Spot Gold Thursday(11month28日)温和收涨,美市盘中最高上探至1458.20dollar/盎司,金价开盘后小幅攀升,触及日内高位后转入窄幅盘整,仍运行在1450上方。白银小幅下挫,盘中最低触及16.89dollar/盎司,银价继续运行在17美元关口下方。美元小幅转跌,美元指数最低下探至98.26, still running on98Above the gate.
小时图的下行趋势线由昨日1465Move down to1463附近。刚好与周二的反弹高点重合,那么此位也就是今天多空临界点,弱势的话,二次反弹不能过1463.这样才能进一步下行,否则上破容易走成震荡。目前由于还未下破1450延续弱势,反弹就要关注高点压制,压制成功则继续回落,突破则反弹寻求更高阻力。综合来看,今日短线操作思路上个人建议以反弹高空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注1460-1462Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1448-1450Frontline support.
【11month29日重点关注财经数据及事件】
(美股、CMEandICE旗下部分合约提前收市)
①07:30Japan10月失业率;★★★
②08:01britain11monthGfk消费者信心指数;★★★
③15:45France Q3GDP年率终值;★★★
④15:45France11monthCPI月率;★★★
⑤16:00Switzerland11monthKOF经济领先指标;★★★
⑥16:55Germany11月季调后失业人数;★★★
⑦16:55Germany11月季调后失业率;★★★
⑧17:30britain10月央行抵押贷款许可;★★★
⑨18:00eurozone11monthCPI年率初值;★★★
1018:00eurozone10月失业率;★★★
⑪21:30Canada9monthGDP月率;★★★
according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve12月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is94.8%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is5.2%; By next year1月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is86.9%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is8.4%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is4.7%。
【操作计划】
从日线来看,隔夜黄金虽然日线录得一根较长下影线的小阳,说明金价遇到较强支撑,不过,由于多头未能企稳1460,导致短期均线继续向下延伸,其中5Daily moving average at1460构成短期阻力,10日均线和布林中轨于1465-1466一线形成强压,再配合其它各周期指标维持空头排列,布林带整体偏向下行,MACD绿色动能柱不变且实体很窄,KDJ随机指标温和走弱,指示黄金下跌动能仍存,近期低点1445附近支撑,若下破该支撑,则增加后市看空信号。
gold4小时来看,尽管隔夜金价形成连阳,可今早盘多头未能延续,而随着二连阴形态的出现,当前价再次回到5日均线和布林中轨下方运行,且带动短期均线向下拐头,再加之其它各周期指标保持空头排列,尤其是20Daily moving average at1462附近向下延伸,足以体现空头的强势,另外,配合布林带整体倾向下行,MACD红色动能柱不变,短线可能继续小幅回撤。综合来看,今日短线操作建议以反弹高空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注1460-1465Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1449-1445Frontline support.
1The rebound above the gold does not break1460-1462Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1452-1454frontline;
2The pullback below the gold does not break1448-1450Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1455-1457frontline;