MEXDaily Technical Report - Today's Risk in European Bank Resolutions But in the past two days, we need to pay attention to the turning points of the overall market

MEX

prospect

goldThis week, we emphasized that the market may use the expectation of economic stimulus measures from various countries as an excuse, combined with factors such as gold asset selling and monetization caused by stock market rescue, and short-term high profit taking, to bring about a downward opportunity for gold prices. Currently, there is still a slight room for this decline to continue. But traders need to recognize that the current global crisis is surging, and the gold market has become a safe haven. Therefore, whether this decline can continue remains to be tested. Today and tomorrow may usher in an important turning point, which will determine whether the gold price will end its decline and rise again, or further open up downward space.

crude oilOn the one hand, Saudi Arabia continues to be tough, and Russia's tone continues to soften. However, in fact, Russia's financial preparation for dealing with low oil prices is not lower than Saudi Arabia's. Russia has no absolute reason to be afraid of Saudi Arabia, but rather the US shale oil is in danger. We still believe that this is an invisible play played by Russia to undermine US oil and will continue to play. Therefore, oil prices are unlikely to have a spring in the short term, and overall operations will continue to be bearish. Only short-term attention is needed31The turning point of the US dollar will determine whether oil prices will decline here or continue to rebound before falling again

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index continued to rebound as expected yesterday, mainly due to market expectations for US economic stimulus measures. However, it should be emphasized that these measures cannot truly stimulate the economy, so this is still just an excuse for the market to breathe a sigh of relief and is difficult to sustain. The epidemic has become increasingly severe in the US, and attention should be paid to whether the US dollar has ended its rebound in the past two days; The biggest focus today is on the decision of the European Central Bank, although the market has already priced the ECB's interest rate cut10At present, there is still controversy in the market over the actual plan of the resolution, but it is expected that the European Central Bank will take action, so the short-term decline of the euro is highly likely. However, the future trend needs to wait until the resolution is implemented, and traders need to control risks; Other non US currencies have fallen as expected in the past two days, with traders mainly focusing on cashing in profits and waiting for a turning point in the future market.

MEX

viewpoint

XAUUSD(

gold)

Data source:MEX Markets

brace1 : 1624  brace2: 1617.5  brace3:1610  

resistance1 : 1651  resistance2: 1671

Hedging will overall keep the market enthusiastic about the upward trend of gold, but currently the biggest risk for gold is the potential selling risk caused by the lack of liquidity in the market; At the same time, the US dollar is rebounding due to expectations of US economic stimulus policies, and it is not ruled out that gold prices will be adjusted to prepare for a subsequent rebound.

Technically, gold prices are as expected starting from MondayABCThe downward trend, the small target position has been completed, and traders can first make appropriate profit reduction.AB=CStructural support1610Fibonacci61.8%Supported on1617This is a small level possible testing point, but1624As a weekly closing point, it will determine whether the market will enter a larger level of decline or pull up again.

USOUSD

(Meiyou)futures）

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 31.0  brace2 : 28.0
resistance1：38.8  resistance2：44.0
Due to the intervention of various forces, there are signs of easing in the oil price war in the short term, which provides a breathing space for oil prices after a huge decline. However, the relevant events have not yet ended, and it is expected that oil prices will decline again once the market recognizes that the situation cannot be alleviated in the short term.
Technically, traders can use spatial measurement structures as a reference for resistance support, and their current focus is on31If the price is sustained, there is still momentum for further rebound in the US dollar, but if it falls below again, it may be retested28The US dollar may even continue to face downside risks.

EURUSD (

EUR/USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.1230  brace2:1.1145  brace3:1.1058  
resistance1：1.1357  resistance2:1.1513   
The Eurozone's own data is weak, and the recent rise of the euro is mainly due to the decline of the US dollar index. Therefore, the trend of the euro largely depends on the market's short-term confidence in the US dollar; Currently, the market has already lowered interest rates against the European Central Bank10The expectation of one basis point has been digested, and if the European Central Bank's easing falls short of expectations, it may limit the short-term rise of the euro.
Technically, the euro is temporarily viewed through the Elliott wave theory channel, and yesterday's price was supported by the blue channel's downward trend as expectedABCThe downward trend continues as expected, and we will continue to pay attention to it in the futureCThe downward trend is expected to follow the Fibonacci pullback line and timely realize the corresponding profit margins.

