MEXDaily Express | 就业市场亮起红灯，解码汇市投资逻辑

View All · Published on 2020-3-27 10:45:45

Register now, make more friends, enjoy more functions, and let you play in the community easily.

You need Sign in Can be downloaded or viewed without an account?Register Now

x

Focus of foreign exchange market
Trading preference – 本周相对较为看好澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）和纽/Beauty（NZDUSD）。美国初请失业金人数升至328.3万人，市场继续施加压美元，另外，欧洲扩大经济刺激计划，提振了欧元。不过，我们认为后期欧元想要继续走高还需要看到疫情的好转。短期欧/美技术性修复接近尾声， upper1.1000将面临较大压力，可部分获利出局。
On the UK side,周四晚间，英国央行宣布维持利率不变，此外维持6450亿英镑债券购买规模不变。这和我们昨天的预测较为吻合。另外，英国就疫情采取的封锁措施也触发英镑反弹。随着市场情绪的改善，我们认为英镑可能进一步上扬。技术上，1.2400以上将面临较大压力。
In terms of commodity currency,

随着全球股市的上涨，市场情绪改善，叠加美元指数的逐步走低，澳元、纽元逐步反弹。但，考虑到澳大利亚将从本周开始实施更多的全面停运，这将进一步减少经济活动。因此，澳元后续反弹的力度或许会受到一定的限制。技术上，澳

/
beautiful
0.6200
、纽
/
beautiful
0.6050
短期将面临压力。

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
In terms of safe haven currencies,beautiful2万亿美元经济刺激提案基本上板上钉钉，加上初请失业金人数升至328.3万人，美元回落。但考虑避险和对现金的急切需求，我们认为美元恐难有较大幅回落，DXY下方可关注98.5Support.
随着美元走弱，日元反弹，其实我们早有预期。因此，我们维持原来的预判，认为美/日短期将面临回调。
MEXQuantitative strategy
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.组合净值上周下跌2.00%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month27day07:06The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
commodity market

Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations.长期来看，全球低利率和持续的流动性注入为贵金属提供了上涨的条件。另外，G20峰会显示，二十国集团将启动总价值5万亿美元的经济计划也刺激了黄金需求。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏多结构，但短期升幅过大有修整预期。
In terms of oil prices,虽然经济刺激计划和股票市场的上涨，使得市场风险偏好情绪继续回暖。但因需求忧虑盖过了刺激效果，因此，我们维持油价是一个中期偏弱短期有反弹的结构。
stock market indexprospect
股指方面，市场憧憬全球将有更多经济刺激措施，港股周四高开，午后震荡走低，尾盘加速下行，最终收跌0.74%。盘面上，石油板块跌幅居前，医疗保健股和阿里概念股强势收涨。
考虑到全球市场依然疲弱，建议近期投资者以防御为主。技术形态上，24000It's a lot of pressure, below21500是短期支撑。
abstract

CFTC资金流数据显示，澳元、纽元净空头处极值，因此，我们认为短期随着资金流入并支持回涨。
Australia/美、纽/美、美/日、美/瑞、美/加可部分获利出局。
Economic Calendar