable at the beginning of the Asian market opening on Thursday1717-1713Narrow range oscillation, gold price expands rebound in afternoon session, short-term range gradually moves up to maintain stability1725-1720Organize the intervals. Gold prices hit their highest point before and after the opening of the US market1738On the front line, gold prices fluctuated and fell back in the US market, falling again. On Friday morning, gold prices hit their lowest point1703Short term retracement after first line1717Gradually maintain stability. The short-term gold price range has changed and still maintains a relatively obvious oscillation trend, without showing significant momentum to shake off the oscillation. The daily chart has a longer shadow and a smaller shadowKThe overall daily moving average is arranged in an upward divergent pattern, and the short-term decline in gold prices will still face the impact of technical indicator support levels. The four hour chart shows that the short-term gold price has fallen back and the consolidation range has fallen again, falling to the four hour technical indicator support pressure level price range20Daily moving average and40Daily moving average consolidation range（1720-1698）During the short-term decline, the support level prices have shown positive performance, and the intraday gold price is still difficult to change its bullish oscillation trend. Therefore, it is cautious to maintain a bullish range operation strategy during the day.
Daily operating range:
  Multiple orders:
    radical1710Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1714upper
    steady1698Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1704upper
  Empty order:
   radical1725Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1721Below
   steady1740Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1735Below
Trump announces economic restart plan, gold price expands and falls to maintain volatility, cautiously lowers intraday long entry expectations, and maintains a bullish range operation strategy