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我们必须懂得:舍与得,是交易哲学中的精髓!如果投资者不能平衡处理好两者的关系,就会在操作中引发心态失衡,进而让投资者把握不好时机。虽然技术分析能够增加进出场的准确性,但如果理念不到位,或技术先行理念滞后等等,都会导致心态失衡。情绪化的操作,将直接影响到投资者执行层面。知识通过学习可以得到;但是成长必须通过磨练才能收获。谈笑间用兵,强于紧张中求胜;盘前要有交易计划,盘中不要听人比划;市场没有新鲜事,只是不断在重复;赢家一定会等,输家必败在急;聪明的人懂得休息,愚笨的人川流不息;目光短浅的人难以把握真正的趋势,而机会总在绝望的边缘出现。
————Internationalcrude oilMarket trend analysis
油价周一下跌逾1%,抹去了上周的大部分涨幅,跟随美股跌势,因贸易方面的不确定性重燃。布伦特原油futures收报每桶62.44USD, down0.86美元。美国原油期货收低0.67美元,,报每桶57.05美元。两大指标原油期货上周周线均连续第二周上涨,布伦特原油上涨1.3%,美国原油上涨0.8%。张晨雷认为不乐观贸易消息推低了油价。油价已变得对贸易消息非常敏感,无论是乐观或是不乐观,油市都会有激烈的反应,需求增长乏力这一因素一直在拖油市的后腿。贸易不确定性,促使分析师下调了对原油需求增长的预期,并引发了对2020年可能出现供应过剩的担忧。
从技术面上来看,日线原油阴阳交替的不断变换,价格也是一直在58USD to56.50美元之间来回,不过整体技术面依旧是空头占优,所以日内重点关注是否会跌破56.50,正式开始进入下行通道。4小时也是再度形成双死叉形态,并且K线跌至布林带中下轨弱势区域,如果早盘能够跌破布林带下轨和MA120均线镇守的56.50In US dollars, thenMACD快慢线也将破位O轴,这样原油后续才会有更大的下行空间。小时线上,短线有小幅反弹的迹象,不过依旧是空头占优,操作上还是高空思路为主。综合来看,今日短线操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以反弹高空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注57.5-57.8Frontline resistance, short-term focus below56.2-56.0一线支撑。具体操作请关注张晨雷zc4867,市场瞬息万变,投资需谨慎,操作策略仅供参考。
————InternationalgoldMarket trend analysis
周一黄金价格探底回升,周二早盘急涨急跌,走了5美金的波动。周一收出阳K,今日是否延续还是比较关键。如果延续上升1482附近不是难事,如果没有延续,行情再度进入震荡,今日还能见到1460附近的价格。4小时走势图之中,随机指标金叉向上,上升动能弱势,整体暂时还是承压1473The suppression of.1小时随机指标从金叉变死叉,偏空向下运行,但是力度信号不够明确。张晨雷认为黄金的价格本轮修正到1484附近在进行二次下探的概率非常大甚至是回升1492附近再度向下运行也在清理之中。因此,操作上,上方在1484-1492布局一次波段空,看跌回落为主。
黄金从日线来看,震荡下跌后反弹;金价上周在1266-1557Upward trend38.2%回撤位附近获得支撑后展开反弹,5日均线出现拐头向上的迹象,KDJ初步金叉,短线存在进一步反弹机会,留意100Daily moving average1480.13附近阻力,若能收复该位置,则增加后市看涨信号;20The daily moving average resistance is currently at1484.29附近。不过,由于金价目前还受到10日均线压制,目前在1468.50附近,操作指导若回落至上周三低点1455.94下方,则削弱短线反弹信号。当然,还需下破38.2%Retreat position1446.15位置,才能打开进一步下行空间。此外,上周四高点1474.72附近阻力也值得关注,在顶破该位置前,后市仍存在下行风险;若顶破该阻力在,则料将进一步试探100Daily moving average1480附近阻力。综合来看,今日短线操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以回调做多为主,反弹高空为辅,上方短期重点关注1478-1483Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1464-1461一线支撑。若有不懂或跟不上操作的朋友可关注张晨雷レ,亻言:zc4867Get more real-time guidance.
————晨雷寄语
A common mistake made by traders is to conduct trading operations without a plan, and the results are also very unsatisfactory. Blindly placing orders by investors will inevitably lead to losses; After losing money, one will feel disheartened and extremely nervous, knowing that the market trend has changed,Still having a mentality of luck, indecisiveness, constantly relaxing the price range of stop loss stocks, or having no concept or plan of stop loss stocks at all, always hoping that the market price will completely reverse at the next resistance point, resulting in a loss that is enough to damage morale. Investors can only avoid losing again in future trading after experiencing this kind of hardship, but I need to slowly change this because it is inherent in human nature, and as long as I remind myself of this mindset in the future, I can avoid it. The psychological misconception that corresponds to the mentality of loss giving rise to luck is the mentality of profit giving rise to greed. After placing the order, the price is still rising, so why place the order; The price has started to fall, you need to take a look. When the order turns into a loss, you are even more unwilling to place an order. By the time you are forced to cut your head and enter the market, you have already suffered heavy losses.. The profitability of an investor is largely determined by their trading philosophy. If an investor's trading philosophy is conservative, then their account risk control will definitely be superior to others.
Whether it is technical analysis or fundamental analysis, there is a key point that needs to be grasped, such as when we use technical indicators to analyze market trends; We cannot predict the future direction. Only by following the development direction of the market trend can we obtain stable income and accurately predict the future market trend, which brings maximum satisfaction to self traders. It can make you feel outstanding, and no one can predict the accuracy of the market to the level required for high proportion financing exchanges. Furthermore,交易赢利并非仰赖准确的预测,这对期货的局外人而言,这有些匪夷所思,乍看之下很明显,Accurate prediction can ensure transaction profitability,Therefore, almost all traders spend extra time and money trying to learn better prediction methods. As is well known, analyzing fundamentals is not helpful in predicting trend changes, and price changes often occur before fundamental news is released. Therefore, traders turn to technical analysis.
Note: The above analysis is for reference only, and the market is constantly changing. When making an order, be sure to bring a stop loss! Investment carries risks, so be cautious when entering the industry!
张晨雷老师全方位指导时间:早7:00In the early morning of the next day2:00
全方位指导老师:张晨雷分析团队
Wen/张晨雷(官微:zc4867;公众号:张晨雷)
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