Analysis article - Deepening production reduction10010000 barrels OPEC+Can the conference save oil prices

Since two weeksPreviously, we reminded oil prices to luremanyAfterwards, the market only took a little over a week to complete our expected bearish range, which can be said to be“comeAlso in a hurry”，howeverstayLast Friday, we reminded this weekoil pricePerhaps due to OPEC+ofThe production reduction meeting brought about a rebound,even if it isSo, MondayreboundThe strength still gave us a lot of surprises。And in today's worldepidemic situationAgainst the backdrop of global domination,furtherDeepen production reductionTo the endCan provideOil market injectionWhat kind of kinetic energy,before Can the rapidly forming decline be reduced on the supply side“Go in a hurry”，This has becomeWeThe current topic of greater concern.Taking this opportunitySincerelypublishPersonal opinions.

epidemic situationUnder the pattern How to clarify oil pricesThe logic of fluctuations
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this morningFederal Reserve of AustraliaInterest rate resolutionAnnounce interest rate cuts25individualBase point to0.5%Since the outbreak of the epidemic,GlobalMultiple central banks haveadoptLowering interest rates to cope withepidemic situationThe economic downturn risks brought about，Currently, the market is concerned about the Federal Reserve3monthThe expectation of interest rate cuts has also reached 100%. aboutLoose measures such as interest rate cuts, if placed inroutineEconomic weaknessunderInterest rate reductiontoFunds released by the markettakeTo a certain extentstimulateEconomic development；But the background is different this time,withTaking China as an example,epidemic situationburstperiod，Domestic ExclusionThe market for people's livelihood security has almost come to a standstill in other industries, which has also createdThis year2monthChina's manufacturing industry has achieved remarkable success2004yearThe lowest level since the start of the investigation（40.3）, thisNot a decrease in production efficiency、Cost increaseofQuestion, yes“peopleDescendants”BelowofBlockingnatureinfluence，Even if the cost is low, you cannot engage in large-scale production in this context。
So,currencyLoose fittingCan be used forenterpriserelievecapitalcostupperofPressure, butdifficult toDrive economic growth,alsoWill not improvecrude oilDemand, as long as the epidemic persists, demandTerminaldilemmathroughoutDifficult to solveTherefore, fromthisFrom a perspectiveThe favorable factors need to be further explored. But at the same time,WeanswerknowIt's precisely becauseThe epidemic has brought aboutThe economic impact of the epidemic is not related to production efficiency, so as long as the epidemic improves, the demand for crude oil will bepresentA retaliatory rebound.

whatLooking at the reduction in production on the supply side
From now onJudging from the news, the market expects that this time OPEC+possiblemeetingfurtherReduce production10010000 barrels/Day,In factThis quantityFor crude oilThe corresponding price, before the impact of the epidemic cannot be evaluated, is also OPECforecastNot coming out, so it is impossible to analyze the impact of deepening production cuts on oil prices from this perspective。butWeIt can be analyzed from the current oil prices themselves.
In ChinaSince the outbreak of the epidemic,beautifulOil from59.5dollarFalling to49.5dollar，；and2month20dayOil prices are starting to fall again,Lower rupture49.5dollaropenYesThe new space coincides with the epidemic in terms of timeobviousThe stage of global expansionFinal pricefall to43.6dollarStarting to rebound，This is the second stage of the decline in oil prices。
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butAt the same time, traders need to note that as the pandemic spreads globallyappearIn the process of spreading, the Chinese sideIt has been gradually increasingImprovement, andby3month2dayThe vast majority of ChinaregionFull resumption of work has been welcomed，This may be a heavyweight benefit for the demand side,(expectsayMondayThe impact of oil pricesStrongreboundyesFollowing the stock market, individuals are more willing tothisThe credit belongs to ChinacomprehensiveRegarding resumption of work)，You know,In the past yearChinaGrowth in crude oil imports72.410000 barrels/Day,stayWhat is the contribution rate of global crude oil growth demand75%So, once the demand from China starts to recover,This willbydemandendGetting betterBringing significant turning points.
stayIn this situation, the epidemicstayGlobalDespite the situationNot relieved, butoil pricePreviously, regarding ChinastagePricing with pessimistic expectationspartWe will gradually make up for it。So,ifthisOPEC+canDeepen production reduction100ten thousandbucket/Compared to the previous outbreak in China60ten thousandbucket/dayofExpectations, in my personal opinion, are greater positive,This may beIt will bring back oil pricesChinaThe oil price level during the epidemic phase.
comprehensive，For the first time, weneedRecognizing，stayThe factor that drives oil prices during the current special period should not be monetary policy,IfabsencegetBy understanding this logic, there may be deviations in holdings; Additionally,althoughThe pandemic is spreading globallysituationStill not optimistic, but asGlobal crude oilRequirement 2，China, which ranks first in imports, has already started to regain its health. If we add more6010000 barrels/Daily shiftlargeofdeepenReduction in production。So, although it cannot be asserted that it will fundamentallybringSupply balance（becauseThe epidemic is still ongoingchange(may also be more pessimistic)，butpossiblemeetingMake the near futurelongtimebe inpessimisticThe market sentiment has experienced a retaliatory rebound,together withThe crude oil market has always been filled with speculative sentiment, which may lead to a significant increase in oil prices.
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lastTechnical aspectoil priceForming a downward thrust on MondayTransparentAnd in a strong upward trend, the bulls have great ambitions, for the time beingcanfollow50.5dollarThe position, if continued to break up, maytest54USD.