Outlook for Industrial Investment this week: Be vigilant about correcting the market after the collapse of the foreign exchange market

Outlook for Industrial Investment this week: Be vigilant about correcting the market after the collapse of the foreign exchange market
2020year3month9day
The Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates last Tuesday50The market's fear of the global spread of the COVID-19 reached a climax at a base point. Even the US non farm performance on Friday was exceptionally good, it failed to calm the market. The US dollar index starts from98.00Directly falling through the front line96.00, with a decrease of1.89%Accumulated decline over two weeks3.62%. The performance of safe haven currencies is excellent, with the Japanese yen closing up nearly against the US dollar last week350Point increase3.47%Accumulated increase over two weeks6.94%;The Swiss franc rose against the US dollar3.86%Accumulated increase over two weeks5.33%;EUR/USD up3.04%Two weeks cumulative, last week5.07%。
Opening this week, subject toOPEC+Failure to reach an agreement on deepening production cuts and Saudi Arabia lowering official oil prices over the weekend to increase production beyond100010000 barrels/Affected by the news of the day, international oil prices fell more than30%, driving the entire financial market to crash. The US dollar index jumped short, opened low, and fell sharply, falling below once95.00The Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro fell sharply short and opened high, even the previously relatively stable Australian and New Zealand dollars were not spared, refreshing2009year2The lowest point since the beginning of the month.
After the release of extreme emotions, it is necessary to be vigilant about the possibility of correction in various capital markets this week. On the one hand, continue to pay attention to the relevant news of oil producing countries. On the other hand, the assessment of the global economic prospects of the COVID-19 epidemic will also be the top priority in the future. In addition, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision this week requires close attention. If the ECB further deepens negative interest rates, it may trigger market speculation that there will be more central bank interest rate cuts globally, which may ease the market sentiment of extreme panic last week. The pound may still emerge from an independent market trend as the market expects the UK to release a positive fiscal budget this week.
1、 Eurozone Q4GDPFinal value, Tuesday Beijing time18:00.
Under the pessimistic expectation of the market that COVID-19 will impact the global economy, any good data can hardly make the market happy. However, any bad data may aggravate the market's pessimism. Eurozone Q4GDPSlowing down, month on month growth0.1%, the previous value is growth0.3%Due to the contraction of France, the second largest economy in the eurozone0.1%The third largest economy, Italy, has contracted0.3%However, the largest economy, Germany, has stagnated in growth. Market expectations for the fourth quarter of the EurozoneGDPThe final value will not be adjusted and will increase year-on-year0.9%, month on month growth0.1%. Once the results are revised downwards, it may deepen market expectations for the ECB's interest rate cut this week, which is not conducive to the euro in the short term.
2、 britain1monthGDPWednesday Beijing time17:30.
Despite the rampant risk aversion in the market, the pound remains strong. On the one hand, thanks to the relatively optimistic information revealed in the first negotiations between the UK and the EU;On the other hand, after the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates, the new governor of the Bank of England, who will take office this month, stated that there is no rush to cut rates. However, if the UK economy performs poorly, market expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates soon this year will increase, which is not conducive to the rise of the pound. Market forecast for the UK1monthGDPThe monthly rate will decrease from0.3%Slow down to0.2%This is also the first election in the UK since the early electionGDPdata
3、 The UK government has announced2020Annual financial budget, Wednesday Beijing time19:30.
This is the first government budget of the UK after its official Brexit, which has attracted market attention.2In the month, former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Javid unexpectedly resigned, and Johnson appointed his confidant Sunak, raising suspicion in the market that the Johnson government may introduce more easing measures, greatly boosting bullish sentiment in the pound. The market expects Johnson to fulfill his campaign promise and implement expansionary fiscal policies, including investment1000Billion pounds will be used to renovate and upgrade outdated infrastructure, thereby unleashing the potential for economic development in the UK. If the UK budget allows the market to report, it will hit the pound hard, and vice versa.
4、 U.S.A2monthCPIWednesday Beijing time20:30.
North America entered daylight saving time this week, and it is important to note that the US data will be released one hour in advance. Last week, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates50This weakened the role of US economic data, because the market believed that the COVID-19 epidemic in the US was more serious than expected3There may be a need to lower interest rates at the monthly interest rate meeting50One basis point. Market expectation for the United States2monthCPIThe annual rate will decrease from2.5%Slide down to2.2%, CoreCPIThe annual rate will be maintained at2.3%unchanged.
5、 European Central Bank interest rate resolution, Thursday Beijing time20:45.
Unlike the United States and other major countries that have taken an active stance to reduce interest rates in response to the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy, the European Central Bank is hesitant because of its limited space to implement policies. ECB President Lagarde stated that she is closely monitoring the spread of the epidemic, but currently does not believe that monetary policy measures need to be taken. In addition, governments around the world have introduced fiscal stimulus policies to control the epidemic, which has also reduced the urgency of the European Central Bank's actions. However, the weak economy of the eurozone has raised market expectations for the ECB's interest rate cut, but it is believed that the ECB will need to reach the earliest4Month or6Take action only after the month. If the European Central Bank does not cut interest rates this time, it will probably boost the euro. Whether the European Central Bank will cut interest rates later depends on the changes of the COVID-19, and it may not necessarily cut interest rates. On the contrary, if the European Central Bank lowers interest rates10A basis point increase is expected to suppress the euro and may stimulate previous long covering, exacerbating the euro's decline.