Industrial Investment: The COVID-19 pandemic is becoming increasingly severe, and the rebound in oil prices is short-lived and short-lived

Industrial Investment: The COVID-19 pandemic is becoming increasingly severe, and the rebound in oil prices is short-lived and short-lived
2020year3month6day
althoughOPECAgree to further reduce production in the second quarter15010000 barrels/Day, this is from2008The largest reduction in production since the financial crisis, but due to increased market concerns about global economic growth caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus, as well as concerns aboutcrude oilThe risk of potential impact on product demand led to a continued decline in international oil prices on Thursday, marking the third consecutive trading day of decline. As of the close of trading in the United StatesWTIcrude oil4monthfuturesClosing down1.13USD, or2.39%Report46.20dollar/Bucket, highest reach47.55dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to45.63dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil5Monthly futures closed lower1.34USD, or2.60%Report50.13dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray51.99dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to49.68dollar/Bucket.
OPECMinisterial level officials issued a statement at a meeting in Vienna on Thursday, after intense consultations, recommending the proposed additional daily production cuts150The deadline for ten thousand barrels has been extended to2020At the end of the year, not earlier2020year6month30Day. At present, the market focus is shifting towards Russia's position. If the Russian side does not support this action, there will be no agreement. The UAE Minister of Energy stated that,OPECWill not take unilateral action.OPECSecretary General Balgin is being asked if it's notOPECOil producing countries do not agree to further reduce production,OPEC"I don't agree with your pessimistic view. There is no reason to doubt Russia's commitment," he saidOPECAllied countries Russia and Kazakhstan have stated that they have not yet agreed to further reduce production, which has increasedOPECComposed of alliesOPEC+The joint production reduction operation is at risk of failure. Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Nurlan?Nogaev stated that,OPECAnd nonOPECOil producing countries have not yet reached a consensus on the parameters for extending oil production agreements. since2016Since,OPEC+The joint production reduction plan supports crude oil prices.
As countries around the world extend quarantine and travel restrictions, investor concerns about the coronavirus disrupting the global economy continue to envelop global financial markets, leading to a decrease in demand for high-yield assets, which is also complemented by bearish sentiment surrounding this commodity. Given that the coronavirus poses an evolving risk to economic activity, the Federal Reserve urgently announced interest rate cuts on Tuesday50One basis point. This is from the Federal Reserve2008The first emergency interest rate cut since the financial crisis. However, this move failed to alleviate concerns in the stock market about the potential economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to the World Health Organization3month5Data released daily, as of Central European Time3month5day23COVID-19 was diagnosed globally98067Example: Death3281Example:. Overseas China78Accumulated confirmed cases in countries17637Example:. The number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus in South Korea has increased518For example, to achieve a total number of cases6824Example:. According to data from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of deaths has increased again7People, bringing the total number of deaths in South Korea to42People. Meanwhile, an official from the French Ministry of Health stated on Thursday that France added new items on Thursday423Confirmed cases of coronavirus, higher than Wednesday's138Example:. So far, the country has reported7Human death. Meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases in Germany has increased400For example, while previously it was349Example:. The number of confirmed cases in the UK has increased from the previous day85Example rises to115Example.
In addition, the New York Times of the United States summarized the confirmed cases of COVID-19 announced by the public health departments of each state. As of local time5In the afternoon, there were already163Confirmed cases, distributed in18Each state. Washington State Department of Public Health5A death case was announced on the day, bringing the total number of deaths in the United States to12Example:. In the event of coronavirus related deaths and53After confirming the case, California declared a state of emergency. As the state of New York increases its testing efforts, the number of infections in New York doubles overnight, reaching22People. In addition, the Governor of Maryland in the United StatesHoganDeclare a state of emergency in the state. Make investors further concerned about the possibility of an outbreak of the epidemic in the United States.
The market is now looking forward to itOPECThe key decision and the latest data from Baker Hughes's US oil drilling platform(by2month28During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased1Seat to678Seat, first recorded decrease in four weeks)Headlines related to the virus will continue to play a crucial role.
