Jue Ying Lun Jin:1.3中东避险局势持续升温 Analysis of the latest trend of gold and crude oil and operational suggestions

　　专注gold、crude oilMarket analysis! Accuracy and profit are the only criteria for testing strength! Trend investment, the road to simplicity; Profit first, risk control is king! We will not be a dead bull or a dead bear, we will be a slippery slope in the market and follow the trend! Fundamentals determine everything, prices are inclusive,KLines reflect everything, technical aspects interpret everything! If there are no trading principles and discipline, technology is zero and everything will be lost!
　　
From9月高点遇阻回落以来，美元指数已跌超3.3%；而后2020年伊始美元跌势似乎得到控制，目前来到长期趋势线支撑上。新的一年美元指数开盘创自1996年以来最窄波幅，若美元去年第三季度（自9月高点以来）的反转下行走势如技术面信号那么强劲，则未来几月美元指数跌势可能加剧。目前美元指数正在测试一个持续多年的上行趋势通道支撑。从操作的角度讲，在月初恢复上涨之前绝影将寻找潜在疲软信号，短线看跌目标聚焦96甚至更低水平。

　　　
　绝影论金个人观点：金价升破1540美元跳涨至近四个月高位1543.93dollar/Ounces, for9month6日以来新高，伊朗高级指挥官在美国发起的伊拉克空袭中丧生，中东紧张局势骤然升级，提升黄金的避险买需，美元走疲也为金价提供支撑。绝影认为，鉴于全球经济逐步走强，2020年一季度金价可能略微走软。技术面来看，金价已突破9Monthly high1536dollar/盎司，可能剑指2019年全年高点1557dollar/盎司。如果跌破1520dollar/盎司，则有可能进一步下探至1500dollar/盎司整数关口。
　　
————Analysis of Gold Market
　　
Thursday（1month2日）美国劳工部公布的数据显示，截至12month28The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week has decreased2000People, seasonally adjusted for22.2Ten thousand people, expected to be22.5万人。初请失业金人数的四周移动平均值上升了4750People, achieving23.325万人，为自2018year1月以来的最高水平。初请失业金人数小幅下降，这是美国劳动力市场的一个积极信号。绝影论金分析指出，尽管上一交易日美元展开反弹，但近期整体疲软态势不变，这一定程度上仍对黄金构成支撑。因此，上一交易日黄金和美元呈现同步上涨的局面，加之地缘政治的不确定性重新攀升，使得市场避险情绪升温，投资者纷纷买入黄金对冲风险。
　　
　　美元和黄金之间的负相关性是推动金价从1480USD rise1520美元的真正原因，但美元进一步上涨可能会给金价带来压力。目前金价明显上涨，并触及1540.00dollar/盎司，这巩固了金价在日内以及短期内继续看涨趋势的预期。从4Looking at the hourly chart,EMA 50指标对金价构成支撑。金价涨至主要目标1556.70dollar/盎司的道路已经被打开。值得注意的是，假如金价跌破1523.00dollar/盎司，这可能令金价承压并测试关键支撑1489.00dollar/盎司，然后再试图反弹。文中操作建议仅供参考，具体建议实盘现价给出，操作不理想或把握不了行情方向的朋友可添加指导微信：3051562977Obtain guidance quotas;
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1545Short nearby, stop loss1550, Objective1535-1530；
　　
　　2Suggestions1525Long nearby, stop loss1520, Objective1530-1535；
　　
　　3、策略仅供参考，盘间行情瞬息万变，具体进场点位以绝影论金微信（mot686)The actual offer shall prevail;

　　　
　————原油行情分析
　　
　　由于俄罗斯原油产量创记录新高及美元全线反弹,国际油价周四早盘承压走低,不过接近周二低点时企稳回升,因中东地缘紧张局势加剧令原油供应中断担忧重燃,as well asOPEC+扩大减产规模。伊拉克的原油产量受到持续的国内示威活动的压力越来越大,原因是施政不力,缺乏工作和基本服务。鉴于此,伊拉克在2020年的出现原油供应中断的风险巨大。
　　
　　原油日图双十字K线配合中阴线回撤修正，从空间上来看，本周的两个交易日回调空间比上升空间略大，日图有轻微修正需求，不过暂时均线系统还未拐头，虽然收盘在10日线附近，但并未完全失守，还需观察今日收盘情况来决定多空延续。若是强势多头的话，日图整理三个交易日后，今日理应收复失地。或者说整理不能再破60.60低点，一旦跌破的话，会由强势转弱势回落。短线未失守60.60趋势仍看多，目前的整理修正是为了进一步的蓄势冲高，反之跌破的话，则会加深调整空间。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上绝影论金个人建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注63.5-63.8Frontline resistance, short-term focus below61.8-61.5Frontline support.
　　
Suggestions for short-term crude oil operations:
　　
　　1Suggestions63.5Short nearby, stop loss64.0, Objective62.8-62.5；
　　
　　2Suggestions61.8Long nearby, stop loss61.3, Objective62.3-63.2；
　　
　　3、行情瞬息万变、点位仅供参考，中长线布局详情请关注绝影论金官||Wei:mot686；

　　
　　新手该如何正确投资黄金原油
　　
　　1Control emotions - Investors must be calm and control their emotions. They must calmly respond to sudden changes in the market, otherwise they will miss out on opportunities due to indecision. It is best to be prepared to deal with various possibilities before entering the market, so that when encountering sudden changes in the market, one may not feel too surprised and at a loss.
　　
　　2Starting from small transactions - For newcomers to the market, it is necessary to start with small scale transactions, gradually grasp the trading rules and accumulate experience, and then gradually increase positions.
　　
　　3Avoid being eager for quick success and instant benefit - there should be no desire for quick success and instant benefit in transactions. Investors should not enter the market based on their subjective desires in trading. Successful investors generally strictly separate their emotions from trading activities to avoid the market trend being opposite to personal wishes and bearing heavier risks.
　　
　　4Be prepared to accept failure at any time - investing in gold and crude oil carries risks, and trading failure will be inevitable throughout the entire transaction. It is also an important way for investors to gradually learn from and accumulate experience. In the face of investment failure, only by carefully summarizing can investors gradually improve their investment ability, avoid risks, and strive for profitability.
　　
　　5Better miss than make mistakes - opportunities are always present, and seizing them requires a pair of bright eyes rather than quietly waiting for an empty opportunity.
　　
　　6、制定适合自己的投资计划——生活需要规划，投资需要计划，投资不是一朝一夕的事，只有严格执行，才能从中获利。那么怎样成为黄金原油投资市场的获利者，这很关键。细想投资至今你盈利如何。
　　
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