MBG Markets：约翰逊脱欧心切英镑受挫，PMI数据爆冷欧元强韧

　　
约翰逊脱欧心切，英镑跌势难止(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达186Points, closing down0.64%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to62-63一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。构图可得，1.3515为此前英镑涨势61.8%外部拓展位，汇价此前触及此高位引发多头回补行情。上方阻力关注1.3515Below support attention10日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:英国首相约翰逊称将修改法律，以保证英国脱欧过渡阶段不会延长，英镑兑美元应声下跌，大量在1.3300下方的止损卖盘被执行。据外媒报道，修订后的脱欧协议草案将使“与欧盟方面的过渡安排必须于明年12month31日结束”成为法律，这可能让英国在明年年底再度面临无协议脱欧的风险。英国12Monthly service industryPMIRecorded49, for2016year7The lowest since the beginning of the month. Britain12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIRecorded47.4，平年内最低水平。机构指出，数据表明英国第四季度经济势将陷入萎缩。
　　
manufacturingPMI走软，欧元顽强上扬(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar35Individual points, closing up0.1%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to60-61一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注1.1200Below support attention10日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value recorded45.9, Germany12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value recorded43.4France12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value recorded50.3，均弱于前值及预期。德国经济部在12月份的月度报告中表示，德国经济仍然停滞不前，但有“初步迹象”表明制造业的下滑局面结束——随着企业信心和出口回升，工业订单和销售开始稳定。Markit经济学家：欧元区经济2019年表现为2013年以来最差，企业在接近停滞的需求逆风因素中挣扎，明年经济前景黯淡。
　　
金价震幅收窄，投行积极唱多(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached67Individual points, closing up0.08%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5趋于走高，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to54-55Frontline operation, with a smaller operating slope tending to rise. Attention to resistance above1487，下方支撑关注中轨支撑。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌3.88%, closing on12.14； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.91%, closing on17.42。高盛：认为黄金的结构性需求仍然强劲，维持1600dollar/盎司的价格预期。高盛对2020年金价看好的三大原因为：1.经贸形势的恶化导致市场避险情绪升温、全球经济放缓催生了新一轮央行宽松潮、负收益率债券规模激增导致高收益的避险资产紧缺。
　　
　　
　　
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