MBG MarketsEvening technical report 2020-03-13

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference - - -This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。
[/li][li]On the Eurozone front,Yesterday, the European Central Bank did not lower interest rates as expected by the market and only introduced additional measures1200A bond purchase of billions of euros, this move is beneficial for the euro,If the intraday rise of the US dollar index can converge, the euro will take this opportunity to rebound and digest this factor.
[/li]

[li]On the UK side,Previously, the Bank of England urgently lowered interest rates50Furthermore, from Carney's statement, it is suggested that there is still a possibility of further interest rate cuts in the UK, which has weakened the overall strength of the pound.But beware of a rebound in the pound after yesterday's oversold.
[/li]

[li]In terms of commodity currency,The low oil prices have led to sustained weakness in the Canadian dollar, coupled with a relatively pessimistic overall commodity market, so the Canadian dollar has not rebounded. In the medium term, the Canadian dollar may remain pessimistic,But due to recent developments in the United States and Canada（USD/CAD）Although there is an upward trend, the structure is barely structured, and we still tend to have prices falling. In the short term, we can bear the market lightly, but in the future, we will have more options;Due to the spread of global panic, commodities were generally sold off, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars were unable to build a rebound structure and suffered a heavy decline. As a result, our short orders have far exceeded our targets, and we expect there is still a risk of further decline in the short term.
[/li]

[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,At present, the market expects that the Bank of Japan may increase monetary stimulus next week, which may lead to a slight decline in the yen. Yesterday, we suggested going long104.5Just leave the market. If there are no US or Japanese positions on the market, the hourly line can close at the purple trend line, and then the appropriate position can intervene in long positions. Look up61.8%, press1.5：1The above profit and loss ratio appears on the market。
[/li]

commodity market

[li]Trading preference –This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Vibration andcrude oil（WTI）The viewpoint of oscillation bias.The risk aversion sentiment has established an overall bullish pattern for gold, but the lack of market liquidity and high profit taking will limit the short-term increase in gold prices,This week, we have repeatedly emphasized the view of falling short. As of now, the gold price has exceeded our short target. Next, we will mainly focus on this week's closing situation to arrange next week's plan, with light positions being the main focus of intraday operations.
[/li][li]In terms of oil prices, the price war is still ongoing but there are no new explosive events in the short term. The previous sharp drop in oil prices has already digested the bearish sentiment of the first stage, resulting in an overall bearish outlook but facing demand for rebound correction。
[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTCCapital flow data supports beauty/Rui rebounded.
[/li]

[li]In recent days, except for the US, Canada, and crude oil, both direct currency and gold have exceeded their profit targets. Traders should timely cash in on profits and focus on risk control during Black Friday.
[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1220	105.00	1.2676	1.3750	0.6310	0.6100
midline	1.1325	108.00	1.2720	1.3670	0.6939	0.6006

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	34	1,565
midline	31	1,587

Economic Calendar