MBG Markets：市场风险情绪骤起，英国出口民调推升英镑

　　
出口民调保守党占优，英镑破位1.35(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达465Individual points, closing up2.07%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to83-84一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。构图可得，1.3515为此前英镑涨势61.8%，英镑或已触及阶段性高点，需谨慎其回调。上方阻力关注1.3515Below support attention5日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:本周初，有模型显示英国保守党将获得339个席位。而据英国官方最新出口民调（调查机构在投票站出口处对刚刚走出投票站的选民进行的调查）显示，约翰逊领导的保守党料赢得下议院650个席位中的368席，主要工党预计将获得191席。首相鲍里斯·约翰逊有望在英国大选中赢得压倒性胜利，从而使英国踏上下月脱离欧盟的道路。面对大选惨败，英国工党领袖科尔宾称，不会在之后的大选中继续领导工党。
　　
短期能源报告利好，油价盘整收涨(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar96Individual points, closing up0.46%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to67-68一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注1.1200Below support attention1.1100。
　　
Fundamentals:隔夜，欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变。欧洲央行预计利率会保持目前或较低的水平，直到通胀前景可以稳定地转变为大约2％的水平；欧洲央行政策声明中没有提到政策评估；欧洲央行将继续购买债券，直到利率上调。拉加德在新闻发布会上表示，有一些初步的迹象表明经济出现企稳，潜在通货膨胀率温和上升；经济增长仍然存在下行风险，但并不那么明显；即将展开的战略评估将从明年1月份某个时候开始，并将于明年底前结束。
　　
特朗普推特逆转风险情绪，金价震荡收涨(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached248Points, closing down0.65%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to48-49一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注1489，下方支撑关注中轨支撑。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌7%, closing on13.94； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.34%, closing on17.56。 The world's largest goldETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto12month12日增持0.29吨黄金，净持仓量增至886.22吨。特朗普在其推特上“官宣”了相关贸易谈判的进展情况，释放了一个非常强烈的乐观预期，助力美股三大指数开盘直线上涨，均创下历史新高。
　　
　　
　　
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