Duan Haoyu:11.23美债市风险偏好金价承压，下周黄金还会涨吗？

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Duan Haoyu:11.23美债市风险偏好金价承压，下周goldWill it continue to rise?


美债市风险偏好金价承压


近期美国债市的表现支撑风险偏好情绪，给金价带来一些压力。面对创出一年多来最长连续趋平时长纪录的收益率曲线，投资者正在持续解除押注收益率曲线变陡的头寸，也就是所谓的避险头寸。

自上周初以来，两年和十年期美国国债收益率差已经缩小了大约10个基点。这种走势逆转了本月初尚在延续的那种8月末以来一直未变的收益率差持续扩大趋势。


眼下利差缩小的持续时间已经创出了2018year8月以来的最长纪录，使得一直深信收益率曲线会变陡的摩根资产管理和VanguardGroup的固定收益专家们倍感心凉。


尽管贸易不确定性使得经济增长前景笼罩了阴云，但是美联储依然示意倾向于维持利率不变，押注收益率曲线变陡背后的理由由此已不再成立，两年期国债收益率水平因此被锚定，而10年期国债收益率则持续受到贸易消息的冲击。


下周一黄金走势分析及操作策略：


现货黄金周五（11month22日）小幅反弹，美市盘中最高上探至1473.10dollar/盎司，金价在抄底买盘和空头回补的推动下一度走强，但触及日内高位后回落，走势较为震荡。从技术面来看，日线图KDJ有拐头迹象，MACD死叉信号延续，金价此前的反弹受到20Daily moving average and100Daily moving average suppression,K线十字星后紧跟阴线，短线下行风险有所增加；本周低点支撑在1456.44附近，浩雨认为若失守该支撑，则可能会重新试探上周低点1445.70附近支撑；然后6month25The daily high is supported by1439.21Nearby,8month2Daily low point support at1430.46Nearby. upper5日均线了在1468.72Nearby,20The daily moving average resistance is currently at1478.68附近，若意外顶破该阻力，则增加后市看涨信号；100The daily moving average resistance is currently at1482.36附近。此外，目前20Daily moving average underpass100日均线形成死叉，中线下行风险也显着增加；关注段浩雨dhy276Keep up with market information and grasp major trends to help you make steady profits!

Gold Short Line4hourMACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，金价偏向进一步下破布林线下轨1461.94附近支撑，金价后市偏向沿布林线下轨向下运行；进一步支撑分别在1456.44、1452.66and1445.70附近。上方布林线中轨阻力在1469.96附近，若能收复该位置，则削弱短线看空信号；进一步阻力在1474.53Nearby, the rail resistance on the Brin line is1478.00附近。综合来看，下周一短线操作思路上浩雨个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1468-1470Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1454-1456Frontline support.


Suggestions for Gold's next Monday operation:


1The rebound above the gold does not break1468-1470Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1460-1458frontline;


2The pullback below the gold does not break1454-1456Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1462-1464frontline;

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Author of this article: Duan Haoyu [reprinted, please indicate source]


authority:dhy276（VLetter official account: Duan Haoyu)


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