MBG Markets:美元再度走强，欧元空头强劲

Market Focus

Trading preference – 本周相对较为看好澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）和看弱欧/Beauty（EURUSD）。昨日欧元因欧元区制造业数据疲软而受到拖累，考虑到肺炎疫情影响，我们认为欧元区经济陷入衰退是大概率事情，因此，我们维持欧元中期承压。技术上， 下方短期可关注1.0900Support.
英国方面，就目前来看，英镑的回落主要还是由于英国制造业数据发布以后短线卖盘给英镑带来压力。同样考虑到疫情影响，经济前景的变差我们认为恐将中期施压英镑。技术上，1.2400以上压力较大，下方短线关注1.2200Support.

商品货币方面，昨日因疫情发展和制造业数据推动避险，商品货币澳元、加元跌幅居前。另外，从澳联储会议纪来看，澳大利亚或许已经出现了实质性的萎缩，叠加全球贸易遭遇重创，短期商品货币承压。但鉴于中国制造业数据的回升，我们认为接下来澳元的反弹步伐将取决于中国经济的复苏速度。技术上，短期澳/beautiful0.6200、纽/beautiful0.6050将面临压力，不过，我们认为调整以后还有上升空间。

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

避险货币方面，从周三美国公布的3monthADP数据来看录得-2.7万人，好于预期值的-15万人；但我们认为数据并没有反映疫情对整体就业情况的全面影响。另外，美国3月制造业活动萎缩幅度小于预期，这都短线支撑了美元。考虑避险和对现金的急切需求，我们认为DXYstay98.5以下都是比较好支撑。
我们认为未来随着美元流动性问题得到解决，美/日还有回落预期，短期因美元相对较为强势而缩减其跌幅。我们维持原来的预判，美/日在短暂修整以后还将面临回调。

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week3.16%This week's combination and as of Beijing time4month2day07:01The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).





commodity market

Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。长期来看，全球低利率为黄金提供了支撑。另外，全球各国央行都在扩张资产负债表，并准备进一步放宽政策，以减轻疫情影响；因此，我们认为实际利率将在一段时间内保持在深度负值区域，这样的背景仍有利于黄金投资。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏强结构，短期由于升幅较大有修正。
油价方面，从昨日公布的EIA库存数据来看增加1383.3万桶，但油价并没有下跌，这主要还是因美国和俄罗斯在不断释放利好信息。因此，我们维持油价是一个中期偏弱的结构，不过近期由于空头过于强势，谨慎多头反扑形成技术性反弹。





stock market indexprospect

股指方面，美国新冠肺炎死亡病例数持续上升，再加上经济数据疲软，投资者忧虑加重。恒指周三低开超1%，午后持续下挫，盘中跌超2%，收盘跌2.19%。盘面上，汽车、体育用品跌幅居前，航空物流、半导体板块走强。考虑到全球市场依然疲弱，建议近期投资者以防御为主。技术形态上，24000It's a lot of pressure, below21500是短期支撑。



abstract

CFTC资金流数据显示，澳元空头处于极值，因此，我们认为短期随着资金流入并支持回涨。另外，欧元的多头也处于极值。

Europe/美可继续持有。



Economic Calendar



Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.
The above content is general information and does not take into account your investment objectives, financial condition, or other needs; It does not constitute any invitation to invest or buy or sell financial products. Before you make an investment decision,MBG MarketsWe suggest that you seek independent financial advice. Meanwhile,MBG MarketsWe shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses arising from the use of this review/Liability or obligation resulting from or damage.

You are making a decision to selectMBG MarketsPlease read carefully before providing the financial productsMBG MarketsAnd confirm full understanding of the transaction in accordance with the terms and conditions and product disclosure statementMBG MarketsRisks related to financial products.