MEX每日快讯丨避险买盘继续推动美元大涨，商品货币或将继续孱弱

Focus of foreign exchange market

Trading preference – This week is relatively weak compared to Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）,And believe that the Australia recommended last week/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）It is close to a high level and can partially realize profits.
On the European side,Yesterday, the euro experienced a significant pullback, partly due to the sharp rise in the US dollar, and partly due to Italy and Greece leading the decline in peripheral European bonds. Overall, we believe that the economic outlook for the eurozone remains bleak, and the euro may come under pressure in the medium term.Technically,1.0900恐将被跌破，1.1000It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.
On the UK side,We reminded everyone a few days ago1.2650It is a key resistance level, and it is recommended that everyone profit and exit around this price range. It has already been realized.就目前来看英镑的回落主要有两个方面，一是因美元的强势，二是因英国央行资产负债表即将扩表。技术上，阻力1.2650, support1.2400。
In terms of commodity currency,As the COVID-19 has led to a sharp decline in global economic activity, the combination of the bleak economic data of the United States has intensified people's concerns, and commodity currencies have fallen sharply.Today Australia will announce3We believe that the monthly employment data may put pressure on the Australian dollar. In addition, oil prices have fallen2002The lowest level since the beginning of the year has further hit the Canadian dollar. Technically speaking, Australia/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6150It has been transformed into mid-term pressure.
It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
In terms of safe haven currencies,As the COVID-19 led to a sharp decline in economic activity, the dismal US retail sales data and manufacturing data intensified people's concerns about economic growth, and stimulated safe haven buying to push the US dollar up sharply. However, the sharp decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds also reduced the rise of the US dollar.总的来看，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，短期100有一定压力。
beautiful/Due to the rise in the US dollar, there has been a slight increase in the daily trend. In fact, we have already informed everyone in last night's report.Technically,107附近有较强支撑。
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week4.52%And set a new historical high.This week's combination and as of Beijing time4month16day07:06The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

commodity market

Trading preference – 下半周我们维持gold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For oscillating structures.In the long run, low global interest rates provide support for gold. In the short term, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and investors' eagerness to profit from the high point in nearly seven years, gold has fallen back.Overall, we still maintain a strong and volatile structure for gold.
In terms of oil prices,OPEC+A production reduction agreement has been reached, which has a certain positive impact on oil prices. However, given the ongoing severity of the epidemic and the possibility of a very slow economic recovery, it is still difficult to change the weak demand and lead to a decline in oil prices.总的来看，我们认为这确实为未来提供了一个价格“底部”。短期来看，似乎有不破不立的味道，因此我们维持油价为破前低的结构。

stock market indexprospect

In terms of stock indices, the Hang Seng Index opened higher on Wednesday0.26%In the morning, it rose slightly and then continued to decline, and in the evening, it fell nearly300Point, ultimately closing down1.19%In terms of sectors, international oil prices have weakened again, dragging down the collective decline of the Hong Kong oil sector.Considering the impact of the epidemic, it is recommended that investors still prioritize defense. In terms of technical form,24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.
Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.

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