Wave amplitude analysis method

Reminder: In order to improve the accuracy of direction control, investors can further distinguish based on specific operational patterns, such as whether it is a relay pattern or a reversal pattern.Wave amplitude is also one of the main factors that we judge the rhythm of market operation, but this indicator is the most unfamiliar to many investors.

After historical statistics, we found that the euro/dollar10The average daily wave amplitude over the years has remained relatively stable100Click around and then perform normal statistical analysis on the sample, and it is found that2/3The single day wave amplitude of is concentrated at70-130Within the range of points. This indicates that our main expected difference between the high and low points during the day is within this range when conducting intraday operations.


During the operation of the market, there will also be small and large fluctuations outside this range. Based on historical data statistics, we will conduct daily analysis60The amplitude within a point is defined as the minimum amplitude day, and a single day is defined as the minimum amplitude day160The above amplitude is defined as the maximum amplitude day.


The amplitude analysis we do here mainly analyzes the occurrence of extreme wavelet amplitude days. The pattern is that when the market continuously experiences extremely small amplitude days, it is very easy to see extremely large amplitude days in the following.


At this point, further judgment should be made based on the morphology:
1If it appears continuously3A daily or longer period of extremely small volatility with a range fluctuation pattern indicates that the market is facing a breakthrough. Once the key resistance level of range oscillation is broken, it is likely to erupt into continuous unilateral extremely large volatility days.
2If it appears continuously3A day or longer with extremely small wave amplitudes should run in the same direction. At this time, it is necessary to distinguish whether it appears at the beginning or end of the trend, or whether the trend in that period is a secondary trend or a main trend.


In most cases,
When it appears at the beginning of a trend, the maximum amplitude caused by it is more likely to follow the trend;
When it appears at the end of a trend, the maximum amplitude caused by it is more likely to go against the trend in the daily direction;
When it appears in a secondary trend, the direction of the maximum amplitude caused is more likely to follow the main trend direction.

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