MBG Markets：疫情背景之下降息不能真正刺激经济 却可能提振市场信心

MEXprospect
昨日股市普遍收涨，这或证实了gold资产之后带给股市一定程度上支撑的意义所在；目前来看，稳住自己的“钱袋子”仍然是关键，故黄金短期或难有转折性的涨幅，市场接下来寄期于以美联储为首的降息以进行救市，短期可能令钱荒得以缓解从而暂缓黄金的抛售，但这可能只是暂时的，在金价反弹之后仍有可能迎来再次的下行；另昨日关注到“江流有声”对黄金的看法，本人基本认同，但纸币虽无实际价值但在国家信用的依托下亦有使用价值，经济下行之下纸币贬值带动金价整体上行是必然，但我们既要认识到黄金的硬通属性，也应认识到投机市场里暗流涌动的风险，因为这是杠杆市场。
crude oilIn terms of maintaining fundamentals, there is almost no positive factor for oil prices. Interest rate cuts will not stimulate economic growth, and the rise of the stock market will not drive bulk demand. This is the logic in the context of the epidemic, so the demand side is still in a suppressed state; But the market is concerned about OPEC+The expectation of reduced production is the best driving force for the upward trend of crude oil. After a significant decline in crude oil before, it may increase the participation of speculators, which is the main driving force for the upward trend of oil prices. In the short term, we are still optimistic about the rebound trend of oil prices.
汇市方面，美元指数持续下挫，昨日最低测试97.1，短期虽然偏空，但市场对于美联储的降息举动可能给美元资产带来一定支撑；而欧元昨日已经成功反弹至我们此前的目标位置，接下来市场可能重新回到欧洲作为疫情重灾区的悲观情绪上来；商品货币方面近期亦可能因降息的刺激带来一定反弹，不过当前依旧建议大家整体操作上以控制风险为主。
MEXviewpoint
XAUUSD(gold)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1563  
resistance1 : 1626  resistance2: 1641
疫情进一步扩大带来全球股市暴跌，现金的缺乏迫使投资者全面抛售以满足其他产品的保证金要求，作为原本处于高价的黄金遭到抛售亦成了无奈之举，短期黄金上涨动能可能面临停滞。
技术上金价或处于2019year11Since the beginning of the month5浪终结之后的A段回落走势，昨日价格穿破24日以来拓展线100%位置或意味着A段下跌可能终结（且1小时以下于收盘时段有诱空迹象），接下来仍先期待B段反弹（下破1563失效），具体目标可根据蓝色拓展在线看目标，但在B段反弹走完之后我们将重新介入C段下行。
USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 45.35  brace2 : 43.60  
resistance1：48.2  resistance2：50.43
疫情带来的实际需求打压以及预期的悲观需求令原油陷入整体的悲观格局，这一因素或仍将成为主导；不过，考虑到在利空出现阶段性消化之后，3month5OPEC in Japan+减产会议可能令油价获得短暂支撑，虽减产不能从根本上令油价出现转机，但可能造就短期反弹。
Technically44.8-43.6区间为为时间周期拓展线结构的强劲支撑地带，昨日价格如期上行到达两个多头目标，并于日线收成刺透阳KIn order to provide a clear rebound signal, we have expanded this rebound to the dividing line61.8%位置，交易者可于小级别回落之后继续进场。
EURUSD (EUR/USD)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.1030   brace2 : 1.0928   
resistance1：1.1185   
此前欧元区经济数据与美国经济数据形成短暂对比优势。叠加疫情在美国爆发的风险，我们成功完成欧元的反弹预期；不过，因欧洲目前亦属于疫情重灾区，对欧元的反弹不能盲目乐观，加之接下来美国方面可能出台应对措施或令欧元形成打压。
技术上截至昨日，欧元已经成功完成我们看反弹至2019year6month25Starting from today, the golden ratio61.8%位置的预期，此点位的承压信号已经初步显现，建议接下来看行情针对此段涨幅的回落走势，下方目标关注此前1.0928Trapping forming points.
GBPUSD(GBP to USD)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.2725  brace2：1.2472  
resistance1：1.2857  resistance2 : 1.2938   
本周英欧迎来第一轮谈判，由此英镑的波动可能出现较为剧烈的波动，因此前两周我们一直强调这样的利空预期，市场亦在之前做出过部分消化，交易者在谈判到来之时更应该以控制风险为主。
Technically1.2725For targeting2month20日以来行情的诱空走势，谨防此点位支撑之后行情有反弹需求，上方1.2857Breaking up to the dividing line61.8%Location, but price breaks down1.2725It is possible to continue downward testing and break through the triangle position1:1The support of space.
USDJPY(USD to JPY)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：107.40  brace2 : 106.60  
resistance1：109.23  resistance2 : 110.35
此前受美元等避险资产的抛弃，日元的避险功能稍稍回血，但目前日本仍为疫情重灾区，加之市场接下来或寄期于美联储进行救市，此举有令资金在短期重新看好美元资产的可能，由此日元可能再次走低。
技术上价格于布林下轨初现企稳迹象，此举预示行情可能进行反弹修复，接下来关注价格反弹至布林中轨与分割线38.2%附近，破位继续上看。
AUDUSD(AUD to USD)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.6450
resistance1：0.6583  resistance2：0.6670  
疫情延续以来带动全球大宗商品普遍承压，相关货币亦遭受同步打压，短期来看，澳元几无反弹动能；不过因目前市场焦点更关注于美元的抛售，加之市场预计澳联储可能在三月份进行降息，不排除此举可能为澳元带来短暂的止跌。
技术上价格已经测试2018year9month30日起的趋势线支撑，接下来关注此点若不下破，短期关注红色趋势线压制的测试，上破有望进一步反弹上行。
NZDUSD(NZD to USD)


