MBG Markets：OPEC+Negotiations have broken down, and oil prices have plummeted by over 20% at the opening

Market Focus

Trading preference – OPEC+The breakdown of the negotiations, coupled with the continued outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States, led to a sharp drop of more than 20% in oil prices at the opening. At the same time, risk aversion was also reflected in the stock and bond markets. This morning, stock markets across AsiafuturesA general sharp decline4%The 10-year interest rate in the United States has also continued to decline to0.5Horizontal. Funds flowed into safe haven currencies, causing the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to rise, while the Canadian dollar was sold off due to a sharp drop in oil prices. The trading preference for this morning's Asian session is to buy the US at a low price/day (USDJPY) And beauty/Rui (USDCHF) At the same time, selling at a high level in the United States/plus(USDCAD) 。
Although last week's non-agricultural data exceeded market expectations as our views did, the data did not reflect the impact of COVID-19 on the United States. Recently, the market will still be dominated by risk aversion. This Thursday, the European Central Bank(ECB) We believe that there will be a lower chance of following the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut, which is beneficial for Europe/beautiful (EURUSD) Bringing a trend of first rising and then falling, and expecting to sell at high levels.
In terms of commodity currency, the Canadian dollar is clearly under pressure, and China's weekend export drop has also dragged down the Australian and New Zealand dollars. However, we believe that the Asian period is still not the time to buy the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.

MBGQuantitative strategy2019Year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy still outperforms the target significantly. The net asset value of the portfolio rebounded from a historical high last week1.10%This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month9day08:50The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).






abstract

CFTCCapital flow data supports beauty/Rui rebounded.

beautiful/Japan and Australia/The US average has reached the target price, and investors can first cash in some profits.



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