MBG Markets-Morning Express2020-04-16

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – This week is relatively weak compared to Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）,And I think it was recommended last weekAustralia/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）It is close to a high level and can partially realize profits.[/li]

[li]On the European side,Yesterday, the euro experienced a significant pullback, partly due to the sharp rise in the US dollar, and partly due to Italy and Greece leading the decline in peripheral European bonds. Overall, we believe that the economic outlook for the eurozone remains bleak, and the euro may come under pressure in the medium term.Technically,1.0900Fear of being breached，1.1000It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.[/li]

[li]On the UK side,We reminded everyone a few days ago1.2650It is a key resistance level, and it is recommended that everyone profit and exit around this price range. It has already been realized.At present, the decline of the pound is mainly due to two aspects: one is the strength of the US dollar, and the other is the upcoming expansion of the balance sheet of the Bank of England.Technically,resistance1.2650, support1.2400。[/li]

In terms of commodity currency,As the COVID-19 has led to a sharp decline in global economic activity, the combination of the bleak economic data of the United States has intensified people's concerns, and commodity currencies have fallen sharply.Today Australia will announce3We believe that the monthly employment data may put pressure on the Australian dollar. In addition, oil prices have fallen2002The lowest level since the beginning of the year has further hit the Canadian dollar. Technically speaking, Australia/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6150It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.

[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,As the COVID-19 led to a sharp decline in economic activity, the dismal US retail sales data and manufacturing data intensified people's concerns about economic growth, and stimulated safe haven buying to push the US dollar up sharply. However, the sharp decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds also reduced the rise of the US dollar.OverallWe still maintain a strong structure of the US dollar, technically speaking, in the short term100There is some pressure。[/li]

[li]beautiful/Due to the rise in the US dollar, there has been a slight increase in the daily trend. In fact, we have already informed everyone in last night's report.Technically,107nearbyStrong support.[/li]

[li]It is worth noting that the money market is2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combinations for the year.[/li]

[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％。The net value of the portfolio increased last week4.52%And set a new historical high.This week's combination and as of Beijing time4month16day07:06The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).[/li]

commodity market

[li]Trading preference – second halfWe maintain the weekly schedulegold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For oscillating structures.In the long run, low global interest rates provide support for gold. In the short term, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and investors' eagerness to profit from the high point in nearly seven years, gold has fallen back.Overall, we still maintain a strong and volatile structure for gold.[/li]

[li]In terms of oil prices,OPEC+A production reduction agreement has been reached, which has a certain positive impact on oil prices. However, given the ongoing severity of the epidemic and the possibility of a very slow economic recovery, it is still difficult to change the weak demand and lead to a decline in oil prices.totalofcome and see，We believe that this does provide a price 'bottom' for the future.In the short term, there seems to be a sense of neither breaking nor standing, so we will maintain the structure of oil prices at their previous low levels.[/li]

stock market indexprospect

[li]In terms of stock indices, the Hang Seng Index opened higher on Wednesday0.26%In the morning, it rose slightly and then continued to decline, and in the evening, it fell nearly300Point, ultimately closing down1.19%In terms of sectors, international oil prices have weakened again, dragging down the collective decline of the Hong Kong oil sector.Considering the impact of the epidemic, it is recommended that investors still prioritize defense. In terms of technical form,24500There is some pressure, below23000It's short-term support[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.[/li]

[li]Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.0850	107.50	1.2500	1.4100	0.6300	0.5950
midline	1.0850	108.00	1.2400	1.4200	0.6250	0.5900

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	19.00	1,710
midline	20.00	1,710

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