mex group-Morning Express2020-01-02

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference – 本周继续看好欧/Beauty（EURUSD）的偏好。我们认为接下来德国的制造业数据和通胀数据将进一步推升欧元。不过，镑/Beauty（GBPUSD）的走势是远超我们的预期，近期出现了大涨，主要是因为约翰逊誓言要带领英国脱欧，以及让国民团结一致结束分化利多英镑。dollar(DXY)方面，我们还是较为看好本周五的ISMmanufacturingPMI，并认为这或许会在下半周将给予美元一定支撑。但整体来看，本周我们还是维持美元为偏弱结构。除此以外，我们注意到CFTC资金流显示欧元的净空头依然处于极值并有资金流入，因此，我们维持欧元买入预期，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。[/li]

[li]In terms of the commodity market,crude oil、gold上周大涨。建议大家关注WTIcrude oil62附近压力；XAU已经突破1515的阻力位，下一个阻力关口为1530。[/li]

[li]商品货币方面，十二月份中国官方制造业PMI再上扩张水平 50.2 (市场预期: 50.1) ，我们认为今日公布的财新制造业PMI也将符合预期。另外，近期贸易乐观前景继续推高澳元、纽元和加元等大宗商品货币，不过要注意超升以后出现回调。另外，上周我们一再吁投资者做多欧/beautiful (EURUSD) Australia/beautiful (AUDUSD) ，两者分别上涨0.88%and1.15% 反映为有效，本周我们维持上周策略组合，继续买入欧元相对商品货币更为吸引；投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略因而再创本年新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.[/li]

[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％。组合净值上周下跌0.27%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time01month02day8:40The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTC 资金流数据显示，欧元及日元净空头仍处极值，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。[/li]

[li]Australia/美、纽/美、WTI、XAU已达到目标价，投资者可获利了解。[/li]

[li]Europe/美、美/日已走出预期走势，可持有。[/li]

[li]我们中线维持看好商品。[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1250	109.00	1.3340	1.2950	0.7000	0.6750
midline	1.1250	108.50	1.3200	1.2950	0.7000	0.6700

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	62.00	1,515
midline	61.00	1,500

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