mex group-Morning Express2019-12-31

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference – 本周继续看好欧/Beauty（EURUSD）的偏好。上周市场的走势基本符合我们的预期，本周我们认为德国的制造业数据和通胀数据将进一步推升欧元。新年假期，全球各地股市交易时间减短，同时财经日历上重大数据较少，市场波动性也将较低。另外，近期贸易乐观前景继续推高澳元、纽元和加元等大宗商品货币，不过要注意中国制造业数据的变化以及超升以后的回调。美元方面，较为看好本周五的ISMmanufacturingPMI，这或许会在下半周会给予美元一定支撑。因此，本周我们依然维持美元为偏弱走势。除此以外，我们注意到CFTC资金流显示欧元的净空头依然处于极值并有资金流入，因此，我们维持欧元买入预期，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。[/li]

[li]In terms of the commodity market,crude oil、gold上周大涨。建议大家关注WTIcrude oil62附近压力以及XAUstay1480-1515区间阻力。另外，上周我们一再吁投资者做多欧/beautiful (EURUSD) Australia/beautiful (AUDUSD) ，两者分别上涨0.88%and1.15% 反映为有效，本周我们维持上周策略组合，继续买入欧元相对商品货币更为吸引；投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略因而再创本年新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.[/li]

[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％。组合净值上周下跌0.27%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time12month31day8:20The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTC 资金流数据显示，欧元及日元净空头仍处极值，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。[/li]

[li]Australia/美、纽/美、WTI、XAU再次到达目标价，投资者可先兑现部分盈利。[/li]

[li]Europe/美、美/日已走出预期走势，可持有。[/li]

[li]我们中线维持看好商品。[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1200	109.00	1.3100	1.3050	0.7000	0.6750
midline	1.1200	108.50	1.3000	1.3100	0.6950	0.6700

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	62.00	1,515
midline	61.00	1,500

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