MEX MARKETS Morning Express

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – Relatively optimistic about Europe this week/Beauty（EURUSD）。从欧元区近期公布的经济数据来看有一定程度好转，叠加联邦基金利率futuresHint to the Federal Reserve2020Interest rates will be lowered annually75个基点，美元的走弱给欧元带来了支撑。但考虑到疫情影响，欧洲经济前景依然存在较强担忧，欧元中期依然承压。Therefore,short-term我们维持Euro（EURUSD)为跌幅过大后的修正，中期趋势依然偏弱。1.1050The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.[/li]

[li]On the UK side,虽然近期英国经济数据整体向好。但目前市场的焦点在英国与欧盟的贸易谈判上，英国政府表示如果到6月与欧盟的协议尚未清晰，英国将开始为无协议做准备。Considering the increasing tension between the two sides at present, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure for the pound in the short term.[/li]

In terms of commodity currency,昨日澳元兑美元大涨0.53%，主要还是因美元指数加速回落。尽管公共卫生方面风险消息日内暂时缓和，然而，市场仍然关注全球央行的政策反应，在全球产业链受到冲击的背景下，处于供应链上游的澳洲经济仍会面临冲击。对此，我们早有提示，由于近期澳元跌幅过大，下半周或有技术性反弹。

[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,目前市场对美国经济可能受到公共卫生事件的担忧情绪升温，这也使得美联储年内降息预期升温，联邦基金利率期货暗示美联储2020Interest rates will be lowered annually75个基点；叠加十年期美债收益率跌至历史新低的1.268%，美元也因此受到拖累。[/li]

[li]近日因疫情在全球范围蔓延引致的恐慌情绪升温，叠加十年期美债收刷新历史低位1.268%。受此影响，避险资金重返日债市场，这也是近期日元走强的主要原因。[/li]

[li]It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.[/li]

commodity market

[li]Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）为震荡偏多结构和crude oil（WTI）For weakly oscillating structures.目前来看，全球避险情绪仍然非常高，股市的走低和国债收益率的创新低，都将使得各国央行都将采取行动。因此，我们认为在全球利率还有调低的可能金价是有支撑。因此，我们维持The price of gold will be1620-1650区间震荡，短期为正乖离过大以后的修正。[/li]

[li]In terms of oil prices, global public health risks are further fermenting, leading to increasingly pessimistic views of investment on the economic outlook. In addition, the decline in global stock markets has intensified risk appetite and led to a decline.therefore，WethinkCrude oil（WTI）短期将震荡偏弱。[/li]

stock market indexprospect

[li]恒生指数方面，市场忧虑疫情进一步扩散，避险情绪高涨，恐慌指数VIX也大涨逾40%。不过，周四恒指低开高收，虽然早盘一度跌近1%，但午后持续走高，尾盘转涨，最高涨超百点，收盘涨0.31%，只主要还是受到内地市场的影响。[/li]

[li]盘面上，阿里概念、在线教育板块上扬，油气设备、汽车板块下挫。Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000短期还将面临压力。[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the net short position of the euro is at its peak, and the growth rate of net short positions has slowed down. Therefore, we believe that there will be capital inflows and support a rebound. In addition, the net long positions of the pound and Swiss franc are also at their peak.[/li]

[li]WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1000	109.50	1.2850	1.3400	0.6600	0.6300
midline	1.1000	109.50	1.2850	1.3400	0.6600	0.6350

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	46.00	1,650
midline	46.00	1,650

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