李亦合：美伊局势仍然紧张，避险还是市场主旋律

李亦合：美伊局势仍然紧张，避险还是市场主旋律

在周一的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈反弹后回落整理的走势，美元指数最高上涨到96.90，最低下跌到96.54, closing at96.67。欧美最高上涨到1.1207，最低下跌到1.1157, closing at1.1192。

美国和伊朗的局势依然剑拔弩张，市场人气保持谨慎，美元兑日元虽有所上涨，但兑瑞郎继续走低。伊朗周日宣布将放弃铀浓缩限制，进一步减少对2015年伊核协议承诺的遵守，但将继续与联合国核监督机构合作。美国在2018年已经退出了该协议。

美元有时被视为避险资产，因全球多数央行将美元作为其主要储备货币，且许多全球企业使用美元进行贸易，但日元和瑞郎则是更为传统的避险选择。与此同时，欧元/美元隐含波动率指标相对平稳，表明投资者尚未通过大举购买外汇option来对冲投资组合的风险。此外，德意志银行编制的汇市波动性指数仅微幅上升，仍接近纪录低点。

另一方面，英国议会即将复会，计划针对首相约翰逊与欧盟达成的脱欧协议展开辩论。英镑兑美元有所回升。

从技术上来看，美指周一反弹在96.90之下遇阻，回调在96.50之上受到支持，收盘在96.67，意味着美元短线反弹后有可能保持回调的走势。如果美指今天反弹在96.90If there is a hindrance below, the goal of future correction will be directed towards96.50—96.35. Today, the short-term resistance of the US Index is96.85—96.90Short term important resistance97.05—97.10. Today, the short-term support of the US Index is on96.50—96.55Short term important support in96.35—96.40。欧美周一回调在1.1155之上受到支持，反弹在1.1210之下遇阻，收盘在1.1192，意味着欧美短线回调后有可能保持反弹的走势。如果欧美今天回调在1.1160之上受到支持，后市反弹的目标将会指向1.1215—1.1235. Today, short-term resistance in Europe and America is1.1210—1.1215Short term important resistance1.1230—1.1235. Today, short-term support in Europe and America1.1160—1.1165Short term important support in1.1135—1.1140。

The US dollar is mainly short selling during high periods today, breaking levels to stop losses and making profits30Set a stop win for orders with more than one point, and withdraw all outstanding orders before the US market opens. This strategy is suitable for margin trading and a firm offer can be used as a reference.

US dollar index: can be found in96.85—96.35Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit25Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.

Euro/USD: can be used in1.1235---1.1165Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.

GBP/USD: can be used in1.3245---1.3095Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Stop loss at a single point, with the target at the upper limit of the range.

gold: Can be found in the1582.00---1554.00Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit5美元止损，目标在区间的上限。

白银：可以在18.40—17.90Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.10美元止损，目标在区间的上限。

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