MBG Markets:黄金飙升至七年高位，欧系货币短线或受提振

Market Focus

Trading preference – This week is relatively weak compared to Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）,And believe that the Australia recommended last week/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）It is close to a high level and can partially realize profits.
欧洲方面，虽然欧盟主要成员国终于就抗击疫情的经济支持方案达成协议，欧元短期也因此而获得了一定提振。但考虑到欧元区经济前景依然黯淡，因此，本周我们维持欧元为先升后跌的结构，技术上，支撑1.0850Pressure1.1000。
英国方面，因英国首相约翰逊出院的消息提振英镑一度上涨0.7%。另外，我们认为随着美元流动性逐步得到解决，加上英国庞大的金融业在一定程度上将利好英镑。技术上，支撑1.2400Pressure1.2600。

商品货币方面，随着疫情的缓解，叠加全球股市上涨，澳元、纽元领涨，但我们认为短期已经接近高位，可以兑现部分利润。技术上，短期澳/beautiful0.6400, New/beautiful0.6200将面临一定压力。

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

避险货币方面，短期来看美元承压，主要是因美联储通过一系列措施向金融体系注入大量美元，以解决部分由美元需求造成的流动性紧缩问题。因此，我们预计美元将再次陷入震荡，技术上，关注98.5Nearby support.
beautiful/日短期跌幅较大，我们认为主要是受到gold上涨影响。我们还是保持原来的观点，美/日短期或将继续保持弱势。

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week4.52%，并再创历史新高。本周组合及截至北京时间4month14day07:03The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).




commodity market

Trading preference – 本周我们维持黄金（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡偏多结构。长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，也因投资者担心新冠疫情对全球经济和美国企业盈利的打击，纷纷入手黄金避险。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏强结构。
油价方面，虽然欧佩克+已达成减产协议，但也因冠状病毒疫情冲击需求。中期我们认为，这对油价形成一定利多。但基于减产能否执行到位以及全球需求疲弱的大环境，油价短期恐怕无法迎来大幅反弹。技术上，支撑位在20附近，压力位在27Near.





stock market indexprospect

股指方面，受复活节假期影响，周一香港证券交易所休市一日。考虑到近期各国央行开启大水漫灌模式，再加上欧洲开始逐步解封，这对股市形成了一定利多，但短期财报季的来临，考虑到疫情的影响，建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。



abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.

Australia/United States, New Zealand/Mei can cash in some profits.



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