MBG Markets：本周非农来袭，解码汇市交易机会紧缺仍存

Market Focus

Trading preference – 本周相对较为看好澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）和看弱欧/Beauty（EURUSD）。上周五特朗普正式签署2万亿美元经济刺激法案，美元承压，欧元也因此受到提振。不过，考虑到欧元区疫情仍未出现明显好转，叠加，本周德国将公布失业人数，恐大幅下降，欧元恐将受到拖累。技术上，短期欧/美技术性修复接近尾声， upper1.1000将面临较大压力，可部分获利出局。
英国方面，近期英国就疫情采取的封锁措施触发了英镑反弹，不过，投资者仍需留意脱欧进程、以及针对疫情而采取的经济计划，这也是影响英镑未来走势的几个要点。技术上，1.2400以上将面临较大压力。

商品货币方面，随着全球经济刺激的扩大，市场情绪改善，澳元、纽元逐步反弹。但，随着全球新冠肺确诊人数超过70万人，澳元、纽元的反弹力度也受到了一定限制。技术上，短期澳/beautiful0.6200、纽/beautiful0.6050将面临压力，不过，本周我们认为调整以后还有上升空间。

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

避险货币方面，上周五特朗普正式签署2万亿美元经济刺激法案，用于应对新冠肺炎疫情对美国经济的冲击。叠加初请失业金人数升至328.3万人，美元回落。本周重中之重就是本周五的美国非农就业数据。由于疫情的影响，目前市场普遍预期是美国非农就业人口将减少10万人。但考虑避险和对现金的急切需求，我们认为美元恐难有较大幅回落，DXY下方可关注98Support.
为应对新冠肺炎疫情对日本经济的冲击，日本政府28日宣布，将推出规模空前的经济刺激计划。另外，随着美元走弱，日元反弹，其实我们早有预期。因此，我们维持原来的预判，认为美/日短期将面临回调。

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week3.16%This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month30day07:10The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).




commodity market

Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。长期来看，全球低利率和持续的流动性注入为贵金属提供了上涨的条件，但短期风险偏好的上升给黄金带来了压力。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡结构。
油价方面，虽然经济刺激计划和股票市场的上涨，使得市场风险偏好情绪继续回暖。但由于欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国未能达成共识，从4month1日开始，这些国家将不再受到生产上限或减产的约束。需求忧虑盖过了刺激效果，因此，我们维持油价是一个中期偏弱的结构。




stock market indexprospect

股指方面，市场预期美国众议院表决将通过2万亿美元的经济刺激法案，上周五港股高开高走。恒指午后涨幅进一步收窄，最终收涨0.56%。盘面上，体育用品股和内房股走高，华为概念股和苹果概念股走低。考虑到全球市场依然疲弱，建议近期投资者以防御为主。技术形态上，24000It's a lot of pressure, below21500是短期支撑。



abstract

CFTC资金流数据显示，澳元空头处于极值，因此，我们认为短期随着资金流入并支持回涨。另外，欧元的多头也处于极值。

Europe/美、镑/美、美/瑞、美/加可获利出局。



Economic Calendar






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