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[paragraph] crude oilMessage surface:
beautifulgold周三,截止收盘,纽约商品交易所黄金futuresThe most active market trading4Monthly gold futures price4日比前一交易日下跌1.4US dollars, closing at per ounce1643USD, with a decline of0.09%。Beijing Time3month3日晚间,美联储盘中宣布降息50个基点,联邦基金利率目标降至1.0%~1.25%,但降息的决定并未能提振美国股市,隔夜美股三大stock market index集体大幅收跌,其中,道指收跌逾780点,盘中一度跌近千点,跌幅2.94%。U.S.A10年期国债收益率跳升后回落,美元显著走弱,COMEX黄金价格上涨超3%。分析师指出,央行降息潮再起,或将支撑金价进一步上行。往前看,预计其他央行或将跟进降息,持续扩散的负利率环境或将支撑金价进一步上行。此外,市场预期美联储在年内仍将进一步降息,美债实际利率进一步走低,预计SPDRgoldETF或将进一步增持。因美联储临时会议降息,金价开启长周期上行。公共卫生安全事件在海外持续蔓延,这将拖累经济增长前景。3month3日美联储召开临时会议降息50个基点,流动性宽松超市场预期。短期看,避险情绪与美联储超预期降息托底金价,中长期全球低利率环境和美国经济增速下行压制美元指数,支撑金价上行,预计2020年金价稳健上涨。从技术面看,金价在本周一呈现希望之星,周二的暴涨成功突破希望之星顶部,这是一个上涨信号,暗示金价有望继续上行挑战1650美元,甚至是1700美元的高位。虽然黄金市场可能会出现回调,但是投资者应该将其视为潜在的购买机会,长期看金价仍处于上升趋势中。Technical aspects of crude oil:技术面,日线单边下跌后反弹;KDJ低位有金叉趋势,K线低位吞没看涨信号,短线有望延续反弹走势,10Daily moving average resistance49.10Nearby, you can also refer to2month4Daily low point49.31位置,若顶破该阻力,则增加短线看涨信号;布林线中轨和2month13Resistance at daily low points50.54Nearby;若进一步上破,则增加中线看涨信号。becauseMACD死叉信号仍在,若油价失守布林线下轨45.84附近支撑,则增加重回跌势的风险,近期低点支撑在43.32Nearby,2018年年底低点支撑在42.36Near.小时震荡;布林线收口后水平运行,留意布林线轨道46.84-48.50区域突破情况。at presentKDJ有死叉趋势,若下破46.84附近支撑,则增加短线看空信号;进一步支撑分别参考46.45、44.85and43.42Location.若油价能够守住46.84附近支撑,并顶破48.50附近阻力,则有望打开新的反弹空间。Overall反弹做空为主,可上方需要关注50Resistance, attention from below45Near.Crude Oil Strategy: crude oil(04Contract)建议交易策略:
1Suggest using49.3-49.5Consider short selling and stop losing near the US dollar0.5Points, target48.5- 47.5Nearby; 2Suggest using46.8-47.0Consider going long near the US dollar and stopping losses0.5Points, target48.0-49.5Around the US dollar. 2020year3month5日重要经济数据一览
① 09:45 美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话
② 16:30 OPEC convenes its first meeting178Session
③ 20:30 U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs
④ 21:30 From the United States to2month29Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week
⑤ 23:00 U.S.A1Monthly factory and durable goods order rate
⑥ 23:00 EU Chief Brexit negotiator Banier holds a press conference
⑦ 23:30 From the United States to2month28Day and WeekEIANatural gas inventory
⑧ The next day01:00 Bank of England Governor Carney delivers a speech
⑨ The next day01:45 Bank of Canada releases economic development report