MEX GROUP:Morning Express2020-01-08

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference – 本周我们继续维持看好欧/Beauty（EURUSD）和看弱镑/Beauty（GBPUSD）的偏好。昨日欧元区通胀基本符合市场预期，后续我们相对看好德国工业产出数据。Pound/Beauty（GBPUSD）在超升以后也如我们预期出现了回落，估值合理区间大概在1.3000Near.dollar(DXY)方面，从美联储的表态来看通胀依然不及预期；昨晚ISMNon manufacturingPMI较强给予了美元一定支持。整体来看，我们认为本周12月非农数据恐难有太大表现，美元(DXY)依然为一个偏弱结构。除此以外，我们注意到CFTC资金流显示欧元的净空头依然处于极值，因此，我们维持欧元买入预期，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。
[/li][li]商品市场方面，中东局势再度升级，急剧升温的地缘局势和避险情绪使得WTIcrude oil、gold（XAUUSD）再度大涨。就目前来看，黄金（XAUUSD）周线指标有背离，因此，有超升的嫌疑，但如果情绪面反应激烈可能还会冲高。WTI原油也随着局势升温升破65beautiful/桶，我们将目标再度上调至65。后续需持续关注事态发展。
[/li][li]商品货币方面，各大商品货币在上周超升以后，也期纷纷出现了回调。本周我们认为加拿大就业人数恐不及预期，因此，看多美/Add（USDCAD）。除此以外，上周我们一再吁投资者做空商品货币，澳/beautiful (AUDUSD) Newtonian/beautiful (NZDUSD) ，两者分别下跌0.37%and0.52% 反映为有效，本周我们维持继续买入欧元相对其他货币和卖出英镑相对其他货币更为吸引；投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略因而再创新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.3%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time01month08day8:25The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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abstract

[li]CFTC资金流数据显示，欧元净空头仍处极值，日元净空头已经开始收敛，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。
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[li]Australia/美、纽/美已走出预期走势可持有，谨慎者可兑现部分利润。
[/li][li]XAU、WTI激进者可继续持有，谨慎者可兑现部分利润。
[/li][li]中线维持看好商品。
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1170	108.00	1.3100	1.3000	0.6850	0.6600
midline	1.1200	107.50	1.3050	1.3000	0.6850	0.6600

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	65.00	1,600
midline	65.00	1,600

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