Data source:MEX Markets
resistance1 : 0.6305  resistance2 : 0.6375     
brace1：0.6190  brace2 : 0.5920  
疫情延续以来带动全球大宗商品普遍承压，相关货币亦遭受同步打压，短期来看，纽元几无反弹动能；不过因目前市场焦点更关注于美元的抛售，加之市场预计新西兰联储可能在三月份进行降息，不排除此举可能为纽元带来短暂的止跌。
Technically, New York is testing2015Year and Year2019年重叠低位之后与小级别开启刺透性反弹，日内仍可在小幅回落之后介入多单，并关注趋势线破位，如此将迎来进一步上行。
USDCAD(USD to CAD)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.3303  brace2：1.3243   
resistance2：1.3403  
The epidemic not only affected the overall export market of Canada, but also exacerbated the depreciation of the Canadian dollar due to the further decline in oil prices. Therefore, the logic of the Canadian dollar's decline was as expected; However, there are currently indications that oil prices may experience a rebound trend, which may drive the Canadian dollar to strengthen.
Technically, the US dollar/Canadian dollar is currently experiencing a correction in its previous gains, and this decline may also be aimed at1month7Since the daily riseABC调整，接下来关注红色分割线61.8%支撑，反弹测试23.6%，进而根据拓展线结构继续下测1.3243。
USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9712   
resistance1：0.9796  resistance2:0.9848
Despite the high holding cost of the Swiss franc and the variable market caused by Swiss bank currency intervention, the Swiss franc still did not show any clear signs of weakness due to the decline in the US dollar index; However, considering that the Federal Reserve may introduce measures to rescue the market, and risk aversion may return to US dollar assets, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current situation. It is recommended that the Federal Reserve and Swiss Federal Reserve maintain a cautious attitude.
Technically, the US dollar/Swiss franc still tends to be pessimistic overall, with prices falling below yesterday2019year12Monthly expansion line61.8%Support, there will be continuous downward testing next100%The possibility is that traders need to61.8%Nearby suppression serves as an empty defensive point.
HK50(Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)


Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：25780  
resistance1：26833
Affected by the ongoing pandemic, global stock markets have collectively sold off significantly, driving Hong Kong stocks to continue to decline. In the short term, the impact of peripheral markets on Hong Kong stocks may continue; However, as the epidemic in China has gradually been brought under control, more attention should be paid in the futureAThe performance of the stock market, if stabilized, may slow down the decline of Hong Kong stocks.
技术面昨日26025位置终未能成功压制，价格于前低附近短暂支撑，25780The price is2019year4month15起拓展线支撑，谨防价格于配合RSI背离进行反弹，上方关注点仍为趋势线压制。
Focus on financial information/event
Note: ★ represents importance
11：30  Australia to3month3日澳洲联储利率决    ★★★★
18：00  eurozone2monthCPIMonthly rate    ★★★★
         eurozone2monthCPIAnnual rate initial value    ★★★★
        eurozone1monthPPIMonthly rate    ★★★★
        eurozone1Monthly unemployment rate    ★★★★
17：30  英国央行行长及货币政策委员出席下议院财政委员会会议    ★★★★