Li Dingyuan:1.11下周黄金还会涨吗？周一金价行情走势分析及操作建议

　　说实话我希望可以把自己的热情暖感染到每一个人。我爱我的行业，几年间，几乎都熬夜看盘到很晚，也常常因为解一个客户的套单，通宵不睡，不仅要解套，还要经常和他们谈心，做这一行，心态，永远是第一位，我觉得客户和分析师的差别不仅仅是专业技能的差别，最大的地方是心态，客户多半因为真金白银犹豫不决半信半疑的错过很多盈利机会，反而会亏，我是一个心很软的人。做久了和客户成了朋友，有时候也很心疼他们的处境，做这个多半是想赚钱，能改善一下生活条件，听了他们的故事，真的是暗暗下决心一定要为他们多赚一点。毕竟谁的钱都不是大风刮来的，都是辛辛苦苦的血汗钱。我们要尊重自己的劳动成果。我爱这个的行业，我不知道有多少人在和我一样的坚持着我们的初衷。为了分析师这个头衔没日没夜的拼着。我也希望看到我这段话的真真正正的投资者，能让我为你们做点什么。对投资不理想或者想学习的朋友可以咨询我，我会尽我最大的努力帮助你。
　　
　　世界银行表示2019年全球经济的表现为自2008年全球金融危机以来最弱，尽管2020年有望改善，但仍受到贸易和地缘政治紧张局势不确定性的影响。值得留意的是，目前市场普遍预期1month15日中美贸易有望获得良好进展，但目前市场对全球经济于2020年的表现仍难以乐观。但有意思的是，标普500指数于周四（1month9日）再度刷新历史新高至3267，反映市场对美国经济前景的乐观预期。而据最新公布的CME“美联储观察”显示：美联储1月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is90.6%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is9.4%。目前市场普遍预期美联储将于2020至少降息一次，但美联储亦强调目前区间利率合适，除非发生重大改变，否则将维持利率不变。
　　
　　李鼎缘个人观点：据悉，美联储有望引入新的通胀新规。虽然美国失业率目前处于50年来的低位，但通胀却一直达不到设定的目标。2012年，美联储将通胀目标设定为2%，但美国的通胀多数时间维持在该水平下方。由于当前美国经济增长出现明显的放缓迹象，“低通胀、低利率”限制了美联储进一步降息及其它宽松政策的空间。市场多数投资者认为，若通胀新规实施，将令美联储今年加息的概率增加。除了美联储官员的讲话之外，美国国会众议院当地时间周四将就限制特朗普对伊朗采取军事行动的权力的决议进行投票。根据决议，若国会批准上述决议，美国政府对伊朗的军事敌对行动必须在30天内结束。如无意外，众议院将会大票数通过此项决议，不确定性来自共和党掌控的参议院。若美国国会通过了这项决议，则美伊双方军事冲突的概率将进一步降低，令市场的避险情绪继续降温。
　　
　　goldquotations analysis
　　
　　美联储官员一致认为贸易风险消退或预示2020年经济更好，美元表现强劲，美国股市再创历史记录新高；市场对中东局势的担忧情绪基本消退，都打压金价表现；短线金价仍存进一步下行风险；市场将关注晚间美国非农就业报告的表现。现货黄金价格下跌，本周迄今下跌0.3%, for12month6日止当周以来的最差表现。美国总统特朗普和伊朗均表示有意让军是紧张局势降级。美国众议院1month9日通过一项决议，阻止特朗普对伊朗进一步采取军是行动。
　　
　　现货黄金自1611美元开启下行回调走势。金价已经跌破1548美元，它是1445-1611美元上行区间的38.2%斐波那契回档位。下方支撑位看向1528USD and1509美元，它们分别是上述区间的50%and61.8%费波纳奇回档位。小时图上看，若金价短线开启反弹，上方近期压力位看向1557USD and1567美元，即1611dollar-1540美元下行区间的23.6%and38.2%费波纳奇回档位。鼎缘认为，风险意愿回暖意味着诸如黄金等安全资产受到获利了结的打击，且这种情况可能会持续一段时间；美国即将公布非农数据，目前来看预期仍向好，与此同时，人们对中美贸易协议的乐观情绪增强。
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1525Long nearby, stop loss1520, Objective1535-1540；（破位1525可以减仓继续下看）
　　
　　2Suggestions1562Short nearby, stop loss1675, Objective1545-1528；
　　
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Personal feedback on making orders:
　　
　　1Spot: The spot where the order is placed is quite important, although gold.crude oil是多和空两种模式操作，其实是四种操作方法，低多，低空，高多，高空这四种，在单边势头中，这四种模式都是可取的，如果是在震荡趋势中，切记不可低空和高多，这样就相当于追涨杀跌，万万切记，很多人都是追涨杀跌导致亏损。
　　
　　2Stop loss: Before placing an order, you should think about the stop loss price and whether it is reasonable. After placing an order, you should immediately fill in the stop loss price. Why do you need to fill in the stop loss at the beginning? If the market is not the situation you want to go, then you can reduce losses in the first place. Stop loss means to stop losses. Only small losses can maintain vitality, and sometimes you need to be willing to give up, It's not that you're losing this time and won't be able to earn back next time. You need to control the risks of your investment.
　　
　　3Positions: How funds are allocated is related to the level of psychological resilience. If a position is too large or full, once the trend reverses, losses will increase, and psychological stress will also increase. Often, it is not possible to carefully analyze market trends, resulting in incorrect operations.
　　
　　4Stop profit: Many people often fail to do a good job of stopping profit, resulting in profit orders becoming loss orders. In a unilateral trend, stop profit can be increased by using the push stop loss method to increase profit space. Stop profit often requires personal thinking to close positions, not every order must earn tens of thousands or even tens of thousands. In a volatile market, sometimes a few hundred profits add up.
　　
　　5Attitude: This is the most important point that every investor must grasp. When you enter this market, it is undeniable that everyone is trying to make money, but your attitude determines how far you will go on the investment path. What you need to achieve is to rather make small profits than lose money, rather than thinking about earning more and earning less.
　　
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Analysis writer: Li Dingyuan  Wei-Core（ ldy86588） Official account (Li Dingyuan)
　　
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