MBG Markets：减产传闻助升油价，多空割据金价巨震

　　
降息预期不散，澳元低位盘旋(AUD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:澳元兑美元上一交易日震幅达27Individual points, closing up0.15%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to39-40一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注布林中轨，下方支撑关注61.8%Callback bit0.6766。
　　
Fundamentals:西太平洋银行：预计明年澳洲联储将降息两次，到6月现金利率将降至0.25%，且量化宽松（QE）将在明年下半年开始；澳洲联储将倾向于在5月联邦预算公布之前暂缓降息；澳大利亚目前5.3%的失业率到明年3月将达到5.6%，并在明年底前维持在这一水平。昨日，澳洲联储主席洛威讲话称，负利率是“绝对”不可能的；尚未达到使用QE的门槛；若就业和CPI远离目标水平，澳洲联储将考虑QE，预计在未来数年就业和CPI将接近目标。
　　
减产预期助力，油价小幅回升(USOIL)
　　
Technical aspect:WTIcrude oil上一交易日收涨0.57%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFF线黏合DEA势能较小，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to59-60Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above58.75，下方支撑关注布林中轨位置。
　　
Fundamentals:据塔斯社援引3名知情人士报道，欧佩克国家已经一致支持在2020year3月到期后延长减产协议，目前正在讨论延长3Months to6个月的选项，但可能不会加大减产量。减产期限延长传闻助力油价企稳回升。加拿大皇家银行全球大宗商品策略主管Hemila Croft称，欧佩克部长级会议将于12month5day-6日举行，油价接近两个月高点。市场预期欧佩克及俄罗斯会至少将减产协定延长至明年年中。Croft预计减产协定将延长至明年3月，之后再进行评估。
　　
多空博弈激烈，金价宽幅震荡(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached128Individual points, closing up0.46%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10The double track tends to decline; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to39-40一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力布林中轨位置，下方支撑1445。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌2.78%, closing on11.54； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day2.62%, closing on16.86。 The world's largest goldETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto11month26日增持4.69吨黄金，净持仓量增至896.48吨。周二晚间现货黄金一度跌破1450The US dollar barrier.COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract Beijing Time11month26day22:40一分钟内买卖盘面成交8222手，合约总价值近12亿美元，黄金随后展开反弹，最终收复1460The US dollar barrier.
　　
　　
　　
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