Industrial Investment: The tourism ban exacerbates demand concerns, and oil prices fell more than Thursday8%

Industrial Investment: The tourism ban exacerbates demand concerns, and oil prices fell more than Thursday8%
2020year3month13day
International oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, taking back the gains from earlier this week, with US oil testing at one point30US dollar level, oil distribution approaching32Meiyou, due to global travel bans, has caused an already sluggish marketcrude oilThe demand outlook is further bleak, while the coronavirus continues to spread globally, continuing to dampen market sentiment. The sharp drop in US stocks has also led to the sell-off of risky assets such as crude oil. In additionOPEC+The price war waged by oil producing countries to compete for market share has also increased the downward pressure on oil prices. However, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have provided some support for oil prices. As of the close of trading in the United StatesWTIcrude oil4monthfuturesClosing down2.08USD, or6.27%Report31.08dollar/Bucket, highest reach33.52dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to30.01dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil5Monthly futures closed lower3.09USD, or8.64%Report32.69dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray36.43dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to32.47dollar/Bucket.
At the World Health Organization(WHO)After categorizing this epidemic as a global pandemic, US President Trump announced on Thursday that the future30One of the measures to prevent the spread of the epidemic is to prohibit passengers from Europe from entering the country. This move exacerbates market concerns about the outlook for crude oil demand.
The Italian civil defense department announced on Thursday that the total number of confirmed coronavirus infections in the country has increased from Wednesday's12462People rise to15113People, the number of deaths has increased23%, reaching1016People. Meanwhile, the Chief Scientific Advisor of the UK governmentPatrick VallanceThey have raised the risk level of the coronavirus to the highest level. According to Reuters,Vallancesay:Currently, there are approximately590Confirmed cases, including20Multiple patients are staying in the intensive care unit. If you calculate what this means from the total number, you will find that there is currently a higher likelihood of5000reach10000Human infection. "
Meanwhile, the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention released a report on Friday stating that South Korea has confirmed110A new case of coronavirus infection, compared to Thursday's114The number of cases has decreased, and the current total is7979Example:. Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Honduras have all taken stricter measures to control the epidemic. Argentina announced the cancellation of visa issuance to passengers and the suspension of flights from the most severely affected countries. Argentina reported31For example, compared to the previous day's21There has been an increase in examples, among which1Patient died. Meanwhile, Walter-Disney Company(Walt Disney Co.)On Thursday, the company announced that due to the virus, it will close all theme parks in California and Florida, as well as resorts in Paris, until the end of this month. ContinuingNBAAfter announcing the suspension, the National Hockey League of the United States(NHL)It has been paused2019-2020Season.
A large influx of cheap supplies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has intensified price pressures in the market. These two Gulf Arab oil producing countries are continuously increasing their production in a price war with Russia. UAE National Oil Company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company(ADNOC)Previously released a statement stating that it would4The monthly crude oil production has increased to40010000 barrels/Day or more, and we will accelerate the increase of production capacity to50010000 barrels/Plan for the day. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, announced that it will4Monthly output will decrease from120010000 barrels/Day raised to130010000 barrels/Day. And Russia is also unwilling to be outdone, claiming to have the ability to increase daily production by as much as possible in a relatively short period of time50Ten thousand barrels. According to Reuters, the Kremlin has released its latest statement, stating that it has not yet engaged with Saudi Arabia orOPECA plan to engage on the oil issue.
However, the geopolitical tensions surrounding Iraq provide some support for crude oil prices. Between two US citizens(One of them is from the UK)After the attack, the US military launched a crackdown on Iranian backed Iraqi militias and a more severe crackdown on Hezbollah in Iraq. This indicates that armed groups supported by the United States, Iran, and Tehran are once again embarking on a path of re confrontation within Iraq.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan passed5000The unexpected injection of liquidity into the billion yen repurchase action may also support prices. In addition, there are speculations that the talks between Trump and the Saudi prince may help prevent a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and Russia is prepared to participate3month18Daily heldOPEC+The meeting has added some confidence to the crude oil market.
The market is now looking forward to the latest data from Baker Hughes's US oil drilling platform(by3month6During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased4Seat to682seat)Headlines related to the virus will continue to play a crucial role.
USD Index
The US dollar index slightly retreated to96.041Strong upward trend after reaching a certain level, breaking through one after another97and98Two major psychological barriers, reaching a two-week high98.273Due to Trump's failure to establish market confidence, the US stock market once again triggered a circuit breaker mechanism, intensifying panic surrounding the coronavirus, and funds from around the world flocked to the safe haven currency, the US dollar. However, the lower US bond yields weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar and dragged down some of the gains in the US dollar index.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,2Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year decrease1.3%Below1Of the month2.1%Also lower than market expectations1.8%. Contemporaneous corePPIThe year-on-year growth rate has increased from last month's1.7%Slow down to1.4%, month on month decrease0.3%。
The New York Federal Reserve announced on Thursday that it will launch a1.5A trillion dollar new repurchase operation and the start of purchasing a series of annual US bonds as part of monthly bond purchases. The Federal Reserve will conduct a meeting on Thursday5000A three-month repurchase operation of billions of dollars. It will be held again on Friday5000One month repurchase and5000Three month repurchase operation of billions of dollars. This is the third time this week that the Federal Reserve has announced a significant increase in repurchase support, indicating that it is taking aggressive measures to inject more liquidity into the banking system as the market begins to show signs of pressure.
Due to President Trump's speech and the Federal Reserve's failure to dispel concerns about the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus, the US stock market plummeted again on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down9.99%, from1987The largest decline since Black Monday this year. S&P500Index decline9.5%, also1987The worst performance day since the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed lower9.4%。
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: The Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are closely following the downward trend;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
4Hour chart: Poly Plus channel flattens, oil prices follow the trend below;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators are attempting to decline.
1Hour chart: The Poly Plus channel is flattening out, and oil prices are hovering near the mid rail;14and20The hourly moving average remains unchanged;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days29.50-33.50Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above3month13Daily high point31.60After breaking through, we will explore further3month11Daily low point32.55And then3month12Daily high point33.50and3month10Daily high point35.00, and3month11Daily high point36.30and2016year4month5Daily high point36.75;And the following supports attention3month12Daily low point30.00Falling below will lead to exploration2016year1month22Daily low point29.50And then2016year1month15Daily low point29.10and28.00Psychological barriers, and3month9day27.30and2016year1month20Daily low point26.20。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices closely following the downward trend development;14and20Daily moving average bearish;After adjusting for random indicators, it fell.
4Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are approaching a downward trend;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators continue to decline in oversold areas.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are developing above the downward trend;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days31.25-35.30Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above3month10Daily low point33.50Breakthrough will be explored and followed3month11Daily low point35.30And then3month12High point36.45and2016year2month26Daily high point37.00, and2016year4month1Daily low point38.50and3month11Daily high point39.60;And the following supports attention3month12Daily low point32.45Falling below will lead to exploration2016year2month17Daily low point31.80And then3month9Daily low point31.25and2016year2month10Daily low point30.30, and2016year1month15Daily low point29.20and2016year1month18Daily low point28.00。
Follow on Friday:
U.S.A2Monthly Import Price Index
U.S.A3Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
Weekly oil drilling in Baker Hughes, USA