11month19日美原油期货日内策略分析

Futures marketgoldStrategy: External drivefutures｜11month19japan-us crude oilFutures intraday strategy analysis

Today's important financial data and events
15:00  Switzerland10Monthly trade account(Billion Swiss francs)
17:00  eurozone9Monthly adjusted current account(100 million euros)
19:00  britain11monthCBIIndustrial order difference
21:30  U.S.A10Total monthly construction permits(10000 households), USA10Annualized total monthly construction of new houses(10000 households)
22:00  FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在美国证券行业和金融市场协会年度会议发表讲话，并接受提问
The next day05:30  From the United States to11month15Day and WeekAPICrude oil inventory(10000 barrels)

US crude oil news:Monday(11month18day)油价从八周高点回落，WTI 12Monthly crude oil futures closed lower0.67USD, decline1.2%Report57.05dollar/Barrel; Brent1Monthly crude oil futures closed lower0.86USD, increase1.4%Report62.44dollar/桶。分析人士表示，不乐观贸易消息推低了油价。Again Capital LLCpartner John Kilduff表示，“油价已变得对贸易消息非常敏感，无论是乐观或是不乐观，油市都会有激烈的反应，需求增长乏力这一因素一直在拖油市的后腿。”
贸易不确定性，促使分析师下调了对原油需求增长的预期，并引发了对2020年可能出现供应过剩的担忧。Lipow石油公司总裁Andy Lipow表示，美国汽油季节性需求下降的预期也打击了原油价格。对2020年原油供应充足的担忧令油市承压。外媒初步调查显示，上周美国原油库存料将增加110万桶，为连续第四周增加。石油输出国组织(OPEC)上周表示，预计2020年对其原油的需求将下降，支持了该组织与俄罗斯等其他产油国组成的OPEC+可能延长限产的想法。OPEC+Will be on12month5-6日在维也纳举行的会议上讨论产量政策。他们现阶段正在执行的限产协议将于明年3月到期。此外，美国政府发表了一份报告，预计主要页岩油生产商的产量下个月将增加，EIAExpected, 12月美国主要页岩油生产商的原油日产量12Month increase49000桶，至913万桶；下个月二叠纪盆地的日产量预计增加57000Bucket.
周一，美国国务卿蓬佩奥表示，美国政府不再认为约旦河西岸的以色列定居点与国际法相违背。分析认为，这一表态或将受到以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的欢迎，而激怒巴勒斯坦，冲突的加剧对油价以及加元都会产生影响。
另外，也门媒体报道，胡塞武装在红海抢占三艘船只，其中一艘属于沙特。尽管昨日对油价影响不大，但是这也将影响中东局势，其后续发酵也将对市场造成一定的波动。
Technical aspects of US crude oil:Looking at the daily crude oil market, the Bollinger Bands are moving upwards on the third track,MA5/MA10均线呈金叉缓和运行，KLine intersection between the upper and middle tracks in BolinMA5/MA10Below the moving average,MACD快慢线位于零轴上方呈金叉收口运行红色动能微弱，KDJ三线交死叉向下运行，日图上涨行情减弱，但整体表现依旧处于上升趋势中；4小时图上，布林带三轨小幅下行，MA5/MA10均线交死叉，KThe line intersects between the middle and lower tracks in Bolin,MACD快慢线死叉下行绿色动能小幅放量，KDJ三线呈死叉向下发散运行，油价短线表现虽然偏弱，但未作出明显突破前依旧看震荡。
综合来看，日内操作上建议低多为主。下方初步支撑在56.5Nearby, further support is provided55.8；上方初步阻力在57.3Nearby, the resistance in the next step is58.2。
US crude oil（01Contract trading strategy
1Above57.2-57.3Short term short selling, stop loss0.3, Objective56.5Let's take a look55.8；
2Below56.6-56.5短线做多，止损0.3, Objective57.3/58.2Nearby;
Reading instructions: Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution. This analysis is provided by the Futures Gold Strategy and is for reference only. It is not intended as the final basis for placing orders.

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