GBPUSD

(GBP USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.2712  
resistance1: 1.2898  resistance2:1.2957   
From the overall situation of the epidemic, it is relatively good for the UK to be below control in Europe and America. Among the more than a thousand confirmed cases in Germany, France, and Italy, the UK only has over 300 cases. However, yesterday's diagnosis by the UK Minister of Health may have raised further concerns in the market. Coupled with yesterday's emergency interest rate cut by the Bank of England, the pound has weakened in the short term.
Technically, the pound is currently in a downward trend within the channel, and yesterday its price successfully fell below the expansion line61.8%Support, we will continue to move towards100%Location testing.

USDJPY

(USD to JPY)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1:103.7  brace2：101.1
resistance1：106.6  resistance2:108.0
Due to Japan's own severe epidemic, the market is concerned that the Japanese economy will fall into a technical recession, so if the yen, as a safe haven asset, is subjected to stronger pressure in the rebound of the US dollar index.
Technically, the United States and Japan have already broken the previous structure of channel breaking and subsequent decline, which needs to be seen from the perspective of2month10The rebound in the downward trend from the beginning of the day will continue to be monitored within the day23.6%If supported, there is hope for further testing in the future61.8%Location.

AUDUSD

(AUD to USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 0.6435
resistance1：0.6566 resistance2 : 0.6644  
At present, commodity currencies are still severely suppressed by the epidemic, and the rebound of the US dollar index has put greater pressure on non US currencies; We only hope that China's economic recovery can bring action to the Australian dollar.
The sharp decline in technology last Monday broke the rebound structure of the Australian dollar last week, and as a result, the market is undergoing a new round of pattern construction as scheduled. Those who follow short positions in the past two days should timely cash in profits.0.6435The vicinity is an important focus, and only when it officially stabilizes above this point can there be hope of building a rebound structure, otherwise the Australian dollar may face a new round of decline.

NZDUSD

(NZD to USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
resistance1 : 0.6342  resistance2:0.6447     
brace2 : 0.6170  
At present, commodity currencies are still severely suppressed by the epidemic, and the rebound of the US dollar index has put greater pressure on non US currencies; We only hope that China's economic recovery can bring action to the New Zealand dollar.
The sharp decline in technology last Monday broke the rebound structure of the New Zealand dollar last week, and as a result, the market is undergoing a new round of pattern construction as scheduled. Those who follow short positions in the past two days should timely cash in profits.0.6170The vicinity is an important focus, and only when it officially stabilizes above this point can there be hope of building a rebound structure, otherwise the New Zealand dollar may face a new round of decline.

USDCAD

(USD to CAD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.3575  
resistance2：1.3806   
Although oil prices have slightly rebounded recently, the Canadian dollar has struggled to rebound due to the country's economic difficulties, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar index, causing the Canadian dollar to continue to passively depreciate.
Technically, the expansion line structure in which the US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar at the beginning of this year161.8%Suppression is an important turning point. If not broken, there will still be hope for a decline, but if broken, there will be further upward testing2016Annual high point.

USDCHF(

USD to Swiss Franc)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9188   
resistance1：0.9438  resistance2:0.9595
Against the backdrop of the continued weakness of the US dollar index, the safe haven function of the Swiss franc has returned, and this factor will still lead to the appreciation of the Swiss franc as a whole; But in the short term, the US dollar may face a rebound correction that may limit the appreciation potential of the Swiss franc.
Technically, the US dollar against Swiss franc has been successfully tested2019year12Monthly expansion line161.8%Supporting and rebounding may indicate a temporary suspension of the downward trend. The next step is to see the technical correction of the previous decline in the market. In the future, the overall bullish target is to suppress the split line, but attention should also be paid to the changes in the turning range.

HK50(

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：24785 brace2:23688  
resistance1：26025
Affected by the ongoing pandemic and fluctuating global stock markets, Hong Kong stocks also experience relatively volatile market trends. Currently, countries around the world are implementing various economic stimulus measures, and there is still expected positive news in the market. However, whether there is a substantial positive news will determine whether the stock market can truly win a turning point. Therefore, the current situation still leans towards an uncertain or pessimistic pattern.
The rebound in the downward trend of technology, with prices currently in a state of decline2019year1month20RecentlyABCIn the downward trend, the price downward test is completed on MondayAB=CDThe structure shows signs of stopping the decline, and we will continue to focus on the expansion line in the future61.8%-100%The directional choice between them, and then choose to break through and follow up.

Focus on financial information/event

Note: ★ represents importance
18：00  eurozone1Monthly industrial output rate   ★★★★
20：30  U.S.A2monthPPIMonthly rate    ★★★★
         From the United States to3month7Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people)   ★★★★★
         Eurozone to3month12Main refinancing rates of the European Central Bank in Japan   ★★★★★
20：45  The European Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolutions    ★★★★★
21：30  European Central Bank President Lagarde Holds a Press Conference    ★★★★★
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