MEX Group:避险买盘继续推动美元大涨，商品货币或将继续孱弱

Focus of foreign exchange market
Trading preference – This week is relatively weak compared to Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）,And believe that the Australia recommended last week/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）It is close to a high level and can partially realize profits.
欧洲方面，昨日欧元回撤幅度较大，一方面是因美元大幅上涨，另一方面是因意大利和希腊领跌外围欧债。总的来看，我们认为欧元区经济前景依然黯淡，欧元或将中期承压。技术上，1.0900恐将被跌破，1.1000It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.
英国方面，在前两日我们就提示了大家1.2650是一个关键阻力位，并建议大家在此价位附近获利出局，现基本已经兑现。就目前来看英镑的回落主要有两个方面，一是因美元的强势，二是因英国央行资产负债表即将扩表。技术上，阻力1.2650, support1.2400。

商品货币方面，由于新冠疫情导致全球经济活动急剧下滑，叠加美国经济数据惨淡加剧了人们的担忧，商品货币大跌。今日澳大利亚将公布3We believe that the monthly employment data may put pressure on the Australian dollar. In addition, oil prices have fallen2002The lowest level since the beginning of the year has further hit the Canadian dollar. Technically speaking, Australia/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6150It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.


避险货币方面，由于新冠疫情导致经济活动急剧下滑，美国零售销售数据和制造业数据的惨淡，加剧了人们对经济增长担忧，并刺激了避险买盘推动美元大涨，但随着美国国债收益率的急剧下降也削减了美元涨幅。总的来看，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，短期100有一定压力。
beautiful/日因美元上涨而小幅上升，其实在昨晚的报告里我们就已经提示过大家。技术上，107附近有较强支撑。


It is worth noting that the money market is2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX動量反轉量化策略因而一再創下新高，投資者在2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combinations for the year.
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency Hedge Portfolio. The net value of the portfolio increased last week4.52%，并再创历史新高。本周组合及截至北京时间4month16day07:06The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).


commodity market
Trading preference – 下半周我们维持gold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。短期因美元走强，且投资者急于从近七年高点获利了结，黄金有所回落。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏强结构。
油价方面，欧佩克+已达成减产协议，这对油价形成一定利多。但鉴于疫情依旧严峻，经济复苏可能非常缓慢，依然难以改变需求的疲弱，油价下行。总的来看，我们认为这确实为未来提供了一个价格“底部”。短期来看，似乎有不破不立的味道，因此我们维持油价为破前低的结构。


stock market indexprospect
In terms of stock indices, the Hang Seng Index opened higher on Wednesday0.26%In the morning, it rose slightly and then continued to decline, and in the evening, it fell nearly300Point, ultimately closing down1.19%。板块方面，国际油价再度走弱，拖累港股石油板块集体下挫。考虑到疫情的影响，建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000It's short-term support

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.

Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.
Target price        Europe/beautiful        beautiful/day        Pound/beautiful        beautiful/plus        Australia/beautiful        Newtonian/beautiful
short-term        1.0850        107.50        1.2500        1.4100        0.6300        0.5950
midline        1.0850        108.00        1.2400        1.4200        0.6250        0.5900
Target price        WTI        XAU
short-term        19.00        1,710
midline        20.00        1,710