USD Index
The US dollar index rebounded slightly on Thursday morning97.398After reaching the level, it plummeted again and broke through97.00Psychological barrier, falling to1month6New low since the beginning of the day96.567Due to the poor performance of US economic data and the record low yield of US treasury bond bonds, the market bet that the Federal Reserve will be forced to further cut interest rates. Due to concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus, the United States has relaxed its monetary policy, jeopardizing the long-term rise of the US dollar. The money market expects the Federal Reserve to3month18-19Interest rates will be lowered again at the next meeting of the day25Basis points, and within4Interest rate reduction before the month50Basis points.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, unit labor costs in the United States increased in the fourth quarter0.9%The growth rate in the third quarter was1.4%Below market expectations1.4%. Non agricultural productivity increased during the same period1.2%, lower than analyst expectations1.4%. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose last week21.6Ten thousand people, with an average of four weeks209.75Up to 10000 people213.00People.
In addition, data released by the US Census Bureau shows that,1Monthly factory orders decreased month on month0.5%, i.e23USD100mn12Month is growth1.9%. This data exceeds market expectations0.1%The decline is even worse. This report also states:“1The new orders for durable goods in the manufacturing industry decreased for the second time in the past three months, with a decrease4One billion US dollars, or0.2%, to2460Billion US dollars, unchanged from the previously announced decline.
Dallas Fed Chairman Kaplan said on Thursday that it is now judged that the Fed is3It is still too early to take any action at the monthly meeting. We will focus on the development path of confirmed cases and incorporate this factor into our analysis3The meeting decision for the month. Now is not the time to make long-term predictions. Severe deterioration may last for a quarter or a month and a half.3The economic forecast released in the month will be in line with12The months are different. Central banks around the world will take different actions. When ammunition is limited, it is wise to use it earlier and bolder. Global economic growth will be affected in the first quarter, and global oil demand will experience negative growth. I hope the impact of the coronavirus will be a temporary event. Political factors have no impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision on Tuesday.
Daily Beijing Time21:30The United States will announce2The monthly non farm employment report will attract the attention of global participants.HYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts say that,2The recruitment for the month will not be affected by virus related factors. During the survey week at the Bureau of Labor Statistics(2month12day)The concern about the outbreak of the coronavirus is not as obvious. There is also no indication that the recruitment shock related to the virus has become a reality. expect2The number of employed people in the month will increase17.5Ten thousand people, last month was22.5Ten thousand, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at3.6%Meanwhile, the average hourly wage increased month on month0.3%The year-on-year growth rate will increase from last month's3.1%Slow down to3%。
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices follow the downward trend development;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil price impact on the lower track;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators have declined.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are closely following the downward trend;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days44.40-47.55Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above3month6Daily high point46.35After breaking through, we will explore further3month5Daily high point47.55And then3month4Daily high point48.40and49.00Psychological barriers, and2month25Daily low point49.70and2month26Daily high point50.40;And the following supports attention45.00Psychological barrier, falling below will lead to further exploration44.00Psychological barriers, followed by3month2Daily low point43.50, and43.00Psychological barriers and2018year12month26Daily low point42.80。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices follow the downward trend development;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices closely following the downward trend development;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators have declined.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are closely following the downward trend;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators fluctuate and fall in oversold areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days48.60-51.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above3month6Daily high point50.40Breakthrough will be explored3month4Daily low point51.00And then3month5Daily high point52.00and3month4Daily high point53.00, and3month3Daily high point53.85and2month12Daily low point54.35;And the following supports attention2month28Daily low point48.90Falling below will lead to exploration2017year7month19Daily low point48.60And then2017year7month14Daily low point48.10, and2017year7month6Daily low point47.75and2017year7month13Daily low point47.15。
Follow on Friday:
U.S.A2Monthly Nonfarm Employment Report
U.S.A1Monthly trade account
U.S.A1Monthly wholesale sales
OPEC+Ministerial Conference of Oil Producing Countries
Number of Baker Hughes oil drilling platforms in the United States
Chicago Fed Chairman Evans delivers a speech
St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad delivers a speech
New York Fed Chairman Williams delivers a speech
Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren delivers a speech