MBG Markets:黄金创近七年新高，油价再度击穿20USD barrier

Market Focus

Trading preference – This week is relatively weak compared to Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）,And believe that the Australia recommended last week/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）It is close to a high level and can partially realize profits.
欧洲方面，近日欧元涨势喜人，一是受美元回落的支撑，二是受空头回补提振，因有迹象显示欧元区的疫情有所缓解。但考虑到欧元区经济前景依然黯淡，因此，本周我们维持欧元为先升后跌的结构。技术上，支撑上移到1.0900Pressure1.1000在逐渐减小，中期压力上移到1.1100。
英国方面，随着美元流动性这一问题得到缓解，这在一定程度上也利好英镑，另外，英国首相康复出院对英镑形成了一定支撑。技术上，长期均线依然存在明显压制，如继续上攻1.2650以上将面临较大压力，因此投资者可以考虑在此价位附近兑现部分利润。

商品货币方面，随着疫情得到缓解，全球股市的上涨，继续利好澳元、纽元。另外，好于预期的中国出口数据也令澳元涨幅扩大，但考虑到澳大利亚将于周四将公布3月就业数据，由于疫情影响，我们认为或将施压澳元。因此，我们认为商品货币短期已经接近高位，可以兑现部分利润。技术上，短期澳/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6200将面临一定压力。

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

避险货币方面，短期来看美元还将继续承压，主要是因美联储通过一系列措施向金融体系注入大量美元，加剧了当前美元的疲态。不过，考虑到市场对于避险和现金的需求，美元或许不会出现太大幅下行。
Tonight?20:30美国将公布3月零售销售月率，预期为-8%，这将创下历史新低，降幅甚至超金融危机时两倍，值得投资者关注。因此，我们预计美元将再次陷入震荡，技术上，关注98.5Nearby support.
beautiful/日一方面受到美元影响，另外一方面受到gold上涨影响，短线出现了一定回落。我们还是保持原来的观点，美/日短期或将继续保持弱势。

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week4.52%，并再创历史新高。本周组合及截至北京时间4month15day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).




commodity market


Trading preference – 本周我们维持黄金（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡偏多结构。长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，随着新冠疫情肆虐全球经济，并引发大规模刺激计划出台，投资者纷纷涌入黄金避险。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏强结构。
油价方面，欧佩克+已达成减产协议，这对油价形成一定利多。但鉴于疫情依旧严峻，经济复苏可能非常缓慢，投资者押注全球产油国新达成的创纪录减产协议，难以抵消新冠疫情造成的燃料需求破坏，油价下行。总的来看，我们认为这确实为未来提供了一个价格“底部”。技术上，支撑位在20附近，压力位在27Near.




stock market indexprospect

股指方面，因有迹象显示冠状病毒疫情正在平稳或缓和，恒指周二最终收涨0.56%。盘面上，中资券商股午后飙升，在线教育股与医疗设备股走高。考虑到疫情的影响，建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。



abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.

Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/Mei can cash in some profits.



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