mex group-Daily Express 2019-12-26

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference – 维持美/day (USDJPY)中性偏好，相对看好超跌以后的欧/Beauty（EURUSD）。圣诞节假期，全球各地股市交易时间减短，同时财经日历上重大数据较少，料本周市场波动性将较低。中美贸易已经取得第一阶段成功，市场避险情有所降温,商品货币也因此而受到提振；另外，周一美国的核心耐用品订单数据出乎意料的差。因此，我们维持美/日的中性评级，并认为本周美/日将在109.2-109.5区间波动。除此以外，我们注意到CFTC资金流显示欧元的净空头渐趋收敛并有资金流入，因此，我们维持欧元相对超跌以后买入预期，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。[/li]

[li]商品货币方面，加拿大月度GDP数据较弱，因此，我们维持美/Add（USDCAD）1.32的估值。另外，上周我们一再吁投资者做空镑/Australia (GBPAUD) 及镑/Newtonian (GBPNZD) ，两者分别下跌2.74%and2.48% 反映为有效，对此我们认为英镑相对商品货币的下跌已大致完成并反映在价内，反之买入欧元相对商品货币更为吸引；投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略因而再创本年新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.[/li]

[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％。组合净值上周大涨1.62%并再创新高，This week's combination and as of Beijing time12month26day8:00The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTC资金流数据显示，欧元及日元净空头处极值，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。[/li]

[li]Australia/美、纽/美、WTI再次到达目标价，投资者可先兑现部分盈利。[/li]

[li]XAU可继续持有，谨慎者减仓。[/li]

[li]我们中线维持看好商品。[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1100	109.50	1.3000	1.3200	0.6950	0.6650
midline	1.1100	109.20	1.3000	1.3200	0.6900	0.6600

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	61.00	1,495
midline	62.00	1,500

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